Archive for January, 2009

Back to Neutral

Wednesday, January 28th, 2009

We continue to unravel the burst to the upside during the week containing New Years Day. The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell -3.3% last week.  The Venture Exchange did a little better with just a -0.7% drop and the major US indexes had declines of -2% to -3.5%.

From the chart below we see that the %Up number has decreased again to 48%.
% of Stocks Advancing in the S&P/TSX Composite - 20090123

As we’ve mentioned before, the New Years Spike was not a buy-signal, since those suddenly positive trends were tiny and had no consistency to speak of.  We’re still comfortable with the current situation as long as any further drops don’t take our index down to 30% or lower again.  That would be a serious concern.

A few of the industry indexes still have positive trend values.  MATERIALS remain pretty strong and could imply a directional change, although the improvement of gold stocks are a major influence on that index. The S&P/TSX Gold Index rose +11% last week as bullion jumped above $900/oz.
The other positive groups are just barely so, so we won’t bother commenting on those.

And, once again, we’ll keep our commentary short, for lack of anything else that’s worth talking about.

That doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t look at our DATA & CHARTS workbook.  Who knows when some interesting opportunities might arise and when? We need to be ready to re-invest when the time comes.

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