A Time to Celebrate Life… Not the Markets!
December 28th, 2008
Season’s Greetings, investors and traders!
We’re heading into last few days of trading for 2008. Let’s hope we have better results in store for 2009.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index dropped -2.8% last week with limited trading due to Christmas and Boxing Day exchange closures.
Losses on the US major indexes were more modest, but losses all the same.
The percentage of stocks with positive trend values (based on a 10-week exponential moving average) dropped back to 30% from 39% the previous week.
Some analysts would take this chart pattern as being positive, nonetheless, provided that the %-up figure doesn’t drop back to around 15% or less. For one thing we’re well off our all-time low of 2% on October 10. Another thing, that is usually a positive sign, is that the improvement from the bottom shows a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. It would take a new low below 17% to cause some concern that the worst is not over; and we may see further declines or at least a sideways consolidation pattern.
From an index perspective, MATERIALS dropped -3% last week, but the group index still has a positive trend value of 1.4%/week. The CONSUMER STAPLES index also has a marginally positive trend value. You’ll find more details as usual in the DATA & CHARTS workbook.
It’s hard to imagine that the last few trading days will make a difference, so we’ll have to concede that the S&P/TSX Composite Index has lost 40% of its value this year. The S&P/TSX Venture Index lost an excruciating 75%!
The full-year results are very similar in the US. The S&P500 is off -41% and the Nasdaq down -43%.
We’ll have a more detailed report of year-end results next week, along with some tips for tackling the new year.
Meanwhile, just sit back and enjoy this all-too-brief holiday season! Cheers!