SYNOPSIS
Last week’s results turned sour compared to the week before. The biggest one-week losses were among US companies, as summarized by the major indexes.
Trading Activity… As the week progressed we decided to halt our buying spree in the ProfiTrend Portfolio. The annualized growth rate for the PTP slipped to 157%, from its rather overdone level of 265% the previous week. That compares with AGRs of 13% for the S&P 500 and 18% for the S&P/TSX Composite Index companies.
Topic of the Week… What’s a Big Move in the Markets and What’s Not?
Every day the business media hysteria pump keeps churning out headlines that purportedly are related to the change in the Dow Industrials or S&P 500. With a 100 point or more drop in the DJI, it might be “Investors Spooked by Crimean Crisis!”. The very next day, with a 50 point gain in the same index, the headline might be “Investors Unfazed by Ukraine Incident!”. So which is correct? “Spooked” or “Unfazed”? …when essentially nothing happened in Ukraine from one day to the next. And, furthermore, is a 100 point move in the Dow a big move or not? Subjectively, a 3-digit number like 100 may seem much larger than a 2-digit number like 99, but is it really enough to contact your broker and say “Sell everything!”. Of course not!
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Seasonality… We have Brooke Thackray’s videos for March this week. Better late than never. We don’t recommend investing based solely on calendar effects, but an alignment of our own buying preferences and the probability boost from seasonality can’t hurt.
Video of the Week… We bring you a half-hour interview with billionaire George Soros. Soros has built his fortune watching political and economic events as they develop globally. Among his accomplishments he notoriously “…broke the Bank of England” in the 90s. The UK as a country earned a value lesson from that experience… you can’t expect to win when one man is betting $10 billion against you! Nowadays, Soros is as active as ever at 83 years of age. His rare interviews on the global economic scene are definitely worth watching.
State Street Investor Confidence Index… The latest data for February are included. After the huge jump in “smart money” investing in stocks in January, there was more follow-through around the globe in February. Apparently, those managing multi-billion dollar accounts ignore the media as much as we do!