Understanding Fat Tails & What They Mean to Your Profitability

SYNOPSIS

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Unfortunately, it hasn’t been just October where US stocks have been outperforming Canadian equities. Over the past 5 years the S&P 500 has risen 55%, whereas the S&P/TSX Composite Index is up an anemic 13%. We have to remind ourselves that Canada is still primarily a commodity-driven economy (base metals, oil, agriculture, livestock, forest products, etc.) And unlike business cycles, commodity super cycles last 20-35 years! The last upswing (16 years in duration) ended in 2011, so we’re only into year 7 of the current downswing with perhaps another 8-10 years to go. And progress toward expanding a Canadian presence in other sectors has been painfully slow.

Day by Day… The bounce initiated the previous week continued this past week, up until ”Hump Day” that is (Wednesday.) Stock prices retreated from there, but remained positive on the week.

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We did add two new positions to the PTP last week, but neither were North American stocks. We can wait for a better investment climate in Canada and the US.

PTA Perspective… Understanding Fat Tails & What They Mean to Your Profitability
One of our core themes within the ProfiTrend Advantage framework is “cut your losses and let your profits run”. It’s age-old investment advice, but it is surprising how few people take it. Or if they understand and believe in the concept, they do very little to implement it in their routine trading activities. We’ll dig into some statistics from a major piece of research we discovered this past week to show you how important this advice really is.

Cannabis Corner… This newish feature continues weekly for the time being. We’ll be following the weekly performance of some of the major stocks and ETFs, and sharing some news, facts and figures that you might find interesting.