SYNOPSIS
Canadian stocks declined last week, while US equities continued to show (albeit modest) gains. September is normally the worst month of the year statistically, but there are always exceptions.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… Our PTP annualized growth rate is now at 78%, down just a touch from the previous report. That compares with 21% for the S&P 500 and just 7% for the S&P/TSX Composite Index.

Seasonality… We continue our discussion of what September might have in store as far as calendar effects go.
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State Street Investor Confidence Index… The latest results for August were published here two weeks ago. As usual we keep that section intact for a month until the next report is issued. The current global index is at 122.8… up 7.2 points from July. 100 is considered the neutral point in the balance between risky assets (i.e. stocks) and low risk assets (i.e. bonds). The regional breakdown continues to favour European equities right now.

Topic of the Week… Sell in May and Go Away – Interim Report Card 2014
Over the last month or two, we’ve experienced more buying than selling in the ProfiTrend Portfolio, so we thought that it might be a good idea to objectively review whether the “Sell in May and Go Away” tactic may be valid this year. Our conclusions (with 1½ moths to go in the “worst 6 months” time period) aren’t so bad at all. We’re still net positive as you’ll see below.