SYNOPSIS

Yes, it’s terrifying being chained to a bicycle careening down a mountain with no brakes! Especially when the TV news media’s main mission these days is to generate fear to the point of hysteria. That keeps the eyeballs coming back and media ad revenue going through the roof… all at the viewers’ expense. But you’re not really chained on. You can make it stop by turning it off. Get just the information you need in a controlled fashion from reliable print sources (onscreen or old-fashion newspapers). Or, better yet, just access the emotionless raw data and calculate your own conclusions.

Last week… We experienced a pull-back this past week after three consecutive weeks of advances for our two favourite indexes. Not much to worry about (yet).

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PTP… The S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index APARs declined 7 and 10 points respectively, and our PTP APAR dropped about 100 points to a still-respectable level above 500%.

PTA Perspective… Transportation as a Service (TaaS): Another Thematic Exploration
This week we begin coverage of a new thematic sector that has some challenges… Transportation as a Service (TaaS). We’re poised not only to shift from gasoline/diesel fuelled vehicles to electric, but also to transition to ride-sharing as an alternative to vehicle ownership. And, that is only the beginning. So, in this week’s Perspective section, we offer the beginnings of a tutorial in how to prepare for investing in what promises to be an exciting growth area involving a number of disruptive technologies.

SYNOPSIS

Yes, the general consensus seems to be that the US Federal Reserve is keeping the bull market alive and well. But are low interest rates all that’s involved? What happened to earnings, and the economic devastation associated with Covid-19? Anyway, we don’t have a better explanation, but that’s a lot of bull for one bicycle!

Last week… Well, this is three consecutive weeks of advances for our two favourite indexes, after about 6 weeks of up-down-up-down etc.

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PTP… The S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index APARs had some nice gains of 20-30 points each, and our PTP APAR leaped ahead about 100.

PTA Perspective… Pandemic Stocks Revisited
We’ve been making some almost indecent profits with pandemic stocks lately, so we thought you might like to hear more, after we first covered this topic in the June 28 edition of TrendWatch Weekly. It’s definitely high risk, but that’s always where the biggest profits reside. (Sadly, also, from time to time, massive losses.)

SYNOPSIS

Yes, let’s not forget that! That’s why we want to make as much money as we can as fast as we can, so that we can be very grateful!

Last week… Last week we came just short of saying “if this past week’s one-week numbers are up, then next week’s will be down”. The zig-zag was so consistent for 4-8 weeks in a row. But this would be just the time for two consecutive up-weeks, wouldn’t it! Yep! Some reasonable gains on top of even larger gains the previous week. Let’s not try to predict zig-zags!
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PTP… The S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index APARs shrunk (each by at least 10 points), while we added 200 points to the PTP APAR. No complaints here!

PTA Perspective… 2020 – Q2 Review – Global Perspective
Yes, it’s quarterly review time once again. Last time we brought you the North American assessment of Q2 over Q1. This week we go global by sizing up the performance of world-wide ETFs and ADRs. We’ll take you through the details in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

Always use the data! We get too many opinions and recommendations from “analysts” in the BizMedia that don’t analyze anything at all! They’ll interview a few executives at a company, take their “guidance” from their boss about which stocks to promote, and suddenly there will be a “data-free” analysis. Then it’s just a matter of getting on Bloomberg or CNBC or whatever and spreading the word.

Last week… The zig-zag continues. There haven’t been two or more consecutive weeks where these major indexes moved in the same direction in over a month now. Just back and forth. Last week we zigged up!
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PTP… The S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index APARs have advanced, as has our PTP score.

PTA Perspective… 2020 – Q2 Review – North America
Yes, it’s quarterly review time once again. Although Q2 markets managed to undo a lot of the damage inflicted by the first quarter, we’ll have a ways to go if 2020 is to end with net gains over 2019. Let us take you through the details in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

“Totally Nuts” is the new normal… for now. Major indexes rise as the economy of every country falters. Gold, which normally rises in value mainly when stock markets are collapsing, is rising in spite of that. Meanwhile, as the media continue their fear-mongering, investors shrug it off. If that isn’t “Totally Nuts”, we don’t know what is!

Last week… Once again the most recent week went the opposite direction of the week before. So, we’re back on the minus side this time.
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PTP… The S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index APARs have pulled back substantially this past week, while we managed to maintain a pretty decent PTP score.

PTA Perspective… COVID-19: Have You Found the Cure?
We turned Covid-19 into a thematic sector for do-it-yourself investors this past week, and show you our results in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly. We’ve assembled a list of 40 companies who claim to be be working on testing, treatments or a vaccine for our annoying virus, and calculated all the trend and consistency values for your perusal.

SYNOPSIS

Magic does pay better than facts. That’s why ill-informed investors are so quick to lose the money that they’ve invested. They go with someone’s (magic) stock picks, because they think that the stock picker must be smart. They’re not! Investors need a disciplined personal strategy to be successful. You need to control your own investments with a well-defined methodology.

Last week… This is getting redundant. The most recent week is the opposite of the week before. So, we’re back on the plus side this time.
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PTP… The S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index APARs have pulled back this week, while we managed to almost double the PTP score. No secrets. Just buying some of the best stocks with positive trends.

PTA Perspective… The End of Leveraged ETNs & ETFs???
We need to talk. Although we’ve encouraged leveraged ETFs for a number of reasons over the years, there may be a concerted plan to shut many of them down. This is an important update, and we’ve deferred the previously planned topic to make you aware that this is serious.

SYNOPSIS

I read this cartoon as a spin on the expression, “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it!”. The goal of the do-it-yourself investor/trader is to adopt a self-tailor investment system that performs reliably well. Also, it should be a simple as possible. We want to make as much money as we can, as fast as we can, but we don’t want to work too hard to do that! So, experiment if you like with alternative or supplemental strategies. We encourage that. But don’t abandon your tried-and-true approach, while thinking outside your comfortable box.

Last week… Last week’s results were almost exactly the opposite of those the previous week. Close to the same (large) numbers, but with minus signs in front of them this time.
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PTP… As you would expect, a large negative one-week move has a negative impact on the weekly trends, which get exaggerated further (multiplied) when annualized. Nonetheless all three APARs are still positive. Remember that the S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 APARs hit record 10-year highs just the previous week. The current numbers are still well above average. The 9-year medians for the APARs are… TSX 11%, S&P 16%, PTP 121%. So, although our PTP score has retreated over the past couple weeks, we are still ahead of our long-term average.

PTA Perspective… Requesting New Topics!
We need your help folks! Maybe it’s just pre-summer doldrums, but we’ve been coming up short lately on topics for the Perspective section. Let us know what you’d like to see covered in our more detailed PTA Perspective section of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

Yes, you have to wonder when even the bulls are wondering why the markets are climbing so fast in one of the gloomiest geopolitical crisis times in history! But our job is to profit, not to wonder why!

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Last week… Last week’s results blew away the great advance of a week earlier! Where is all this investment capital coming from?

PTP… Yes, I’m sure that most of you realized that the PTP APAR of 1093% last week couldn’t last. But even at half-that we’re happy. The biggest news from our perspective though, is that triple-digit S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 APARs are virtual unheard of. What’s more, these are the highest values we’ve seen since we began tracking APARs about a decade ago. We know that these rates can’t last, but can you imagine 140-150% returns from a portfolio of S&P/TSX Composite Index or S&P 500 stocks in one calendar year?

SYNOPSIS

With record unemployment, the global economy on the brink of recession due to draconian pandemic lockdowns, and Trump attempting to escalate tensions with China, it’s difficult to imagine what is driving the stock markets higher. Accommodative central bank policies (i.e. negative interest rates when adjusted for inflation) and government bailouts certainly help, but they can’t go on indefinitely. So the remaining possible reason for rising stock prices is FOMO (fear of missing out). With a rebound that practically rules out the “dead cat bounce” thesis, new investor money is allegedly rushing in so as to capture any remaining returns as markets push up toward previous highs.

Last week… This past week’s 5-day performance (4-days in the US) was pretty positive, as was the previous week.
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PTP… The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR was close to unchanged at 76%, but the S&P 500 score rose from 42% to 79%. Meanwhile our incremental portfolio repair tactics doubled our PTP APAR to 1093%. As we’ve mentioned before, restarting from 100% cash almost always results in some wild fluctuations due to very short holding times initially. The fluctuations tend to normalize somewhat as the portfolio grows in holdings and buy-dates become more staggered.

PTA Perspective… New Bull Staying Power?
This week we offset last week’s discussion of the major indexes being too top-heavy with large tech stocks, with some other evidence that we’re seeing more breadth in the market. But to see breadth you have to look at numbers that are more equally weighted across all stocks. We know how to do that.

SYNOPSIS

This definition is, unfortunately, all too accurate! Investors will buy a stock, watch it fall, and claim that it was a long-term investment in the first place. You have to wait. It’ll go up eventually! The stock-picking analysts you see interviewed on TV are exactly the same… “we’re not into this for short-term returns, just the long-term.” That’s how they explain away dozens, even hundreds of losses. Amazingly, they keep their jobs, and get interviewed over and over again! And then, yes, if they do have short-term gains, they sell them right away, instead of waiting for long-term gains! We know better, of course, but it’s amusing to see this losers scenario replay indefinitely!

Last week… This past week’s 5-day performance (4-days in Canada) was pretty positive. The previous week’s sell off was pretty much offset by new gains.

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PTA Perspective… Indexes vs Reality
A number of analysts have coincidentally discovered that just five Information Technology companies are pretty much determining the movements of the major US indexes… DJI, S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Such is the nature of capitalization-weighted equities indexes. They totally obscure what’s happening in the broader markets. More in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.