1st Quarter Review – 2014

SYNOPSIS
Last week’s results were quite positive in spite of Friday’s sell off in momentum stocks. Since up-trending = high momentum, that means those of us still holding. There will always be set-backs like this from time to time. We’ve just got to roll with the punches, and keep a rigorous approach to handling losses in place.

Trading Activity… There was more selling in the ProfiTrend Portfolio this past week. The annualized growth rate for the PTP is at 108%… still quite respectable. That compares with AGRs of 20% for the S&P 500 and 23% for the S&P/TSX Composite Index companies.

We’ve been selling stocks gradually over the past two weeks in the ProfiTrend Portfolio with our standard sell signals, so it’s not like Thursday and Friday suddenly came out of nowhere. The beauty of relative trend analysis™ (RTA) is that our signals take us out of the markets (when necessary) in a systematic fashion. There are rarely any sudden surprises.

Topic of the Week… 1st Quarter Review – 2014

There are too many reasons which can lead to erectile dysfunction. Discover More cheap cialis Will you continue smoking, if it badly harms buy cialis overnight your sexual health and well being. discount generic cialis Often, these children blame their parents for not helping them; this distrust of relationships carries onto adulthood. If you can’t make love with your reference best price on levitra partner, you get erection which is natural. Well, we’re into April now, so the first quarter of the year is already behind us. It’s time to have a look at what has worked and not worked in terms of profits and losses over the past three months. That’s this week’s topic. Some parts of the results may just feel obvious to you, but there are always a few surprises, since the biz media focus on drama… not on what is actually happening.

Seasonality… We have Brooke Thackray’s videos for April this week. We don’t recommend investing based solely on calendar effects, but an alignment of our own buying preferences and the probability boost from seasonality can’t hurt.

Video of the Week… Michael Lewis’ latest book, Flash Boys, has created quite a stir in the Wall Street community. It explores the world of high-frequency trading to separate legitimate advantages of the technology from applications that would be illegal if human traders were doing exactly the same thing. We actually bring you two videos… a more sympathetic discuss between Michael Lewis and The Daily Show’s Jon Stewart, and a more adversarial interview with Bloomberg TV.

State Street Investor Confidence Index… The latest data for March are still posted. The institutional investors continue to favour risk (stocks) over safety (bonds), while being unfazed by the US attempt to create another Cold War. Apparently, those managing multi-billion dollar accounts ignore the media as much as we do!

Q&A – Part 2: Taking on Our Readers’ More Challenging Questions

SYNOPSIS

Last week’s results were a mess, with all of the major indexes taking losses, except for the DJI, which managed a very small gain.

Trading Activity… There was nothing but selling in the ProfiTrend Portfolio. The annualized growth rate (AGR) for the PTP slipped to 69%, from far loftier heights a few weeks ago. That compares with AGRs of 11-12% for both the S&P 500 and the S&P/TSX Composite Index constituents.

Topic of the Week… Q&A – Part 2: Taking on Our Readers’ More Challenging Questions

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We answer another round of subscriber questions this week, before getting back to more substantive topics in the weeks to come. You can expect a 1Q2014 review next week.

Seasonality… We bring you a sneak preview for April as far as calendar effects are concerned. We’ll augment that with Brooke Thackray’s monthly seasonality videos, which will probably be available in a week or so. HINT: Keep an eye on Energy stocks during April.

State Street Investor Confidence Index… The recent data on what the “smart money” institutional investors have been doing in March is included. The results are updated monthly. The SSICI fell just 2.5 points in March to 120.2. Anything above 100 is clearly pro-equities vs. pro-bonds and other more conservative investments.

Video of the Week… Mark Yusko, of Morgan Creek Capital Management, has some interesting things to say about the outlook for equities, especially the positive outlook for Japan, and the concept of investor’s “edge”.

Q&A: Taking on Our Readers’ More Challenging Questions

SYNOPSIS
Last week’s results favoured US stocks, although the trend rankings are still showing Canadian equities up front.

Trading Activity… There was no trading in the ProfiTrend Portfolio. The annualized growth rate for the PTP slipped to 102%, from its rather lofty level of 265% two weeks ago. That compares with AGRs of 20% for both the S&P 500 and the S&P/TSX Composite Index constituents.

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So, founder of the private research institute of autism in San Diego psychologist Bernard Rimland sure that is especially dangerous for viagra samples people, who have heart diseases. You can buy Shilajit capsule, robertrobb.com online viagra NF Cure capsule and Mast Mood oil are the best examples of it. This generic sales viagra particular capsule is too much efficient to prevent the problem of frequent nightfall, increase the volume of semen during sexual activity. It’s one of the most popular herb available in generic cialis online almost every country. Topic of the Week… Q&A: Taking on Our Readers’ More Challenging Questions
After a long dry spell of no one-on-one interactions with readers via email, some questions and comments have been rolling in. Some required personalized responses, but we’ve picked some that may be of more general interest, and answered them in this week’s edition. We welcome feedback in the form of questions, comments, suggestions and even critiques if they’re presented in a constructive manner.

Seasonality… We bring you a sneak preview for April as far as calendar effects are concerned. We’ll augment that with Brooke Thackray’s monthly seasonality videos, which will probably be available in a week or two.

State Street Investor Confidence Index… Brand new data on what the “smart money” institutional investors have been doing in March. The SSICI fell just 2.5 points in March to 120.2. This confirms what most of the world already knows… the “Crisis” in “Crimean Crisis” is a fabrication created by the US government and fuelled by their puppet media. It does not worry institutional investors at all, and they have billions of dollars at risk. More below.

What’s a Big Move in the Markets and What’s Not?

SYNOPSIS
Last week’s results turned sour compared to the week before. The biggest one-week losses were among US companies, as summarized by the major indexes.

Trading Activity… As the week progressed we decided to halt our buying spree in the ProfiTrend Portfolio. The annualized growth rate for the PTP slipped to 157%, from its rather overdone level of 265% the previous week. That compares with AGRs of 13% for the S&P 500 and 18% for the S&P/TSX Composite Index companies.

Topic of the Week… What’s a Big Move in the Markets and What’s Not?
Every day the business media hysteria pump keeps churning out headlines that purportedly are related to the change in the Dow Industrials or S&P 500. With a 100 point or more drop in the DJI, it might be “Investors Spooked by Crimean Crisis!”. The very next day, with a 50 point gain in the same index, the headline might be “Investors Unfazed by Ukraine Incident!”. So which is correct? “Spooked” or “Unfazed”? …when essentially nothing happened in Ukraine from one day to the next. And, furthermore, is a 100 point move in the Dow a big move or not? Subjectively, a 3-digit number like 100 may seem much larger than a 2-digit number like 99, but is it really enough to contact your broker and say “Sell everything!”. Of course not!

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Seasonality… We have Brooke Thackray’s videos for March this week. Better late than never. We don’t recommend investing based solely on calendar effects, but an alignment of our own buying preferences and the probability boost from seasonality can’t hurt.

Video of the Week… We bring you a half-hour interview with billionaire George Soros. Soros has built his fortune watching political and economic events as they develop globally. Among his accomplishments he notoriously “…broke the Bank of England” in the 90s. The UK as a country earned a value lesson from that experience… you can’t expect to win when one man is betting $10 billion against you! Nowadays, Soros is as active as ever at 83 years of age. His rare interviews on the global economic scene are definitely worth watching.

State Street Investor Confidence Index… The latest data for February are included. After the huge jump in “smart money” investing in stocks in January, there was more follow-through around the globe in February. Apparently, those managing multi-billion dollar accounts ignore the media as much as we do!

Why The Media Will Never Understand The ProfiTrend Advantage

SYNOPSIS
Join me in wishing the Bull Market a Happy Birthday!

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Five years ago (March 9) the stock market, reeling from the financial crisis, hit bottom. The Dow closed at just under 6,500 and the S&P 500 ended at 676.5. Since March 9, 2009, the Dow and the S&P 500 have more than doubled.

Your profits and our profits over the past five years are a constant reminder that we can not only match but exceed the average gains with relative trend analysis™ (RTA).

Last week’s results were pretty positive overall, with the S&P 500 hitting another new high. Canadian small caps, which had a set-back the previous week, bounced back with the best gains from among the indexes we report.

Trading Activity… We bought three new stocks the ProfiTrend Portfolio last week. The annualized growth rate for the PTP is now 265%, up from 137% last week. That compares with AGRs of 28% for the S&P 500 and 29% for the S&P/TSX Composite Index companies.

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This week’s edition is oriented to newer subscribers, but it can’t hurt to refresh the memories of those of you who have followed us for years, if not decades.

The hurdle we have with newer readers is that we are not like any other conventional investment newsletter, so it takes a while to get used to our style. We don’t offer specific stock recommendations. We don’t set price targets or otherwise make predictions for major market indexes. We ignore the business media as much as we can (with a few exceptions); and we take a systematic approach to eliminating the biggest mistakes that investors make.

Most of all, we encourage and try to facilitate a truly self-directed approach to making large profits in the markets. Few investors ever do well by copying someone else, or blindly buying recommended stocks. Those that get ahead develop and follow a system that they’re comfortable with. We help you get there, even if we’ll never know exactly what you’re doing. That’s your business, not ours.

One of the editions of TrendWatch Weekly that has resonated with a lot of readers is one that was published in October, 2010. It explains our general distain for the business media and Biz TV in particular. And, at the same time, it explains our overall approach to investing in colloquial terms that even a business journalist should understand. Unfortunately, they don’t. I think that you’ll enjoy this fun “pseudo-interview”. It’ll also help you put everything we do in perspective.

Seasonality… We were expecting Brooke Thackray’s monthly seasonality videos this past week, but they’ve apparently been delayed. All the same, we provide some calendar-related expectations that you can normally find in March.

State Street Investor Confidence Index… The latest data for February are included. After the huge jump in “smart money” investing in stocks in January, there was more follow-through around the globe in February. Apparently, those managing multi-billion dollar accounts ignore the media as much as we do!

Towards Automating Investment Research & Decision Making

SYNOPSIS
All the major indexes we report had at least modest gains last week. US equities performed a little better than Canadian counterparts, but the trends still favour Canadian stocks.

Trading Activity… We sold one stock in the ProfiTrend Portfolio last week and bought five new ones (three Canadian, two American). The annualized growth rate for the PTP is now 137%, up from 99% last week. That compares with AGRs of 28% for the S&P 500 and 29% for the S&P/TSX Composite Index companies.

Topic of the Week… Towards Automating Investment Research & Decision Making
It supplies blood immediately after ingesting this medication but only if an individual drink avoids food ingestion and if a man drinks alcohol or grape juice while its consumption, cheap tadalafil then this medicine would take huge time to react on organ. Manufacturers of brand drugs cialis professional online spend a lot of money on ED treatment. And even if it doesn’t help it certainly won’t have side effects that are associated to other prescribed drugs. ordering viagra It can raindogscine.com cialis prescription be treated by Kamagra. If our primary goal is to make as much money as we can as fast as we can via Relative Trend Analysis ™ and other complementary techniques, then our secondary goal should be to conduct our regular research activities as efficiently as possible in order to make the best decisions as fast as possible. That’s this week’s topic. Since we all likely have somewhat different trading strategies overall, we’ll offer you some general guidelines to putting the pieces together, whether you perform your analyses weekly (as we do for the most part), or more frequently, or less frequently. We won’t assume that you have state-of-the-art technical analysis software and real-time data feeds, so don’t worry about that. If you know your way around a spreadsheet like Microsoft Excel, you should be able to take advantage of what we have for you this week.

Video of the Week… Jim Cramer on active trading vs. index investing.

State Street Investor Confidence Index… The latest data for February are included. After the huge jump in “smart money” investing in stocks in January, there was more follow-through around the globe in February. Apparently, those managing multi-billion dollar accounts ignore the media as much as we do!

Gold Rush! Here to Stay for a While?

SYNOPSIS
Following the spectacular results of the week earlier, we couldn’t have expected a whole lot more of the same, and we didn’t. There were one week declines (mainly in the US), with Nasdaq gaining a little. Canadian small caps are on a roll, fuelled to a large extent by precious metal stocks.

Trading Activity… We sold one stock in the ProfiTrend Portfolio last week and 25% of another position (we couldn’t get a full sale by the closing bell Friday). We also put some of our large cash position back to work by adding 5 new stocks (4 Canadian, 1 US ETN). The annualized growth rate for the PTP is now 99%, up from 45% last week. That compares with AGRs of 20% for the S&P 500 and 31% for the S&P/TSX Composite Index companies. Our simple but effective “Speedo Chart” continues to be one of the best tools we’ve ever devised for portfolio management and tracking. It provides incentive to stay ahead of the benchmarks and makes selling losing positions feel really good!

Topic of the Week… Gold Rush! Here to Stay for a While? The media have been working for months now on all the reasons that gold and gold stocks have done so poorly for so long. Now they can’t come up with any reasons why bullion and the companies that take it out of the ground are suddenly doing so well… without making themselves look like total fools (a reasonable conclusion!) We’ll try to unravel what’s going on as our topic of the week. We’ll let you decide whether you think we’re on the right track or not.
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Video of the Week… More on marijuana! You won’t believe how big this market is set to become according to the venture capitalist in this interview. He has spent four years investigating what’s happening world-wide in order to be ready to invest in the cannabis companies that show the most promise.

State Street Investor Confidence Index… The latest data for February are included. After the huge jump in “smart money” investing in stocks in January, there was follow through around the globe in February. Apparently, those managing multi-billion dollar accounts ignore the media as much as we do!

Niche Investing: The Dope on Dope!

SYNOPSIS
Last week we had a really nice extension of the one week gains a week earlier, resulting in 2-4% gains for the major indexes that we report.

Trading Activity… We sold 1 position in the ProfiTrend Portfolio this past week, but are actively looking for opportunities to invest a currently over-sized cash position. The annualized growth rate for the PTP is now 45%, compared to 22% for the S&P 500 and 29% for the S&P/TSX Composite Index companies. This falls short of the customary lead of the PTP over our benchmarks, but we’ve only held our current (smaller set of) holdings for an average of 4 weeks!

Topic of the Week… Niche Investing: The Dope on Dope!
Warning: You may find that this week’s topic gives you the munchies. Have some snacks nearby!
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We have at least a few followers here who like to play super low-priced stocks that have no earnings now (or perhaps ever). More often than not these are different from other “loser small caps”, because their business is in a niche area that may one day develop into something big. We think a perfect example of this to kick-off a discussion on niche investing is the legalization of marijuana. Believe it or not, here are already publicly traded companies in this “blossoming” business out there with no earnings and questionable prospects. But that doesn’t mean that will always be the case.

The point is that niche investing logically can’t rely on traditional fundamental analysis, and the technical analytics have serious drawbacks too, as you’ll see below. This is a leap of faith way to invest, that we don’t recommend to most investors; but let’s talk about it anyway. More below.

State Street Investor Confidence Index… The latest data for the month of January are included. The results are showing that the “smart money” is pouring into stocks like crazy! Biggest jump in the index in four years!

Are You Working Your Investment Accounts to the Max?

SYNOPSIS
Last week was a reversal of the previous one, with one week improvements among all the major indexes that we report.

Trading Activity… We sold 3 positions in the ProfiTrend Portfolio last week. The annualized growth rate for the PTP is now 76%, compared to 147% the previous week. Yes, a big drop, but the good news is that we sold a very large position with a 281% profit! More on that below, but our current 76% still compares favourably with -2% for the S&P 500 and +17% for the S&P/TSX Composite Index companies. With our long time winner out of the race, it’s not surprising that the average of our remaining contenders will drop, especially since we’ve only held them for an average of 3 weeks!

Topic of the Week… Are You Working Your Investment Accounts to the Max?
Although money management and investing are obviously related, they also have some pronounced differences. Furthermore, one can be very good at one or the other, but not necessarily at both. This week we want to step aside from investing per se and review the ins and outs of the accounts you use to manage your money. Recent studies show that many investors may do well at trading stocks, but don’t really understand the full opportunities available to them in the different kinds of accounts they have set up.

Can You Recover Without Antidepressants for Depression? Some doctors, particularly psychiatrists whose job it is to prescribe medications, will tell you that you need antidepressants for depression if you have any chance of eliminating this mental http://deeprootsmag.org/2013/01/15/in-her-own-words-up-and-coming-illustrator-sairom-moon/ where buy viagra health problem from your life. This plant contains viagra online sample various chemicals like punarnavaoside, rotenoids, lignans, flavones and sterols. The literature points to a broad range of backgrounds for teachers; some with a deeprootsmag.org viagra uk high school education and little or no experience with young kids, and others competent as certified teachers with a college or graduate school education. For example, it is viagra in very difficult to keep accurate. We lay the blame for this on the banks and financial institutions that want to extract as much of our money as possible within the accounts they set up for us. In cases such as RSPs, RIFs, RESPs, TFSAs, etc. the banks don’t set the rules. The government does. But by keeping you unaware of all of the options provided by these government sponsored programmes, the banks can optimize the fees they extract. While doing so, they’ll try to convince you that they have your own best interests at heart.

With apologies to those who are already well-informed on these matters, this week’s discussion is intended for the majority (according to the surveys) who clearly are being misinformed or at least ill-informed by their financial institutions about the options available in the accounts they’ll set up for you.

Seasonality… We repeat the most common calendar effects that you might expect in February in text format, and include two videos from Brooke Thackray, our typical source for calendar effects. Lately Thackray has been putting his thoughts out monthly on YouTube… one video on the markets in general, and one on sectors. Check them out and see if you agree with his opinions.

State Street Investor Confidence Index… The latest data for the month of January are included. The results are showing that the “smart money” is pouring into stocks like crazy! Biggest jump in the index in four years!

The Vicissitudes of Volume

SYNOPSIS
Another negative week across the board, but not enough to turn Canadian trends for the major indexes negative. S&P 500 and DJI stocks continue to trend lower.

Trading Activity… There were 5 trades in the ProfiTrend Portfolio last week… 2 buys, 3 sells. The annualized growth rate for the PTP is now 147%, compared to -12% for the S&P 500 and +9% for the S&P/TSX Composite Index companies.

Topic of the Week… The Vicissitudes of Volume
With our primary focus on stock and index price trends, we haven’t talked about trading volume much over the past five or six years. Now is probably a good time to discuss this topic in more detail. There are a number of ways to factor trading volume into your investment strategies, and we’ll walk you through some of them.
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Seasonality… We summarize the most common calendar effects that you might expect in February.

State Street Investor Confidence Index… The latest data for the month of January are included, and the results are almost unbelievable! The “smart money” is pouring into stocks like crazy! Biggest jump in the index in four years!

Alternative Views on Video… We’ve added a new feature that involves short interviews with well-known investors and traders. The general idea is to keep an open mind about alternative opinions and investment techniques. This week we feature Jeremy Siegel on where US stocks are going in 2014.