SYNOPSIS
On a one-week basis, S&P/TSX Venture Index stocks finally joined the party with a 2.9% gain. The S&P/TSX Small Cap Index rose 1.6%, putting it at the top of the trend rankings for the indexes that we track. All other indexes were positive on a one week basis, and by their trend values.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… Our PTP annualized growth rate is now up to 237%, well ahead of the comparable stats for the S&P 500 (32%) and the S&P/TSX Composite Index (25%).

State Street Investor Confidence Index… The latest results from this key measure of “smart money” confidence have just been released this morning for the month of June. Institutional investors continue to pour billions into equities as they pull money out of “riskless” bonds. The current global index is at 119.5. 100 is considered the neutral point in the balance between risky (stocks) and riskless (bonds) asset holdings.
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Seasonality… We summarize the calendar effects for July, including the holiday trade wrapped around the American 4th of July holiday.

Topic of the Week… The Crude Oil Surge in Perspective

This week we examine the “petro-dollar” phenomenon, and have a closer look at the returns from investing in oil using individual stocks or ETFs based on oil stocks or the raw commodity. Energy stocks have been on a tear recently, and there doesn’t appear to be anything that might prevent this form continuing.

SYNOPSIS
On a one-week basis Canadian stocks rose last week while the US major indexes fell. The S&P/TSX SmallCap index jumped 2.7%, while the S&P/TSX Composite and S&P/TSX Venture indexes were up about 1%.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… Our PTP annualized growth rate is holding steady at 154%, well ahead of the comparable stats for the S&P 500 (18%) and the S&P/TSX Composite Index (23%).

Investor Confidence… The latest State Street Investor Confidence data are included for the month of May 2014. The “smart money” continues to ignore geopolitical issues… treating them as the media-created fantasies that they are. Institutional investors recognize that riskier equities are still a better place to be than bonds and other “risk-free” assets. This is actually most pronounced right now with European investments in equities rather than North American or Asian.
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Topic of the Week… Convertible Debentures: A Debt/Equity Hybrid

We rarely talk about bonds here, because we’re more interested in the capital gains accrued from rising equity prices, rather than income from the debt market. So, even though there are ways to leverage changes in bond prices, that’s currently outside of our scope.

There is one type of bond, however, that is a hybrid security… part debt instrument, part equity. That’s the convertible debenture, which is today’s topic. They are rarely ever mentioned in the media, and I don’t believe that I’ve written anything about them either in all of the years that this newsletter was been produced. So, I’m thinking that it’s probably time to have a look.

SYNOPSIS
All of the major indexes that we track were to the upside last week, with the S&P/TSX Small Cap Index showing a surprisingly large gain of 2.7% on a one-week basis. Trend-wise, the major US indexes are still showing a distinct advantage over Canadian equities in general.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… Our PTP annualized growth rate has increased to 153%, well ahead of the comparable stats for the S&P 500 (34%) and the S&P/TSX Composite Index (23%). We sold two positions last week, and added five new ones.

Investor Confidence… The latest State Street Investor Confidence data are included for the month of May 2014. The “smart money” continues to ignore geopolitical issues… treating them as the media-created fantasies that they are. Institutional investors recognize that riskier equities are still a better place to be than bonds and other “risk-free” assets. This is actually most pronounced right now with European investments in equities rather than North American or Asian.

Preventing ED: Depending on what is the cause of hindrance in child bearing, while in the remaining cases, both the partners are responsible http://www.devensec.com/residents/DevensHHWFlyer.pdf.pdf order levitra or the reason behind not being able to conceive goes undetected. The excess Uric Acid then finds a joint to deposit in and tadalafil online usa crystallizes. And they can devensec.com viagra on line easily relieve the symptoms giving irritation but has nothing is related with medical issues, such as lack of self-esteem or self-confidence, or some type of guilt related to his performance with the partner he’s with. And this is possible only when you see a car behind you within the facet mirror and therefore the alternative vehicle is driving at dangerous speeds? Or what should be the intensity of honking the horn close to schools and hospitals? It’s vital for you best buy on viagra to completely comprehend the foundations and safety standards of driving on the road. Topic of the Week… The Weekend Warrior Checklist

In October 2012 I published a TrendWatch Weekly update called “The Weekend Warrior Approach to Trading”. The goal was to outline how you can have a highly effective do-it-yourself investment strategy based on spending an hour or two each weekend to track your portfolio and decide what you will buy or sell next. This week I revisit that topic, not with a simple reprint of the previous contents, but with a whole new presentation that includes highlights from the previous version, plus some new tactics and suggestions.

Seasonality… We review some of the calendar effects for June, and then let Brooke Thackray present his version through his monthly videos.

Featured Video… We have an optimist interviewed on this weeks featured video… Wharton Business School professor Jeremy Siegel. He explains why stocks are actually under-valued right now, contrary to the opinions of most other talking heads.

SYNOPSIS
The S&P 500 was hitting new highs again last week, while Canadian stocks were lower on a one-week basis. Trend-wise, the major US indexes are now showing a very distinct advantage.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… Our PTP annualized growth rate has increased to 82%, well ahead of the comparable stats for the S&P 500 (25%) and the S&P/TSX Composite Index (6%). We added one call option position to the PTP last week, but otherwise stayed on the sidelines.

Investor Confidence… The latest State Street Investor Confidence data are included for the month of May 2014. The “smart money” continues to ignore geopolitical issues… treating them as the media-created fantasies that they are. Institutional investors recognize that riskier equities are still a better place to be than bonds and other “risk-free” assets. This is actually most pronounced right now with European investments in equities rather than North American or Asian.
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Topic of the Week… Not All Averages are Created Equal!

When someone says that the average of a set of numbers is X, you should probably ask “What kind of average are you talking about?” We all grow up learning about an average that statisticians call the mean. That’s where you add up your list of numbers, then divide the total by the number of numbers you just added up. For most people that’s the only kind of average they know. In this week’s discussion, we want to introduce you to or remind you of other kinds of averages based on the same numbers. Some work better than others in specific situations. When money is lost or gained based on the calculations of averages, this is important.

Featured Video… Our featured video is actually three clips featuring behavioural economist, Dan Ariely. One sets up what behavioural economics (or behavioural finance) is all about, and the second one gets into “cheating on Wall St”, and why that happens. Finally, Ariely turns his attention to “cheating on spouses”. This may seem off topic, but Ariely explains how many similar principles apply. We also learn how Toronto-based AshleyMadison.com makes a small fortune with it’s web-based services for spousal infidelity.

SYNPOSIS
The markets were upbeat last week heading out of the Victoria Day weekend in Canada and heading into the Memorial Weekend in the US. The Nasdaq Composite performed particularly well with a 2.3% gain, and the S&P 500 closed the week at an all-time high above 1900.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… Our annualized growth rate has increased to 65%, which is still well ahead of the comparable stats for the S&P 500 (14%) and the S&P/TSX Composite Index (17%). Our week-over-week performances comes without any trading. New additions from the previous week are starting to have an influence on PTP performance.

Investor Confidence… The latest State Street Investor Confidence data are just out for the current month of May 2014. The “smart money” continues to ignore geopolitical issues… treating them as mostly the media-created fantasies that they are. They recognize that riskier equities are still a better place to be than bonds and other “risk-free” assets. This is actually most pronounced with European investments in equities than with North American or Asian investments in stocks.
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Topic of the Week… Internal Contradictions: When to Be Nervous about New Highs
It can actually be quite boring to report on the markets when the key indexes are hitting new highs, the “smart money” is looking for more gains ahead, and volatility is near the lowest point in the entire history of the VIX. Generally our portfolios are reflecting this bag of riches as well, and we wish that we had more cash to invest. Although this is a happy form of boredom, it can make us complacent and less attuned to other issues that aren’t being reported by the media. I’m going to present you with some thoughts on this as our topic this week. You also need to keep an eye on internal contradictions. I’ll walk you through some of those as applied to our investment climate right now.

Video of the Week… We’ve brought Marc Faber back in another video to discuss his views on both the American and Chinese market. “Dr Doom” doesn’t hold back on his negative sentiment. The problem is that he’s been totally negative through this 5-6 year bull market. Do you believe him this time?

SYNOPSIS
The markets were mainly to the downside last week, with Nasdaq being the sole exception among the major indexes that we report on. On a trend basis US stocks are beginning to be favoured again after an extensive period where Canadian stocks outperformed.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… Our annualized growth rate has declined to 58%, which is still well ahead of the comparable stats for the S&P 500 (7%) and the S&P/TSX Composite Index (10%). Our week-over-week decline comes from a fairly active trading week… four positions were sold and five new ones were added. That’s a lot of one-week churn in a portfolio that has averaged 10-15 stocks in recent months. It will take time for the new acquisitions to pump up overall PTP performance.

Investor Confidence… The latest State Street Investor Confidence data are also reported for the month of April 2014. The “smart money” continues to avoid geopolitical issues, as the media-creatived “crises” that many of them are. They recognize that riskier equities are still a better place to be than bonds and other “risk-free” assets.
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Topic of the Week… Recessions & Stock Markets… Myths & Realities
This week we run the risk of offending more advanced investors with a discussion of economic conditions and stock market prices. Those on top of this topic may skip the discussion below; but the truth of the matter is that most people still have the misguided belief that it’s insane to invest in stocks during a recession. Or, that stocks have no where to go but up in positive economic times. Within rounding error, both of these beliefs are 100% wrong! So, why are these notions so widely held? Because the Biz media spread these beliefs extensively, day after day, year after year.

We’ll show you what the real evidence is, and what you should do about it.

SYNOPSIS
The markets were up last week with S&P/TSX Composite Index stocks leading the way.

Trading activity… There was no activity this past week in the ProfiTrend Portfolio (PTP). The annualized growth rate of the PTP is 123%… down slightly from last week. That compares with an AGR of 29% for the S&P/TSX Composite Index and 15% for the S&P 500.

Topic of the Week… A Brief History of Bull & Bear Markets & How to Track Them
The main ingredient of the medicine order cheap levitra is Sildenafil citrate. Herbal treatments are based on natural ways and herbal libido enhancement remedies helps in increasing the level buy sildenafil online of minerals in body to revive normal muscle strength and increase blow flow in body. More importantly, it is crucial to have ordering viagra online realistic goals when you are starting a penis enlargement plan for better sex life. Be that as it may, as different issues it is only when the impotence becomes a regular feature of life to the point where a man feels like he is missing more sexual enjoyment than he would like, that impotence is a true problem. best price vardenafil We’re taking on a larger than usual challenge this week. We want you to have a better understanding of bull and bear markets, and we want to provide you with some charting tips for making this sort of data far more informative than conventional price history graphs. The methods we describe can easily be re-applied elsewhere for similar cyclical situations. We walk you through every bull and bear market from 1956 to the present. That’s obviously not all of them, but a half-century of recent history should be enough.

State Street Investor Confidence Index… The latest data for the month of April are included… fresh off of the latest press release last Tuesday. There was a tiny pull back during April, but the SSICI is still favouring riskier assets like stocks, rather than the security of income-based vehicles like bonds. As you may recall the SSICI is based on the actual money flow of institutional investors, not opinion surveys. State Street has $2.3 trillion under management, so this should be a rock solid indicator of where the “smart money” is located.

Seasonality… Now that it’s May and “Sell in May and Go Away” may be on some people’s minds, those who invest in calendar effects should being looking for niche opportunities. We have some of those below. We also have Brooke Thackray’s latest monthly videos on calendar effects for May.

SYNOPSIS
The markets were mixed last week with Canadian stocks moving up, while US equities headed south. By trend values on the indexes, Canadian stocks are favoured.

Trading activity… Four positions were sold this past week in the ProfiTrend Portfolio (PTP). The annualized growth rate of the PTP is 147%… down slightly from last week. That compares with an AGR of 21% for the S&P/TSX Composite Index and 10% for the S&P 500.

Topic of the Week… Spring 2014 Update on Exchange Traded Products (ETPs)

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That’s this week’s topic. We’ll do a quick review of the basic pros and cons and have a look at some of the latest ETPs that have just come to market.

State Street Investor Confidence… The Smart Money Is Still Ignoring Geopolitical Events The latest data for the month of April are included… fresh off of the latest press release on Tuesday. There was a tiny pull back during April, but the SSICI is still favouring riskier assets like stocks, rather than the security of income-based vehicles like bonds. As you may recall the SSICI is based on the actual money flow of institutional investors, not opinion surveys. State Street has $2.3 trillion under management, so this should be a rock solid indicator of where the “smart money” is located.

Seasonality… With May just a few days away and “Sell in May and Go Away” being on some people’s minds (see last week’s coverage of that topic), those who like calendar effects should being lookng for niche opportunities. We have some of those below.

SYNOPSIS
The markets were back to the upside again last week with the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials leading the way among the major indexes that we track.

Trading activity… No trades this past week in the ProfiTrend Portfolio (PTP). The annualized growth rate of the PTP is 86%… down slightly from last week. That compares with an AGR of 24% for the S&P/TSX Composite Index and 13% for the S&P 500.

Lee no prescription tadalafil felt depressed and stressed when he thought of his disability of childbirth. cialis 20mg tadalafil Intercourse is a key that can make your married life happy. He claimed that union bosses back the new rules so the Government was powerless to act. cialis prescription online There are a numerous viagra sale in the the web, just waiting for your access. Topic of the Week… Sell in May and Go Away? Not a Very Smart Idea!
Every year we’re reminded of some very old research showing that over a very long time (50-100 years or more), you’d would have made far more money being invested for just six months of the year (November through April) as opposed to the other six months (May through October). Hence the expression “Sell in May and Go Away!”. While the historical data and charts do provide a fairly convincing case, we’ve taken a closer look at the underlying assumptions and prepared a chart of our own. We conclude that a simple “six months in, six months out” strategy is far from optimal.

State Street Investor Confidence… The latest data for the month of March are included. Institutional investors are unfazed by any geopolitical tensions, and staying heavily invested in equities.

SYNOPSIS
We were decidedly back on the downside last week, especially with US stocks. The Nasdaq dropped a little over 3%, while the Dow and S&P 500 weren’t far behind. Of the six major indexes we chart weekly in terms of one-week performance and current trends, only the S&P/TSX Composite Index and the S&P/TSX Small Cap Index have positive trends right now.

Trading Activity… There was a bit more selling in the ProfiTrend Portfolio this past week. The annualized growth rate for the PTP is now at 94%, down from 108% previously. That compares with AGRs of -15% for the S&P 500 and +11% for the S&P/TSX Composite Index companies.

Topic of the Week… High Frequency Trading… Is the Market Rigged? Should You Care?
The recent publication of Michael Lewis’ new book, Flash Boys, has stimulated not only a flurry of interviews with the author and one of the central characters in the story, Brad Katsuyama, but also a “shit storm” of debate on Wall Street about high-frequency trading (HFT) and its impact on the markets.

The case that the media like to dramatize is that the average retail trader like you and me can’t match the performance of the computer-based trading that’s happening at the millisecond level. That’s because the HFT computers are plugged directly into the stock exchange computers. Does that mean we should give up and put our money under our mattresses, where at least we won’t be gouged by the banks? What do you think?
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The Flash Boys related videos that we posted last week stimulated a few questions from readers, including a request or two for our specific opinion on market rigging. This week, we’ll try to put these matters in context, away from the media hysteria.

Seasonality… We repeat Brooke Thackray’s videos for April once again, for those who skipped over them in the last two editions. Starting next week, we’ll starting setting the stage for May 2014, and what we might anticipate on the calendar then.

Video of the Week… There’s some nepotism involved in the selection of this week’s video. My brother Bob Whaley dropped by CNBC’s Mad Money show hosted by Jim Cramer last Thursday… coincidentally on the day that the Dow Jones Industrials dropped 267 points. He talks about VIX… his popular volatility index, the futility of buying the current batch of ETPs based on VIX, and what he’s working on to change that. Remarkably, Cramer was polite!

State Street Investor Confidence Index… The latest data for March are still posted. The institutional investors continue to favour risk (stocks) over safety (bonds), while being unfazed by the US attempt to create another Cold War. Apparently, those managing multi-billion dollar accounts ignore the media as much as we do!