SYNOPSIS

As of the close on Friday, the S&P/TSX Composite Index was 20% above the bear market low in January. That signals a brand new bull market, if you believe these arbitrary thresholds to be meaningful. Does that mean that we’re on our way to the previous bull market high of 16,653 or even higher, from our current level of 14,227? Perhaps, but it’s certainly not going to happen quickly, given the anemic trend value of this heavily followed Canadian index.

Still, perhaps it’ll reverse the major outflows of investor money from equities over the past few months. It was interesting to watch the dominos fall on Friday, starting with a horrible US jobs report. That knocked over the likelihood of a rate hike in the US in June, which toppled the US dollar. That in turn drove up the price of gold (and gold stocks), and most other currencies. The Canadian dollar rose a full cent. If only it were that simple to explain things on a normal trading day.

Last Week in the Indexes… Last week we reported that our long-standing winners, the S&P/TSX Small Cap Index and the S&P/TSX Venture Index dropped sharply. Well, both of them came back with a vengeance last week, to wipe out the previous week’s losses and then some. Trend-wise, they’re back on top on a trend basis, followed by the Russell 2000 and the S&P/TSX Composite Index. The Nasdaq, S&P 500 and DJIA are all underperforming the rest on a trend basis.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) surged ahead to 217%, compared to 163% in the last report… enough to require a re-scaling of our chart below. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR also rose 5% from the previous week, while the S&P 500 APAR was up just 2% a week earlier.
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PTA Perspective… Brand New Canadian Bull Market!
This week we talk some more about the new bull market in Canadian stocks, and the overall implications of the labels and thresholds of bull and bear markets. Do they really matter? We’ll tell you in this week’s issue.

State Street Investor Confidence Index for May 2016… It’s that time of the month again. The latest State Street Investor Confidence Index has just been reported (for May). This is not an opinion poll from the man in the street. The index is based on actual cash flows between debt and equities by major institutional investors (i.e. “the smart money”). The Global ICI decreased to 106.6, down just 2.0 points from April’s revised reading of 108.6. The decline in sentiment was driven by a decrease in the North American ICI from 114 to 109. By contrast, the Asian ICI increased by 4.1 points to 112.1 while the European ICI rose from 95.4 to 96.8.

Seasonality… since we’ve already published the key stats for June over the past few weeks, we focus this time on the Memorial Day holiday trade and others like it. We report the results of the Canadian and US versions of the trade for this year, and go on to discuss why neither very short term or very long term calendar effects are useful. We still realize the value of putting everyday trading in a seasonality perspective, but caution about putting too much weight on regularly occurring patterns.

SYNOPSIS

Last Week… Our long-standing favourites, the S&P/TSX Small Cap Index and the S&P/TSX Venture Index dropped sharply last week, while all of the other indexes had nice gains of up to 3.4%.

PTP… Our PTP APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) pulled back to 163%, compared to 197% in the last report… as some of our precious metal stocks retreated. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR rose a bit to 35% from the previous week’s 33%, and the S&P 500 APAR moved nicely up to 29% from 5% the previous week.

PTA Perspective… Understand Your Indexes: Happy 120th Birthday, Dow Jones Industrial Average!
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Yes, May 26 was the 120th birthday of the existence of the Dow Industrial Average index. Starting with 12 components in 1896, the list never grew any high than the current 30. At the DJIA’s inception, Industrials were the highly speculative sector, as Information Technology stocks are today. If you wanted to risk your money on growth stocks, you bought US Leather, Tennessee Coal & Iron, or Distilling & Cattle Feeding… to name just a few of the original dozen. Let us walk you through some more history of the Dow and remind you how indexes should always be an important reference point with any investment strategy.

ETF Trading Simulation… Although we were a little slow to notice, Horizons Exchanged Traded Funds has its 6th annual ETF trading competition well under way, but it’s not too late to sign up and see how well you can do over the remaining four weeks. At least you’ll start out well ahead of those who have been losing money since trading started May 9.

It’s free to enter, but there are very real $500 cash prizes weekly and a grand prize of $7500 for the winner and $2500 for the runner-up. Click here for the rules & sign-up info. It’s a trading simulation that works like a real trading account. You start with $100,000 (in fictitious dollars of course), and see how fast you can raise your portfolios value before the end. You can trade about 500 different Canadian ETFs (not just the Horizons family of funds). We have a few more details in the full version of TrendWatch Weekly this week.

SYNOPSIS

Last Week… The three Canadian indexes we track for our weekly summary all rose last week. The US results were more mixed. The DJI and Nasdaq now have trend values of zero, and the S&P and Russell 2000 are close to that… at 0.2% and 0.1% respectively.

PTP… Our PTP APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) is up to 197%, compared to 176% last week. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR fell to 33% from the previous week’s 41%, and the S&P 500 APAR pulled back one percentage point to 5%.

Clearly, money can still be made in an environment where the major indexes are moving sideways to down.
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PTA Perspective… Staying Sane and Sensible in Uncertain Times
There’s an old saying that “investors climb a wall of worry”. All that worry makes sense, of course, when the media are spreading gloom-and-doom 80% of the time. Why? Gloom-and-doom keeps viewers and readers tuned-in, and the number of eyeballs tuned in determines how much they can charge for advertising dollars. It’s just another supply and demand equation… this one based on emotion. In this case, however, there isn’t a whole lot to be enthusiastic about, if you look at overall global markets.

It’s a pity though that a lot of these global reports leave out the Canadian major indexes. In the sea of red (i.e. pink) above, Canada would stand out with a +8% year-to-date figure, and investors worldwide would be blown away, if they saw the S&P/TSX Venture Index’s +30% year-to-date in that chart above. This week we bring you much more on putting everything in perspective, so as to make rational investment decisions. After all “perspective” is all about the “relative” in relative trend analysis™ (RTA) .

SYNOPSIS

Big Picture… The rally from mid-February has run quite a distance, while the media are just finally acknowledging that it happened. We’re pleased to have alerted you early enough to get heavily invested along the way, as we were. We may be near a temporary pause in this long-running bull market, but as usual we don’t pretend to know what’s going to happen next. With a downturn now or in the near future, we’ll simply make an orderly exit, with most of our profits over the past three months intact. That’s the beauty of relative trend analysis™ (RTA) .

Last Week… The one-week results for the seven major indexes that we track in the newsletter have returned to what we’ve seen for quite a while now… Advantage Canada! The three Canadian indexes all rose, the four US indexes all declined. Naturally that left the index trends favouring Canada too. Mind you Nasdaq is the only US index with a negative stock trend so far.

PTP… Our PTP APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) is up to 176%, compared to 158% last week. Our S&P/TSX Composite Index benchmark gained also, while the S&P 500 APAR pulled back.
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PTA Perspective… Adding Ratios to your Investment Toolbox
Yes, we encounter ratios all the time in financial publications and investor data sources… Price/Earnings, Price Sales, Price/Book Value, Sales/Employee, etc. But have you ever thought about creating your own, or looking into some of the more exotic ratios that some professional investors have found very useful? If not, maybe it’s time you did. This week we show you how it’s done, and also talk about some of the spin-off benefits of a ratio-oriented approach.

Seasonality… Every year we try to re-assure investors that the “Sell in May and Go Away” phenomenon is overdone. Stocks may very well perform better in November through April than May through October, but there are seasonal trends to take advantage of during the summer, and exceptions to the usual calendar effect pattern that we can’t even anticipate yet. Relative trend analysis™ (RTA) will find them. We’ve already laid down the outlook for May overall and by sectors, so this week we extend the analysis to multi-month favourable patterns that we might expect through these “unfavourable six months”.

SYNOPSIS

Big Picture… It was finally time for the markets to take a breather last week to digest some of the large run-up we’ve experienced since mid-February. Probabilistically, however, the argument remains strong for being heavily invested in equities. It takes more than one off-week to end a rally with the momentum that this one has.

Last Week… All of the standard indexes that we report in TrendWatch Weekly were lower last week… to varying degrees. It wasn’t a simple US vs Canada thing like you read about here last week. One week losses varied from -0.2% for the DJI to -2.3% for the Russell 2000. Trends for Canadian stocks are still outperforming their American counterparts, although so far only the trend of the Nasdaq Composite Index has turned negative.

PTP… Our PTP APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) is at 158%, compared to 209% last week. Our comparison benchmarks also retreated last week.
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PTA Perspective… Learn How to Sell, Before Learning How to Buy!
This may be the first time we’ve bluntly came out and said it, but if you’re determined to earn lots of money by investing in equities, learn how to sell before you go to work on picking stocks that will outperform the markets. The secret to success is all about knowing when to sell your losers. The winners will take care of themselves.

Seasonality… We didn’t really get into the “Sell in May and go away” story last week (an oversight), so we’ll bring you up to speed in this edition of TrendWatch Weekly. In short there is abundant evidence that over many decades, the markets perform better during November through April than May through October. Some investors go as far as only holding equities in the most profitable six months, and taking a six month vacation in the summer. If you take a deeper look, however, the price action between May 1 and the end of October in any given year is anything from consistently flat to down across the six months. There are numerous opportunities to rake in some gains. Check out the details in this week’s edition. We have summary stats of typical market performance for May as well.

SYNOPSIS

Big Picture… The North American equities markets continue to rally. Canadian small-caps remain the year-to-date winner so far, by a wide margin.

Last Week… All the major US indexes fell over the past trading week. Canadian stock indexes were higher across the board.

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PTA Perspective… What’s New in the Buffeteria?

How do you feed lunch to 40,000 people? That was my question as I watched much of the annual Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) annual general meeting and carnival on Saturday… webcast live from Omaha on this past Saturday, 10am ‘till about 5:30pm (ET). I still don’t have the answer, but I will share some highlights from that session, and trash a few more myths about Buffet and the unsupportable claims that he may be the world’s greatest investor. (By the way, if you want to sit down and watch the seven hours of coverage, here is a replay that Yahoo will probably leave up for a while.)
Investor Confidence… We published the latest State Street Investor Confidence Index for April last week. That section of our report will remain the same now until the end of May, since this is a monthly report. There was a pull-back in April from the large jump in March, but the current ICI is still above January and February levels. The smart money hasn’t abandoned stocks just yet.

SYNOPSIS

Big Picture… The North American equities markets continue to rally. All major indexes are up year-to-date, while various indexes from China, Japan, and Europe are still down. Nasdaq is also marginally down -2% year-to-date; but the big winner is still the S&P/TSX Venture Index, up 25% since the beginning of the year.

Last Week… Only Nasdaq experienced a loss over the past trading week, among the major North American indexes. All trend values are still positive.

PTP… Our PTP APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) is up to 158%, compared to 139% last week. Our benchmark APARs are also higher since last time. We’ve included our historical performance chart once again for reference.
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PTA Perspective… Convertible Debentures: Time to Put the Top Down and Enjoy the Ride?
Corporate bonds are typically outside of our scope, but there is a hybrid security called a convertible bond (or convertible debenture), which has characteristics that bridge the gap between debt and equity. There is an income stream as with conventional bonds, but also a capital gain element, because the bonds can be exchanged for common shares in the same company that issued the convertible. A number of these are performing quite well right now from a trend/consistency perspective. For that reason, we’re going to run you through the key features and performance characteristics. Perhaps there’s a place for some of these in your investment portfolio.

Investor Confidence… It’s that time of the month again. The latest State Street Investor Confidence Index has just been reported (for April). This is not an opinion poll from the man in the street. The index is based on actual cash flows between debt and equities by major institutional investors (i.e. “the smart money”). The Global ICI decreased to 109.1, down 5.7 points from March’s revised reading of 114.8. The decline in sentiment was driven by a decrease in the North American ICI from 123.7 to 115. The Asian ICI decreased by 4.2 points to 107.8 while the European ICI fell the least, from 95.8 to 95.3. The Global ICI’s drop only partially offsets the 8 point jump in March. The current ICI is still above January and February levels.

SYNOPSIS

Big Picture… The equities markets continue to rally. For how long? Who knows, but relative trend analysis™ (RTA) is about making money in the present, not worrying about what the future might bring! We’ll exit gracefully, when the time is right… with profits, not just speculation about why It shouldn’t have happened.

Last Week… The small cap advantage is still in place, particularly in Canada, although the Russell 2000 isn’t far behind. All of the six indexes in our weekly summary were up last week and all have positive trend values. The S&P/TSX Venture Index was up a whopping 5%!

PTP… The damage-control we applied to our ProfiTrend Portfolio has shown continuing success. Our PTP APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) is up to 139%, compared to 70% last week. We’re now above our 4-year weekly average of about 100%. Both of our reference benchmark APARs are also up 10% or more over the previous week.

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With the small cap advantage that we’ve been talking about for more than a few weeks now, it seems like a good time to take a look at the TSX Venture Exchange. Trading in penny stocks issued by mining and energy companies can be a nail-biting experience. We generally recommend that moderate to low risk investors stay away. But then, should you be staying away from a market that is rising at a pace 2-3 times faster per week than the S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index? This week we discuss the pros and cons of taking a “wild west” approach to taming some profits and hog-tying potential losses.

New Weekly Feature… As a spin-off of this week’s discussion of the Venture Exchange, we’ve added yet another database to our Data & Charts Workbooks. The only ETFs that once tracked Venture Exchange indexes have disappeared, but the two primary indexes haven’t. The S&P/TSX Venture Select Index has just 34 constituents. These are essentially the best of the best of Venture listings. You may not be able to invest in an ETF; but on a weekly basis, you’ll now know which of the S&P/TSX Venture Select constituents are leading or lagging the index. That could come in handy right now, when small caps are the place to be.

Referral Plan… Finally, this week we’re introducing a referral plan. Word-of-mouth is generally the best form of promotion in many types of business. If your trusted friends find value in a service, then you’re more likely to embrace it too. To reward any of you who send new members our way, we’ve introduced a credit system. You’ll receive a $15 credit for each person who signs up. 10 sign-ups and your annual fee for the next year is covered; or you could apply your credits to any of our Premium Service Database Subscriptions. We’ve set up a page at the web site with more details, but of course you’ll also have to be a paid-member already to gain access.

SYNOPSIS

Big Picture… Here’s the latest edition of our “big picture in a small chart”. This little gem aggregates the trend calculations of 10,000+ stocks and about 2000 ETPs over three timeframes. What should you look for in the ideal bull market chart? Exactly what you see there!

We have about 80% of all stocks and ETPs with a positive trend values based on a 10 week moving average. The upward slope over different timeframes implies that gains are accelerating. Unfortunately, there are lingering doubts about how long this rally can be sustained; but for now it’s “buy time”.

Last Week… After a pull-back the previous week across all the major indexes that we track, the same indexes all advanced last week. Nasdaq had the biggest gains after a full quarter of disappointing performance. Still, on a trend basis, it’s still the Canadian small caps that are outperforming the rest.

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It’s that time again. End of quarter, and time to look both back and ahead. We review how the major indexes have performed, as well as the 10 sectors that we track. And, to round things out, we look at the global perspective and outlook. Lots of charts. Lots of numbers to feast on.

Seasonality and Investor Confidence… After building a comprehensive picture of the calendar effects to expect this month over the past few weeks, and presenting you with the latest (March) results on investor confidence, it’s time to just leave those sections alone for now. You can find the results in the usual location near the bottom, if you haven’t read those sections already.

SYNOPSIS

Last Week… All multi-week winning streaks come to an end… just as last week’s losses offset some of the previous five weeks of gains. The one-week losses weren’t major — most less than 1% — but losses all the same. The trend values for all of the major indexes remain positive. The Canadian small cap indexes (S&P/TSX Small Cap Index and S&P/TSX Venture Index) continue to lead the way to produce the most rapid price appreciation.

PTA Perspective & Research… Building Predictive Models: Starting with 1’s and 0’s

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Seasonality… With March behind us, we’re into coverage of calendar effects for April. We’ve mentioned before that April is normally not a great month for Canadian stocks, but the major US indexes normally perform well. In fact it’s the #1 month of the year for the Dow Jones Industrial Index which rises almost 70% of the time based on a long trail of historical data. This week we share some stats on the best performing sectors to keep an eye on.

Investor Confidence… The March results are now in for the State Street Investor Confidence Index (SSICI). The Global ICI increased to 114.6, up 8.0 points from February’s revised reading of 106.6. Investors across all regions expressed a renewed appetite for risk, with the North American ICI increasing from 109.4 to 123.6, the European ICI rising from 90.2 to 95.3, and the Asian ICI from 111.5 to 112.2. These are quite substantial gains on a month-over-month basis. The “smart money” (institutional investors) have had the confidence to sink many more billions of dollars into stocks over the course of March. And remember, this is not an opinion poll on where money managers might put their money in the future (which is the case with almost all other confidence indexes). The SSICI measures real money flows in real time into and out of stocks.

Premium Service Update… Premium Service subscribers will be happy to hear that we’ve added another 550 stocks to the Canadian database and 1321 stocks to the US database. That brings our totals to 2066 and 7888 respectively. For those who may have forgotten, our Weekly Premium Services are for power users who want to go beyond the more conservative S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index constituent stocks that you find at our web site now for free. Check here for details and pricing. If you’re not currently a PTA 2.0 member, click here instead.