SYNOPSIS

And so it goes! Tax breaks for the US filthy rich do not lead to booming stock markets. It just means that the US filthy rich pay less taxes. The blame game works both ways.

Day by Day… Here’s how last week played out on a daily basis. A modest gain on the Canadian side. A modest loss in the US.

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PTP… The S&P 500 APAR (capital gains speedometer) dropped to almost zero last week, and the TSX counterpart was up a few points. The PTP score advanced a few points, but once again you have to consider the small pool of stocks in the portfolio right now. Ups and downs could be quite severe, until some stability returns to the markets, and we can start building up the portfolio again. We did add two more holdings towards the end of last week, but those have minimal impact on our speedometer so far.

PTA Perspective… Investing with Perspective
This week we review the importance of perspective in all of your investment decisions. That’s the “relative” in relative trend analysis™ (RTA) . You want to assess your holdings in the perspective of global trends, sector trends, and simple stock-to-stock comparisons on trend and consistency. We put special emphasis on temporal perspective this time, and why you should focus more on the present more than the past.

NEW SUBSCRIBERS: Please visit the Visitor Guide at our web site to gain a better understanding of what relative trend analysis™ is all about. It’ll help you understand the contents of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

This is an old cartoon, and I think that’s supposed to be former PM Stephen Harper behind the wheel of that car. Harper spent a lot of time destroying the Canadian economy, but we can’t actually blame him for declining commodity prices. That’s an international issue that comes down to nothing more than supply and demand. After the US single-handedly caused the Great Recession of 2007-2009, the comeback has been a struggle. Stock markets moved higher yet again (and sooner than anticipated), but commodity prices didn’t. And, Canada is still a natural resource economy.

Day by Day… Here’s how last week played out on a daily basis. 1.2% over the week for TSX stocks. The S&P 500 finished unchanged.

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PTA Perspective… Tale of Two Markets: US vs Canada
There’s a common misperception that the Canadian stock market behaves just like the US equities market, but on a smaller scale. This week we remind you of some of the fundamental differences, and what those differences might mean in terms of the mix of US and Canadian stocks, that you might consider for your portfolio.

Investor Confidence… The April 2018 results for the State Street Investor Confidence Index arrived last week. This is not an opinion poll. The SSICI is a measure of actual money flows between equities (higher numbers) and safer income securities orchestrated by institutional investors (the “smart” money). The Global Investor Confidence Index increased to 114.5, up 3.0 points from March’s revised reading of 111.5. The “smart money” has been buying more stocks, not less, each month since the December low.

As usual we provide more detail on the regional ICI’s in the complete Investor Confidence section of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

The long ties and tiny hands of US politics! Investors are still trying to cope with the most ignorant president in the history of the 2nd biggest world economy running a country and international relations on Twitter. World leaders have no trouble dismissing him as an idiot, but individual and even institutional investors have to be concerned about him denouncing one thing one day, and then retracting it the next. Perhaps his own investment people are playing that routine with inside information. For us in the PTA community, we shouldn’t be concerned, except to the extent that he’s creating negative vibes that keep many investors out of stocks and holding cash, in otherwise favourable world economic conditions.

Day by Day… Here’s how last week played out on a daily basis. 1.4%% over the week on TSX stocks isn’t bad. The S&P 500 finished just 0.5% up after more robust gains earlier in the week.
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PTP… The S&P 500 APAR (capital gains speedometer) finally turned slightly positive, but the S&P/TSX Composite Index counterpart rose to +18%. The PTP score retreated but you have to consider the small pool of stocks in the portfolio. Ups and downs will be quite severe, until some stability returns to the markets and we can start investing seriously again.

PTA Perspective… Seasonality Update – Spring 2018
Seasonality effects (also called calendar effects) refer to patterns of rising prices in a major stock index, a sector of stocks or even individual stocks that repeat consistently at certain times of the year. We have always questioned basing an entire investment strategy on such findings, but given the probabilistic nature of the underlying data, they shouldn’t be ignored either. Once again we try to put seasonality in perspective… talking about the benefits, and the absurdity of taking the approach to its ultimate extreme.

SYNOPSIS

Perhaps we’re dwelling too much on the trade war issue, but if that matter escalates, stocks will plunge across the board… especially US equities. Posturing about “strategic air strikes” on Syria is almost irrelevant, since Trump and Obama and probably Bush before him have been bombing Syrian civilians continuously for many years with pilotless drones. It’s not news that affects markets anymore. Neither is Trump’s “mission accomplished” tweet. But, as per the cartoon, Trump is bringing the trade war into the US with his latest attacks on Amazon and other major American corporations. It’s ironic that he thinks that he can handicap US corporations dependent on international trade and “make them great again” at the same time.

Day by Day… Here’s how last week played out on a daily basis. 2% over the week on US stocks isn’t bad. The S&P/TSX Composite Index finished slightly higher.

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PTP… The S&P 500 APAR remained negative after last week’s trading, but the S&P/TSX Composite Index counterpart flipped positive from -4% a week earlier.. The PTP score had another boost, in spite of the fact that we were down to only two holdings in the PTP. We added two more Friday afternoon, but there wasn’t time for them to have much of an impact on our 207%… double last week’s reading.

PTA Perspective… ETF Update – Spring 2018
While we favour individual stocks over ETFs, we know that we have members/subscribers who want to know how to use them for maximum advantage. So, like this week, we have occasional updates to talk about the latest ETF news, opinions and strategies. We even propose a hybrid strategy of trading both individual stocks and ETFs.

SYNOPSIS

Remember Trump’s entire first year as president, when he did absolutely nothing? The stock markets rose almost continuously, because investors had nothing to worry about! Well, we can now see what happens when he does so-called “presidential” stuff! But don’t worry… we’ll guide you into foreign investment opportunities, while the US markets unravel.

Day by Day… Here’s how last week played out on a daily basis. There was some hope that at least US stocks would finish the week higher. Then Friday happened.

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PTP… The S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index APARs remained negative after last week’s trading. The PTP score had a nice improvement, in spite of the fact that we’re down to only two holdings in the PTP.

PTA Perspective… 2018 Q1 Review – Global Perspective
We extend our coverage of Q1 2018 to look at the global equities markets. Is it time to pull the plug on North American stocks and look elsewhere? We’ll let you know in this week’s full edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

Isn’t that always the way it goes, every day? Apparently the media can’t grasp how stupid they sound with these headlines.

PTP… The S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index APARs remained negative after the past for-day trading week. The PTP score fell further as we sold on sell-signals and resisted all urges to buy replacements. We’re almost 90% in cash at this point.

Day by Day… Here’s how last week played out on a daily basis. The percentage changes in the actual indexes are shown relative to the previous Friday close. US stocks fared a little better than Canadian stocks last week with 2% gains.

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PTA Perspective… 2018 – Q1 Review – North America
It’s quarterly review time again and Q1 2018 looks pretty ugly. After a strong surge in January, the “correction”, which no one predicted, happened during a backdrop of uniformly strong economic news worldwide. We unravel all of the details for you in this week’s full edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

Investor Confidence… The March 2018 results for the State Street Investor Confidence Index have just been posted. This is not an opinion poll. The SSICI is a measure of actual money flows between equities (higher numbers) and safer income securities orchestrated by institutional investors (the “smart” money). The Global Investor Confidence Index increased to 111.9, up 4.8 points from February’s revised reading of 107.1.

As usual we provide more detail on the regional ICI’s in the Investor Confidence section of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

If only it were this simple to put an end to Trump’s grand plan to start a world-wide trade war. The rhetoric is already taking its toll on the markets. So the Dow dropped over 1400 points over the week, while the S&P 500 was off 5.9%. Which statistic sounds worse? Of course the DJI number; so the media were all over that to spread hysteria. In fact though the Dow was down 5.7%… a little less than the S&P 500. And the ever popular Nasdaq fell 6.5%, making the 1400 point drop in the Dow look pretty good!

PTP… Naturally, our PTP score suffered with the overall market decline last week, in addition to the impact of a bit of trading. Buying into a dropping market was not such a good idea, but we didn’t know that early in the week. Both the S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index APARs turned negative by Friday’s close.

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Day by Day… Here’s how last week played out on a daily basis. The percentage changes in the actual indexes are shown relative to the previous Friday close. The results are grim, with US stocks taking the brunt of the losses.

PTA Perspective… The Delusion of Expertise among Financial Advisors Redux
“Redux” is a handy, but not often used, word that means “brought back”. Every now and then we pull a piece from our archives that has withstood the test of time, while at the same time is not simply a chapter describing previous events. We’re talking about a theme or some research that is as valuable now, as when we published it the first time. And yet, it contains knowledge that is still not well-appreciated in the present. In this case we’re talking about the delusional nature of financial advisor expertise. Come to understand how limited so-called “financial advisors” really are.

NEW SUBSCRIBERS: Please visit the Visitor Guide at our web site to gain a better understanding of what relative trend analysis™ is all about. It’ll help you understand the contents of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

Sigh! You’ve heard this from us many times before. It’s good to have a cartoonist visualize an ongoing (perpetual?) problem for investors… hysterical media!
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PTP… Our PTP Score (profit speedometer) has taken a breather again… down to 202% from 390% previously. Meanwhile, the S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR turned positive again at +6%, while the S&P 500 APAR retreated to +8% from +23% the previous week.

Last Week in the Major Indexes… In a bit of an about face. the major US indexes fell on a one-week basis (1.0-1.5%) while the Canadian indexes were modestly to the upside. Nasdaq continues to lead on a trend basis, and only the S&P/TSX Small Cap Index has a negative trend value.

PTA Perspective… Maximizing the Motion Metaphor!

All too many investors look at their gains and losses without a second thought to the time frame. Meanwhile, so many analysts pick price targets with only the vaguest reference to when the target will be achieved, because they know that no one will remember what they said in the distant future. Typical remark… “XYZ could reach $200 in the long term.” So this week we simply want to remind you of the many advantages of always looking at the velocity of your portfolio and the velocity of the stocks that you might consider buying. We also look at the fun aspects of investing this way. As an investor you can actually picture yourself as a race car driver, not someone running in a hamster wheel.

SYNOPSIS

Tariffs continued to be a big part of media coverage last week. If Trump manages to set off a worldwide trade war, everyone loses, but the US in particular.

PTP… Our PTP Score (profit speedometer) is on the move again… up to 390% from 101% previously. Meanwhile, the two benchmark APARs improved too. The S&P/TSX Composite APAR is still slightly negative, but the S&P 500 score turned positive to +23% from -9% a week earlier.
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Last Week in the Major Indexes… In the week-over-week tug of war, the numbers were mostly positive again last week. Gains ranged from zero to +4.2% on the week. We now have 4 major indexes with positive trend values again.

PTA Perspective… 9th Anniversary of the Latest Bull Market! Or is it?

Friday was supposedly the 9th Anniversary of the beginning of the current bull market, which began on March 9, 2009. There was a steady stream of stories on the topic from all the major Biz News outlets all day Friday and continuing into the weekend. So, we thought that we would weigh in on the event too; in spite of our mixed feelings about these magical numbers.

SYNOPSIS

The pendulum swings both ways, and while there’s practically zero evidence that Trump had anything to do with a continuing bull market that was in place for eight years before he was elected, there is abundant evidence that investors are running scared now… entirely due to his policies and threats. His tax cuts for the wealthy had minimal positive impact on the equities markets, but his attempts to launch an international trade war are quite reminiscent of Herbert Hoover’s similar tactics that took the US and most of the rest of the world into the 12 year long Great Depression starting in 1929.

PTP… Our PTP Score dropped a bit to 101% from 130% previously. The two benchmarks fell quite a bit too, with the S&P 500 APAR dropping from +12% to -9%, and the S&P/TSX Composite counterpart dropping to -20% from -7%.

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Last Week in the Major Indexes… Essentially all the one-week numbers were negative or unchanged across the major indexes. Many of the declines were -2% to -3% over the week.

PTA Perspective… NEO: a Quick First Look at Canada’s Newest Stock Exchange

If you can get over the horrific logo, we want to introduce you to Aequitas NEO… Canada’s newest securities exchange. Given that we ignored the Canadian Securities Exchange for years, before it became an epicentre for entrepreneurial startups, we want to make sure that doesn’t happen again. We’ll tell you what NEO is all about, and what it might mean to you. Spoiler alert… don’t get your hopes up just yet!