SYNOPSIS

There’a a misconception, even among many experienced investors that small cap stocks are really tiny companies with no earnings and maybe a couple million in revenues. That’s so far from the truth! The metric, first of all, is market capitalization, which is share price times the number of outstanding shares. To even qualify for the S&P Small Cap 600 index, a company requires a market cap of $300M to $1.4B. General guidelines that apply across most major indexes are: Large cap – $10B+, Mid cap – $2B to $10B, Small cap – less than $2B. At the very top there are the Mega caps – $200B+. At the very bottom you’ll sometimes see reference to Micro caps – $50M to $2B, and even Nano caps – less than $50M. It’s good to keep things in perspective! Smaller companies often have the best (price) growth potential in optimistic times, while investors tend to park their cash in large caps for safety (and dividends) when pessimistic about the economy.

Last week… The S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 both declined again this past week. The S&P/TSX Composite Index was hit hardest, with declining oil prices (again).
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PTP… Our PTP APAR score has had a major boost this past week, but we’re still coping with the very small portfolio issue. We could have just as easily seen a substantial decline. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR fell 14 points, while the S&P 500 APAR slipped into negative territory by dropping 15%.

We reluctantly added three new positions late last week. The trend/consistency pairs were acceptable, though well below what we would have preferred. We still see that the best place to be is in cash right now (or short positions), but we felt a need to have a few more long positions to stabilize swings in the PTP APAR. Our one longer-term position (15 weeks) is doing most of the heavy lifting right now. Hopefully that weight will be distributed if our new acquisitions appreciate in value.

PTA Perspective… 2019 – Q3 Review – North America
This week and next we bring you our summaries for Q3 2019. All of the details for North American stocks are included in this edition of TrendWatch Weekly. Next time we’ll provide a global perspective.

SYNOPSIS

Yes, an apparent paradox. Gloom and doom, yet some of the major North American indexes are toying with new highs. We started to untangle that mess last week, and this week offer more evidence that this is an illusion of sorts. The numbers don’t lie, but the factors shifting those numbers around have changed. It’s not optimism that is driving the indexes to new highs. It’s actually pessimism.

Last week… The S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 both declined this past week.
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PTP… Our PTP APAR score is still quite respectable after this past week, but we’re not bragging, because we have only one stock left! Be prepared for some wild APAR swings, or a quick move to zero if we sell our last holding. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR fell almost 20 points, while the S&P 500 APAR lost about 10.

We sold two positions last week, and failed to find any new opportunities that looked interesting. That leaves us with one stock!

PTA Perspective… Value vs Growth Stocks: Is There More to Think About?
We talked quite a bit about value vs growth last time, especially how measuring value and growth require different metrics. Dichotomizing stocks as one vs the other is misleading because it hides a lot of valuable information. This week we have uncovered another way to approach this exercise and perhaps put cash to work whenever momentum stocks are out of favour.

SYNOPSIS

Yes, passive investors — those who buy and hold a fixed portfolio of stocks for very long periods of time — don’t appear to care about price, including the falling value of their portfolios. At least some passive investors, who buy ETFs on major equity indexes, will know that they will never underperform those major indexes (unlike the first group). But, they will never outperform those major indexes either… a problem during bear markets. We expand on these issues and related topics in our PTA Perspective section this week.

Last week… The S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 went in opposite directions this past week.
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PTP… Our PTP APAR score more than doubled this past week, but we’re not bragging. When our portfolio is as small as it is right now, there can easily be wild swings in the APAR values. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR gained about 10 points, while the S&P 500 APAR lost about 10.

We bought two new positions last week, and sold two. We’re still at just three holdings. The major indexes may be flirting with new highs, but we’re just not finding enough individual stocks with strong consistent trends. Major indexes can inch higher on tiny positive trends among large cap stocks, but that’s not what we’re looking for.

PTA Perspective… Value vs Growth Stocks: Does it Matter?
There’s a lot of buzz in the media these days about switching to value stocks from growth stocks. Growth stocks, it is claimed, are over-priced, and with declining interest rates, some investors are switching for the dividends that some ”cheap” stocks pay out on a regular basis. These investors will sacrifice capital gains for income. We take a closer look at this in the full edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

The equities markets seem to have been behaving well over the past few weeks (especially since September is supposed to be the worst month of the year for being invested in stocks). Even our own more broadly-based metrics show a shift for more stocks trending up than down. Still, the number of “picks” (i.e. stocks that exceed our minimal screen of trend and consistency) is really not improving much. That could mean that we’re in a prolonged dead-cat bounce, or that we need to patiently wait for larger positive trends to convince ourselves that this stock revival is real.

Last week… Both the S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 continued to inch higher. There’s continuous talk of new all time highs soon.
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PTP… Our PTP APAR score gained some more this past week. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR and especially the S&P 500 APAR gained as well.

We sold two more positions last week and didn’t go shopping for replacements. We’re down to just three holdings.

PTA Perspective… Are You Ready for a Global Economic Collapse, Delivered to Your Door by the USA?
When we normally talk about top-down investing, we suggest that you start with countries/regions that have stocks moving higher, then get you to look at the best performing sectors within those regions. Finally, the idea is to pick the best performing stocks within those regions/sectors. But what if the entire world is facing a global economic collapse? Not something like the Great Recession of 2007-2009 caused by the USA, but something at least 10X worse, but also caused by the USA. How will you be picking stocks then? In this departure from our normal commentary (if anything here is to be considered normal!), we bring on two very intelligent well-educated individuals who have been analyzing this possibly. We include video clips where they lay out their principle concerns in person. Then we supplement those with our own commentary. In the end, you’ll have to decide for yourselves where your money should be.

SYNOPSIS

Between acting like a child and declaring himself God (“I am the Chosen One”, “I am the King of the Jews”), it’s been an interesting week of Trump-isms. In spite of that, the North American equities markets did move higher, and the gold rally since June reversed on Thursday and Friday. The American BizMedia naturally fabricated a lot of headlines to account for general equity market gains, but we’ve demonstrated through our own primary research that the ups and downs of the S&P 500 can be predicted before the US markets even open… by what has happened in the previous 12-16 hours in Asia and Europe. Accuracy rate: 70%. The US headlines are not backed by any evidence, so they have zero percent accuracy. The Hong Kong protesters won their battle against the Chinese extradition legislation, and that victory rallied the world markets. What happened in the US was irrelevant, except to Americans.

Last week… Both the S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 continued higher, although not to the extent of the previous week.

This is the main reason that why sildenafil for women buy many people referred Oral Jelly. To avoid acidity in future, one need to do a proper selection of the efficient drug among the available browse around for source buying cialis solutions, otherwise the wrong choice may start developing the adverse reactions instead of carrying out the rescue activity. vardenafil 20mg tab Possibility is higher that you might suffer from sexual addictions might struggle to concentrate on their daily responsibilities or have a bent to sexually harass co-workers. The observation shows that there may be some test that needs to become accomplished to be sure that your heart is still able to consider viagra pill Eriacta 100mg frequently that’ll enable you to have a noticeable difference and allows you to participate in sex with each therapy by using this medicine. PTP… Our PTP APAR score shrunk some more this past week, even as the overall markets rose. We found ourselves in a situation where we perhaps owned too many gold and silver stocks. Nonetheless, we’re still well ahead of S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index, and maintain a 34th weekly lead over our 8 year average APAR for the PTP.

In spite of our reluctance to trade under current circumstances, we sold two positions last week on our volatility-based sell-signals and added two more. But we’re still almost 60% in cash. That’s lower than we’d like to be, but remember that September is the worst month of the year to be invested in stocks.

PTA Perspective… Are You Ready for a Cold Winter?
We occasionally like to discuss how you can play the commodities markets using ETFs, especially those with some leverage attached. It’s risky, but the rewards can often justify that additional risk. This time we’re going to walk you through a natural gas trade… one that has significant support from seasonality research as well. The colder it gets this winter, the more this trade may warm your wallet.

SYNOPSIS

You’ll commonly hear traders and analysts talking about “buying on the dip”. It refers to seeing a stock that looks attractive but seems to be going up too consistently fast. The idea is to wait for an “inevitable” (hopefully minor) pull-back and buy it then instead. At that point the hope is that the stock will resume its trend. We consider this to be a foolish tactic, because it is so highly subjective. How do you know that there will be a pull-back anytime soon, and how big of a dip are you looking for? That dip (if and when it comes) could well be an outright reversal, not a time to be jumping in. No, we’ll stick with buying immediately when we see nicely up-trending stocks. When the dips are big enough to trigger a sell-signal, we depart and move on. Otherwise we’ll ride the trend indefinitely until a dip big enough (i.e. sell-signal) triggers our exit.

Last week… Both the S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 switched to the plus side over this past week with similar gains.

We all know that chronic prostatitis is accompanied with a high incidence among the young and middle-aged men. generika cialis tadalafil But they do so pdxcommercial.com cialis without prescription without mentioning it amongst their ingredients. The reason, more often than not, isn’t to deceive check for more cialis without prescription their partner but for the high price of the medicine, the medical science started to think what can be new at that present situation. One should see to it that they detect this particular disorder as soon as you get to know that you have to stimulate buy cialis soft next page sexual activity in order to get an erection, the increased blood flow will make the tablet inefficient. PTP… Our PTP APAR score shrunk appreciably this past week, but that was expected. Both the S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 APARs reversed to the upside, but not by that much.

We sold one highly-profitable stock last week on a sell-signal. That’s the main reason for the PTP decline, although our gold stocks experienced some weakness last week as well. We remain well above the comparable major index APARs, and in fact we’ve been above our 8 year average APAR for over 30 weeks in a row now.

PTA Perspective… September is the Worst Month for Stocks!
We’ve occasionally mentioned that September tends to be the worst month of the year to be invested in equities. This week we discuss just how bad, and whether that means that you should sell all your stock holdings immediately.

SYNOPSIS

And so it goes. We maybe get a couple good days in a row in the markets, and suddenly the tweets start flying again, and stocks go off the rails. The best we can do is remain patient and stick to our strategies. If we’re gradually pushed out of the equities arena, because we’re acting on our sell signals and refraining from buying new positions (because there are few of them), so be it. The opportunities will return.

Last week… Both the S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 took another hit last week. This time US stocks fell twice as much as Canadian counterparts.

PTP… Our PTP APAR score increased a bit during the past week. Both the S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 APARs fell deeper into negative territory. Both declined over 10 points relative to our previous report.
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No buys or sells in the PTP last week, as conditions deteriorate further.

PTA Perspective… Tale of Two Canadian Tech Sweethearts
We rarely publish much analysis and opinion on individual companies, but we can’t help but ignore the success of Shopify (SHOP) and Lightspeed POS (LSPD)… two TSX Information Technology stocks. Their shares are grossly overpriced according to most analysts, but that hasn’t stopped them from continuing higher. We take a look this week. They’re both addressing the same customer base, but the services and software that they respectively offer are more complementary than competitive. More in this week’s full edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

Cannabis Corner… We have our usual updated chart of the performance of the largest cannabis stocks (our “Billionaire Club” based on market cap). This group is still suffering from set-backs in share prices since the end of Q1. Q2 reporting season is pretty much over now, and very few results resulted in investor buying. When that did happen, the price surge lasted only a few days at best. We’ll likely put the Cannabis Corner on hold after this week’s discussion, until we see a resurgence of interest. (Our analysis will continue in the background, so that when we have some promising results, we’ll be back online.)

SYNOPSIS

Trump Tweets Unleash Extreme Market Volatility

There is never any doubt who’s causing market volatility, but keep in mind that volatility nowadays is mostly measured via VIX, a decidedly biased measure of true volatility. VIX climbs as investors rush into put options to hedge previous gains. That means they expect the S&P stocks to fall. A true measure of volatility assigns equal weight on gains and losses in a stock or index. It should not be something to fear. Volatility is getting a bad name, because it usually means that stocks are falling in value. Trump’s policies do cause that, but he contributes nothing to market gains. This may not be the most amusing cartoon, but be sure to check out Investing.com as an investment information hub if you haven’t already. Yahoo! Finance is pretty good for North American stocks, but Investing.com has far better global coverage. It’s also a source for some of the dynamically updated widgets in the Toolbox section of the PTA web site.

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PTP… Our PTP APAR score dropped a bit during the past week. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR fell into negative territory following the S&P 500 APAR which dropped further from -15% to -26%.

We sold one position in the PTP last week… that’s it.

Cannabis Corner… We have our usual updated chart of the performance of the largest cannabis stocks (our “Billionaire Club” based on market cap). This group is still suffering from set-backs in share prices since the end of Q1. It’s currently cannabis stock reporting season for Q2. There were a few stocks with excellent Q2 financial reports, but the resulting price gains gains didn’t last long. Investor confidence in this thematic market sector has definitely slipped. Step aside, unless you’re someone who prefers to pick bottoms in a down-trending market.

SYNOPSIS

Ever get that feeling that your stocks are heading for a brick wall, and you start to feel like a dummy? Chances are that you’re wrong (about the dummy part anyway). There are just times when a majority of all stocks head lower… yours included. We don’t need to discuss reasons for a mass sell-off, just accept the fact that they happen from time to time. Unfortunately, we may be sliding into one of those phases right now. More in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

Last week… We had the Canadian and US markets heading in opposite directions again last week, but not to any great extent.
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PTP… Our PTP APAR score remained fairly constant during the past week. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR rose a bit and the S&P 500 APAR turned even more negative.

We sold one position in the PTP last week and replaced it with another one. We’re continuing to select stocks based on the uptrend in gold bullion, and gold mining equities.

Cannabis Corner… We have our usual updated chart of the performance of the largest cannabis stocks (our “Billionaire Club” based on market cap). This group is still suffering from set-backs in share prices since the end of Q1. It’s currently cannabis stock reporting season for Q2. Most so far have substantially increased production and revenues, but only a small proportion have positive earnings. With regard to price shifts following the release of the financial results to date, profitable companies have been rewarded (price boost), whereas there has been a rush to the exits for those with substantial losses, particularly those with expanding losses.

SYNOPSIS

Have you ever had one of those weeks when you don’t like being reminded that some stocks have blown through the ceiling, while the overall markets were on a slide? Well, last week was one of those! In 5 trading days solar stocks Sunpower and Enphase Energy were up 47% and 40% respectively. Even in the dormant or declining pot patch, Aphria, Charlotte’s Web, Cannvas Medtech and Speakeasy Cannabis Club rose 34%, 42%, 32%, and 29% respectively. Yes… in 1 week, 5 trading days! Meanwhile, look at the S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index in the next section of our summary.

Last week… It was mostly bad news for the markets over the past week, in spite of a mixed bag of economic and geopolitical news.

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There was no trading activity in the PTP last week.

PTA Perspective… Selling with Style!
We have often emphasized the importance of knowing when to sell… in fact even more than how to pick stocks. Fear-of-loss is the biggest psychological threat to every investor’s portfolio performance. It’s been proven over and over again in academic research, and it’s been proven that active fund managers (mutual funds or actively managed ETFs) are just as susceptible or even more so. That’s why actively managed funds underperform even a simple baseline like S&P 500 85% of the time. This week we revisit the topic of how to set sell-signals and stick to your selling process!

Cannabis Corner… We have our usual updated chart of the performance of the largest cannabis stocks (our “Billionaire Club” based on market cap). This group is still suffering from set-backs in share prices since the end of Q1, but there were some positive surprises as well this past week (some previewed above with our cartoon commentary).