SYNOPSIS

It seems that the bulls (like us) may not have a grasp on reality when the media and the analysts they interview are all saying that this is the longest bull market in history… and should continue! A bear market is signalled by a 20% drop from recent highs. That actually has happened numerous times worldwide since 2009 (including Nasdaq and the S&P/TSX Composite Index as just two examples). The media ignored those to keep the 10-year bull-run myth alive. So who is it that doesn’t have a grip on reality? For our purposes, we’ll just go with the flow, and exit systematically before the media figure out that a bear has bitten them on the ass.

Last week… For the last full trading week of 2019, the results are positive. The S&P 500 took the lead as it often does. Whether you want to call this a Santa Claus Rally or not is up to you. At least we’re not ending the year as we did in 2018 after a horrendous Q4, which bottomed on December 24.

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PTP… We managed another surge in the PTP APAR over the past week, while each of the index APARs gained 8-10 points.

PTA Perspective… Season’s Greetings!
We’re keeping the Perspective section short this week. A few comments on inflation and what it means to you, with emphasis on Stats Canada’s latest economic report. Also, a recap of the key elements of using your ProfiTrend Advantage Membership to maximize your trading returns. But look forward to an extra long PTA Perspective next time as we start to bring you the Q4/Full 2019 Review. That will stretch out over 2-3 weeks of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

Not even the best of investors can shake the emotional aspects of trading entirely, so it’s to be expected for a novice for sure! That’s why we continuously recommend a rules-based approach to all buy/sell decisions. It reduces stress and leaves only positive emotions, such as when you celebrate yet another profitable year!

Last week… While the S&P performed better than the S&P/TSX Composite Index last week, there really seems to be a lack of enthusiasm in the markets in general as we wrap up another year. Still, with +18% year-to-date for the S&P/TSX Composite Index and +25% for S&P 500, that means that your own returns should be much higher. Something to celebrate!
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PTP… We managed another surge in the PTP APAR over the past week, while each of the index APARs were almost unchanged.

PTA Perspective… ETF Update
While we prefer a nimble trend-based stock-picking strategy to maximize profits, we recognize that ETFs can provide greater diversity and stability, especially for those who have less time to monitor their portfolios regularly. This week we bring you a top-level update on the state of the ETF industry and discuss how ETFs are finally displacing profit-limiting mutual funds. Learn more in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

Sorry, kid… it’s not going to happen! The unprovoked trade fiasco that Trump unleashed on the world (not just China) can’t be won, and the American people are paying the price every step of the way. Even when he’s removed from office next year, it could take at least a decade to repair the damage he has done. It’s not like the world can pretend it didn’t happen and go back to the previously acceptable trade balance.

Last week… Both indexes were practically unchanged last week. At this point it’s difficult to imagine any significant change before year-end, up or down. In fairness though, if the year closed at current year-to-date levels, we would consider 2019 a good year in equities.

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PTP… With a bit of trading we managed to coax the PTP APAR a little higher, while each of the index APARs fell back 5 points each.

PTA Perspective… What happened to the Seasonal Natural Gas Trade This Year?
One of the simplest and most consistently profitable calendar trades historically is based on the assumption that winter is colder than summer. We need to heat our homes and demand for natural gas generally increases prices. You don’t have to be a futures trader to take advantage of this nowadays, because there are ETFs based specifically on that commodity. But the trade doesn’t appear to be working this year. We provide the evidence and speculate a bit on what went wrong in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

This cartoon is a great reminder of a number of valuable points that we repeat often. The economist’s fallacy only applies to buy-hold investors, who always underperform the general markets and especially underperform the flexible do-it-yourself trader. The counter perspective is that if you cut your losses early and let your profits run indefinitely, you can afford to be wrong very often and still retire with far more profits than the complacent buy-hold practitioner.

Last week… Both indexes had modest one-week gains this past week, although US stocks were favoured.

Lily-ICOS has brought for you the wonder drug levitra generika 10mg to let a male get out of it. When erection issues arise, both of you end up in frustration and dissatisfaction. viagra cialis generic Alcoholics tend to viagra super have weak erections and thus fail to perform in bed or during first sex with a flabby and weak erection. The researchers were not able to pinpoint the exact reasons for the increase in testosterone levels when taking Sildenafil citrate contained medicines: Avoid taking buy viagra in spain similar name or duplicate products. PTP… With the US trading week shortened by the market closure on US Thanksgiving Thursday and a short 3.5 hour session on Friday (so Americans could spend more time on their Black Friday Shopping), trading was expected to be light, and it was. With Canadian trading also expected to be light in sympathy, it wasn’t the best week to initiate new positions overall. Nonetheless, we decided to attempt more PTP repair work after a rather abrupt decline in the PTP APAR a few weeks ago.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR gained 3 points and the S&P 500 APAR was up 8 from the previous week. We managed to bump the PTP APAR up from 47% to 159% by dropping one loser on a sell-signal and adding three new holdings. That’s pretty decent given the circumstances.

PTA Perspective… Why Everyone Should Keep an Eye on Apple (AAPL)
Although Apple (AAPL) is the biggest company in the world by market cap, the implications don’t always register with investors. This week we explore some of those implications. Is it possible that Apple’s share price moves precede (and even predict) the moves of the overall equities market? Some think so! More in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

US Thanksgiving Trade Post-Mortem
Since we featured the highly successful seasonal US Thanksgiving Trade in our last edition of TrendWatch Weekly, it seems appropriate to provide you with an update on how well it worked this time. SPOILER ALERT: It worked (for the most part)!

SYNOPSIS

Yes, there may be more new highs ahead, but at what cost? Unfortunately, each new high is just a tiny fraction ahead of the last one, yet that’s just enough to fuel the markets with FOMO (fear of missing out). It’s almost the end of November, and we’re not seeing that more-often-than-not year-end rally that carries most stocks significantly higher. Then again, we’re not seeing the carnage that year-end 2018 carried with it (yet).

Last week… Both indexes had similar small one-week declines this past week.
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PTP… The repair tactics that we kicked off for our damaged PTP APAR score didn’t hold up all that well, as we trimmed more losers and added replacements last week to shore up our previous efforts. The TSX and S&P APARs both dropped about 10 points last week, but while the PTP APAR fell sharply from 100, it held above the benchmark scores.

We disposed of two positions last week and added three more. Lately the momentum has been fizzling out on quite positive looking opportunities sooner than we’re used to. We take this as more evidence that whatever bull market conditions are left may be eroding. Still, we want to keep enough holdings in our portfolio to try to establish better stability than we’ve shown you lately. That may mean holding a few short positions as well.

PTA Perspective… The US Thanksgiving Day Trade
While most seasonality effects run over time spans of weeks, months and even years, there are some super short-term opportunities as well. Perhaps the best known are focussed on major US holidays… Memorial Day, Independence Day and Thanksgiving. You buy just ahead of the day before the holiday and sell at the end of the day after the holiday. The gains are small in nominal terms, but huge if you annualize the results, and your total holding time is just three days! We walk you through the details in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

Yes, new highs for the DJIA, S&P 500 and even Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Index this past week! We’ve been warning you for quite a number of weeks now, that these new highs were largely due to a handful of the highest market cap weighted stocks in each index, since the broader equities markets did not justify the enthusiasm of “new highs”. That has been changing, however. The broader markets (measured with our simple equally-weighted metric of proportion of stocks with positive trend values) have been catching up. Perhaps we have the beginnings of that Santa Clause Rally that is supposed to begin at about this time of year.

Last week… Both indexes had equal one-week gains this past week… not overwhelming in size, but in the right direction.

PTP… You may recall that our PTP APAR score was not only below our benchmarks last week, but actually a negative -1%. We put some “repair tactics” in place early in the week, and you can see the net result in the chart below. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR improved from 35% a week earlier to 37%, while the S&P 500 APAR fell slightly from 33% to +32%.
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We explained last week that wild swings might occur in our PTP APAR (or yours for that matter), when the number of constituents and their holding duration is quite small. We’ll walk you through what we did to get back in the driver’s seat in the full version of TrendWatch Weekly. As usual, one-week’s gain is not any assurance that we’ve undone the damage, but we’ll gain confidence as our PTP constituents keep rising over the coming weeks.

PTA Perspective… Time to Switch to Non-US Equities?
We read an interesting piece during the week on 10 year cycles where US equities vs non-US stocks are alternately favoured. As with most long-term cycles, the turning points aren’t very precise, but it appears that we’re near a 10-year turning point for US securities. If so, it may be time to sell US and move off-shore. We expand on that proposition in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

Featured Video… Ken Courtis on Global Investing Issues
It’s very rare, but we occasionally find a BizTV interview with someone who really tracks the big picture for investors very well and wraps the details up in a tightly logical package. Ken Courtis is a new discovery of ours, who is one of these people. (Check out his prestigious bio.) In this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly we embed a video of this recent interview. Learn how the US will soon be a distant second as a global economy, and how it will have to devalue its currency by 30-40% to ever hope to repair the self-inflicted damage caused by Trump’s trade wars.

SYNOPSIS

Yes, you’ll always find that brokers (if you have a full-service one), market analysts and financial advisors are always long on excuses! That’s why we advocate the do-it-yourself approach to all investors, no matter how experienced these “gurus” might claim to be. If they’re telling you about a proven market strategy backed up with long-term academic research, you might want to listen. But if they’re picking stocks or other securities for you to buy, you immediately know that they’re only interested in their own profitability… using your money.

Last week… Both indexes had gains again this past week., but for a change Canadian stocks took the lead!
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PTP… OUCH! Yes, that’s not a mistake in our calculations. Our PTP APAR score is not only below our benchmarks now, but actually negative. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR improved 25% to 35%, while the S&P 500 APAR moved up 7% to +33%.

We explained that wild swings might occur in our portfolio APAR (or yours for that matter), when the number of constituents and their holding duration is quite small. We’ll walk you through the details in the full version of TrendWatch Weekly. You can be assured that we’ll have portfolio repair tactics in place this coming week.

PTA Perspective… Update on “The Smart Money” – SSICI
After consistently reporting the monthly State Street Investor Confidence Index (SSICI) for quite a number of years, we put the brakes on, when our own in-depth historical research on the index showed that it had minimal predictive value. It appeared that the so-called “smart money” (institutional investors, like pension funds, etc… those with billions to move around as required) were actually following the lead of retail investors like you and I. It’s not quite that simple, but following the switches of big money back and forth between (risky) stocks and (safe) bonds was not providing any guidance to speak of to investors like us. So, we put the regular monthly reports on hold, but kept the analysis going in the background. We told you that we may revisit the SSICI data if anything interesting happened, Well, it has. Believe it or not there’s a mad rush into European stocks, in spite of everyday evidence to the contrary. We’ll share some commentary on this in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

The US Federal Reserve did in fact cut interest rates to 1.75% this past week. But with inflation at 2%, that means that “the real interest rate” is -0.25%. That may be great for borrowers, but banks will soon be charging customers to hold their customers’ money. Yet Trump wants more cuts! He never seems to realize that everything he does punishes the low-income blue-collar voters who elected him. They can’t get bank loans and certainly won’t be getting any interest income from bank deposits. And, stock market gains mean nothing to them.

Last week… Both indexes had gains again this past week.

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One new holding was added to the PTP last week (a play on natural gas as we roll into the winter months).

PTA Perspective… A Halloween Miracle & Halloween Massacre in the History of Finance
This week’s Perspective is a bit of a history lesson with Halloween Day, October 31, as the focal date. We look at the creation of Bitcoin on Halloween Day 2008 and Canada’s 2006 Halloween Massacre which robbed seniors and other investors looking for “reliable, safe income” of hundreds of millions of dollars overnight. The prime minister was Stephen Harper. His “executioner”, Jim “Flim Flam” Flaherty, his Finance Minister. More details in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

Ignore the fact that the S&P 500 and DJI are hitting all-time record highs. It’s meaningless when the “real market” is going nowhere… if anything it is drifting lower. That’s why the cartoon is so appropriate. There is investor complacency since the broader markets are not partying with the small handful of stocks that are moving the major indexes higher. Yet at the same time those of us mostly on the sidelines have a “fear of missing out” (FOMO) on the next big move whenever that happens. So enjoy the drinks, and let’s toast to a (normally) trend-positive November and December.

Last week… The S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 both had gains this past week, with US stocks leading the way.

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We still think the best place to be is mostly in cash right now (or taking a few short positions). There was no trading in the PTP last week, although we eliminated one position the week before.

PTA Perspective… Update on the Pot Patch
Although it’s probably premature to spend much time discussing investments in cannabis stocks at this time, we decided that an update is probably overdue. We’ve now entered Legal Cannabis Year 2.0 in Canada, and should see a variety of edibles, drinks and vape-able oils coming to a pot shop near you by year-end. That’s no guarantee of a quick turnaround in share prices… just a heads-up that the investing landscape in this sector may change soon.

SYNOPSIS

We don’t think anyone really has a prayer of seeing a US-China deal happen anytime soon. The media may manipulate some investors into believing that a deal is just around the corner, but that never leads to anything more than a one or two day pop to the upside before the prevailing downward trend resumes.

Last week… The S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 had modest moves this past week, but in opposite directions.
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PTP… Our PTP APAR score shrunk some this past week, as we added two new holdings. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR fell from 4% the previous week, while the S&P 500 APAR edged up into positive territory from -1% earlier.

We generally still think the best place to be is in cash right now (or taking short positions). Regardless, we bought a couple more long positions to try to stabilize swings in the PTP APAR. Our best longer-term position (17 weeks) is still doing most of the heavy lifting right now. Hopefully that weight will be distributed if our new acquisitions appreciate in value.

PTA Perspective… 2019 – Q3 Review – Global Perspective
All of the details for global stocks over Q3 (and looking forward) are included in this edition of TrendWatch Weekly. As usual we use ETFs and ADRs as our proxies for country/regional indexes.