SYNOPSIS

There is nothing like seeing a fairly prolonged period of high velocity return-on-investment in equities like right now. These are the times when “buy & hold” investors lose the most in terms of long-term returns. While we skim quick profits in weeks or months, the “buy/hold” camp are holding wasting investments with no one but their financial advisor raking in money from their retirement funds.

Day by Day… It was another zig-zag during the four days of trading last week; but both indexes ended higher. The S&P/TSX Composite Index almost doubled the performance of its US cousin, the S&P 500.

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PTP… The S&P APAR score lost a bit of ground over the past week, while the S&P/TSX Composite Index score gained 12%. Meanwhile, the PTP APAR held steady at 339% in spite of some active trading.

We acquired five new positions last week. More additions coming soon as we put remaining cash to work.

Cannabis Corner… Another week, another set of ups and downs across cannabis companies on a one-week basis. The trend leaders are rotating too, as you’ll see in the expanded section of this week’s TrendWatch Weekly.

PTA Perspective… The Whole World Is on Our Side!
Over the past month we’ve really emphasized the ideal conditions of North American market conditions. This week we have a peek at how the rest of the world is doing. The short answer, “Pretty damned well!” In the extended edition of TrendWatch Weekly, we show you all the detail and hopefully reassure you that Trump hasn’t destroyed the world-wide economy (yet!)

SYNOPSIS

Actually, don’t assume that your financial advisor is managing your retirement savings via “analytical software”. He’s not paid to even understand what that means. The “8 Ball” will do, and he gets his money, whether you see any profits or not! If you’re not investing all of your money yourself, now is the time to think about it. Market conditions right now should easily allow you to outperform the general benchmarks, and you won’t be paying an advisor to drain your savings into his pocket.

Day by Day… The previous one-week chart was choppy with the Joke of the Union matter, but the uptrend was intact again this past week. Smooth gains for both the S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500.

PTP… The S&P APAR score gained 17 percentage points over the past week, while the S&P/TSX Composite Index score gained 7%. Meanwhile, the PTP APAR was moved up to 339% from the previous report.
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We sold two positions last week and added one more. More additions coming soon. We’re far too heavily still in cash right now, given the amazingly bullish market conditions.

Cannabis Corner… Another week, another set of wild ups and downs across cannabis companies on a one-week basis. Meanwhile though, some of the bigger players have had rock solid upward trends. We’ve expanded our coverage in this week’s full edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

PTA Perspective… Why RTA Is Not a Good Match for BizTV: Redux
This week we’ve drawn from our “Best of…” features from our history. This one is from 2013. Those long-term subscribers who remember it can skip that section this week and go spend your time on your preparations for the upcoming trading week. We’re hoping it will have more value to newer members of our community. Presented as a scenario of why I’d never be invited to be a guest on a common business TV (BizTV) show, I poke a little fun at the boring, repetitive nature of business media coverage; and imply why there’s so much room for improvement.

SYNOPSIS

Well, we were off to a great start in the stock markets last week, and then Trump’s State of the Union Speech happened. Clearly, there were more lies and deceit contained in that session than most investors could tolerate.

Day by Day… The previous week’s rally extended into Monday and Tuesday, then the shit hit the fan; or more specifically Donald Trump presented his State of the Union speech. The S&P 500 and other major US indexes suffered the most, although in fairness the S&P 500 ended the week pretty much unchanged. The S&P/TSX Composite Index held its own through Wednesday and Thursday, before dipping on Friday. It ended the week 0.8% higher than the previous Friday.

PTP… The S&P APAR score was unchanged over the past week, while the S&P/TSX Composite Index score gained two percentage points. Meanwhile, the PTP APAR was cut in half to 244% from the previous report. Remember, however, that our goal is to stay substantially above the benchmarks. At 246% we’re still well ahead of our 400-week average of 108%. The long term averages for the benchmarks are 10% for the S&P/TSX Composite Index and 16% for the S&P 500.
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We added one position last week… a financial services software company.

Investor Confidence… The Global Investor Confidence Index decreased to 70.2 in January, down 9.4 points from December’s revised reading of 79.6. This is the lowest level ever reached in the 18 years that we’ve been following this index!

As usual we provide more detail on the regional ICI’s in the complete Investor Confidence section of TrendWatch Weekly, and some insight into what is going on here.

Cannabis Corner… Pot stocks generally retreated somewhat last week, after an excellent run-up since the beginning of the year. At this point the whole group may move either lower or higher based on forthcoming earnings reports for the previous quarter. This week Aurora, Tilray, Supreme Cannabis and Canopy will all be filing their financials.

SYNOPSIS

The probability that we’re in a dead-cat bounce is rapidly falling to zero. Almost everything we’re seeing suggests a full-blown resumption of the bull market after hitting that Christmas Eve low. If you want to see the best evidence of that, just have a look at the performance of cannabis companies since the beginning of the year.

Day by Day… US stocks started the week lower, but ended the week with a bigger gain than S&P/TSX Composite Index stocks.

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PTP… The gains in the S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index APARs were pretty modest compared to the PTP, which was at 264% last week. We’ve been easing into the markets again over the past several weeks with excellent results so far.

We sold one position last week. There was no sell signal, but it had remained practically unchanged for two months. We can find new positions with much better trend values than zero. In light of improving conditions we expect to be reducing our still substantial cash position ASAP.

PTA Perspective… If You Haven’t Tried Cannabis (Stocks) Yet, Now May be the Time!
We’re delaying our previously announced Q&A edition, but we could still use a few more questions. If something’s puzzling you about our PTA data, TrendWatch Weekly or the markets in general, simply use this link and express yourself. Meanwhile, cannabis stocks have taken off with a vengeance over the past month. We believe that there will be more profits to be made by discussing that now, rather than later.

SYNOPSIS

There is definitely more “bull” associated with the US president than with the stock market in recent years, although January’s price performance has been a pleasant change over a devastating final few months of 2018. So far, Christmas Eve is still holding as a correction low. Let’s keep it that way!

Day by Day… We were back to a more typical intra-week pattern last week with ups and downs and not much change overall. Remember that the US had a Monday holiday last week, but that doesn’t explain the underperformance of US stocks over the remainder of the week.

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We added two new positions last week.

Cannabis Corner… We’ve reshuffled the “$ Billionaire Club” (companies in the cannabis space with a market cap of $1 billion or more). We now have a few new members. Meanwhile, we still have Marijuana Stocks Weekly, our semi-autonomous web site with about 150 publicly-traded cannabis companies, complete with trend and consistency data, and some extra pages of useful information. The same trend data are also available in the Data & Charts Workbooks at the member site.

PTA Perspective… No in-depth coverage of a major topic this week. Just the basics. We’re probably due for another Q&A session next weekend. We’ve been accumulating reader questions, but could use a few more. If something’s puzzling you about our PTA data, TrendWatch Weekly or the markets in general, simply reply to the Synopsis email, or use this link and express yourself.

SYNOPSIS

Last week we discussed the Dead Cat Bounce phenomenon, and how difficult it is to distinguish a dead cat from the resumption of a bull market. We’ve decided to continue the discussion in more detail in this week’s PTA Perspective section. Meanwhile, the New Years Rally has continued this past week, and most major indexes are up more in the first three weeks of 2019, than they were down for all of 2018.

Day by Day… This 5-day chart is every bit as beautiful as the one last week, with no down days for either the S&P/TSX Composite Index or the S&P 500.

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We bought one stock on Monday and sold it on Friday, after an abrupt and very large reversal in direction. On Wednesday we added one more. While market conditions have improved a lot since the beginning of 2019, we have concerns that too much too fast may not be sustainable without another correction. For that reason we still have a huge amount of cash on the sidelines.

Cannabis Corner… The pot stocks were more volatile last week, after some good gains for a select few year-to-date. We’re still not seeing the consistency levels in this thematic group, that we like to see before investing

PTA Perspective… Resumption of the Bull Market or Dead Cat Bounce? – Part 2
While we hadn’t intended to extend last week’s discussion on the Dead Cat Bounce this soon, we had a lot of promising data and information come in on this topic over the course of last week. Some have argued that Christmas Eve marked the bottom of the Q4 slump in equities worldwide. But other data suggest that major indexes are rising with surprisingly little investor optimism. We share more details for both sides of the argument this week in TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

We seem to be experiencing the Santa Clause rally that we missed in December. We now have to decide whether this is the end of a correction in a very old bull market, or a a dead-cat bounce that can often happen near the beginning of a new bear market. We discuss this in more detail in this week’s PTA Perspective section.

Day by Day… Another week of gains… this time with no interruptions over the week.

PTP… Our PTP APAR score barely moved over the past week, but the S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 APARs reversed direction from their downward trajectory. The S&P/TSX Composite Index score moved from -6% to +29%, and the S&P 500 counterpart rose from -34% to +1%.
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We sold one position last week and bought one more. We still have only two positions, but that at least gives us an APAR score to follow. In other accounts, we’re still 100% in cash.

Cannabis Corner… There was definitely a revival of sorts in the pot patch last week. Some of the better known names gained 20% or more over the past five trading sessions.

PTA Perspective… Resumption of the Bull Market or Dead Cat Bounce?
A market rally after a prolonged downturn like the one we saw in late 2018 can feed on itself, as more and more investors speculate that this may be a bottom to the correction we’ve experienced, and the resumption of a very old bull market. Sometimes that’s true, but sometimes it’s a so-called “dead cat bounce”… a short upswing before the slump resumes. This week we discuss the implications of either side of this debate.

SYNOPSIS

Following the poor performance of equities as we wound down 2018, we’ve had two weeks of reasonable upside in the major indexes. That is hardly enough evidence, however, to assume that we’re beginning a new sustainable upswing. The majority of all equities are still trending lower.

Day by Day… We had a second week of gains last week, although Thursday’s declines threatened that outcome.

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We bought one ETF last week, based on (at least a temporary) improvement in precious metals prices.

Cannabis Corner… Some stocks in the pot patch had substantial gains last week, but a majority continue to trend lower.

PTA Perspective… 2018 – Year-End Review – Global Perspective
After providing a recap of the performance of North American stocks last week, we’re now taking you through a guided tour of global equities. It turns out that there were very few regional ETFs with net gains, so global diversification wouldn’t have been a good thing in 2018… although in many cases you may have lost less!

SYNOPSIS

Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index are in bear market territory now by the usual “-20% from the latest high” metric. As if we didn’t know that already. By our measures, we’ve been in bear market conditions for over two months now, and have been happily sitting on cash for the most part! So, how low could we go and for how long? Well, we don’t offer predictions of that sort, but a lot lower by historical standards! It’s not like we get an elastic snap-back once we reach this stage. After declining 20% in 2008 from the previous high, the markets continued to fall another 30%, for a grand total of -50%. Yes, many lost half of their retirement nest egg. Many left the stock markets then, never to return.

Day by Day… No doubt there was far too much hype focussed on the +5% gain in the major US indexes on Wednesday, while the Canadian markets were closed. It was interesting, but apparently a temporary blip on the radar. As per our cartoon above, nothing has changed.

PTP… Our PTP APAR score actually improved some more from 49% to 79%. Keep in mind though that we only have two holdings. One is a leveraged inverse ETF and the other is a stock that can’t fall in value, since it’s the target of a takeover bid which should close any day now at a fixed price. Meanwhile, the S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 scores are now a little less negative, relative to the near record lows the previous week.

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Investor Confidence… The State Street Global Investor Confidence Index decreased to 79.8 in December, down 2.8 points from November’s revised reading of 82.6. This is the lowest level ever reached in the 18 years that we’ve been following this index! Yes, even lower than at the bottom of the Great Recession.

As usual we provide more detail on the regional ICI’s in the complete Investor Confidence section of TrendWatch Weekly.

Cannabis Corner… There continue to be a steady stream of interesting stories in the pot patch, but few of them have had a substantial impact on stock prices. They continue to drift lower for the most part.

PTA Perspective… 2018 – Year-End Review – North America
With one last full day of 2018 trading ahead on Monday, we’ve decided to get a head start on our year-end analysis by using Friday’s close as our cut-off. If there’s a market crash on Monday, we’ll update the numbers we’re sharing in this week’s edition.

SYNOPSIS

Well, we now have market conditions that are close to the worst in the history of producing TrendWatch Weekly, and there’s no evidence yet that we’ll see a Santa Clause rally. It looks like it’ll be a lump of coal in our stocking this year.

Day by Day… Nothing but negative numbers over the past week, with the S&P down over 7%.

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PTP… Our PTP APAR score actually improved from 28% to 49% in spite of having very few holdings. Meanwhile, the S&P/TSX Composite Index score dropped sharply to -70%, and the S&P 500 APAR is a whopping -113%.

There was no trading in the PTP last week.

Cannabis Corner… It was another horrible week for pot stocks again, with our “$1 billion market cap club” stocks all down over the past week.