SYNOPSIS

Are you feeling that you should have ejected from the markets sooner. You’re probably not alone with that thought. Global events, whether factual or manufactured by the media, can sometimes create more turmoil than a lot of people can tolerate. If you’re not willing to try riskier solutions, it’s best to eject and sit on cash until the dust settles.

Last week… In our previous report we had to extend our value axis to -15% to accommodate -8.9% and -11.5% one-week losses for the S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 respectively. Last week was very tame by comparison. two half percentage point moves on opposite directions by the S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500.
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PTP… With the benchmark APARs, it’s only vaguely useful to say that there was an improvement in both the S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR and its S&P 500 counterpart. But both were less negative than the previous week by Friday’s close. Our PTP APAR, meanwhile, cracked 500% following a score of 355% last time. Same story… cut the losers and let the profitable holdings run. We even bought two new positions last week.

PTA Perspective… An Oily Correction!
Last time we tried to put the big losses of the previous week in perspective, and point to areas that might be profitable in turmoil. We expand that discussion in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly. The latest disruptor… the emergence of an OPEC/Russia crude oil price war over the weekend! We wrote this section after the market close on Monday, March 9, so we’re well aware of the 2000 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and all that went with that today. Hopefully, this will help you prepare for the rest of the week. We also compare today’s plunge with the worst one-day crash in the history of the stock market… Monday, October 19, 1987!

SYNOPSIS

Well, the media finally managed to create enough unsubstantiated hysteria about COVID-19 to scare many investors out of the stock markets last week. Commodities markets too. Market manipulation should be a criminal offence, and yet how many executives from TV news channels and business newspapers have been charged and put on trial so far? (Yes, that’s a rhetorical question!)

Last week… The one-week results are the worst we’ve seen in many years. A 10% decline for a year would be bad, let alone one week.
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PTP… The benchmark APARs turned drastically negative as you can see. Meanwhile, our PTP APAR held its ground, although down 75 points from last week’s reading. We sold numerous positions on sell signals throughout the week.

PTA Perspective… Taking Stock of a Hellish Week!
Last week’s equities meltdown was certainly not fun to watch. Devastation across the board. But were there any bright spots out there? We did some research to find out, and bring you the results in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

The sentence “There’s a sucker born every minute” is often attributed to the circus tycoon P. T. Barnum, but there’s apparently little to no evidence that he was the source. All the same, the expression (or some variation of it) has been used by scam artists for probably over a century. And no scam artists use it more than mutual fund sales people! They extract horrific fees from their “customers” and virtually never deliver returns-on-investment that exceed the market averages. In fact, considerably less. Like used car salesmen, they know that they’re deliberately feeding the customer lies, knowing full well that the customer will be buying a lemon. And yet the general public falls victim to mutual funds as a way to invest in equities almost as much now as ever before. There is (at least) one sucker born every minute, and with mutual funds possibly 10,000 of them. ETFs are a bridge out of the mutual fund trap, but scam artists (i.e. your bank or financial advisor) will not make anywhere near the profits from you as they will with mutual funds. We know that you know better, but please have this discussion with friends who aren’t as enlightened as you are. They’ll appreciate it in the long term.

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PTP… The benchmark APARs dropped 10% and 18% respectively. Meanwhile, we our PTP APAR held pretty steady… up 3 points from last week’s reading. We were active with our other accounts, so left the PTP to fend for itself over the past trading week.

PTA Perspective… The 30th Anniversary of a Great Canadian Invention: The Exchange Traded Fund (ETF)
Yes, Canada invented the ETF, as it did the Java programming language, basketball, the paint roller, the garbage bag, peanut butter and the Wonderbra to name just a few! Lots of data and discussion on ETFs and their history and prospects in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

This cartoon applies to all fund managers, financial advisors and anyone else who profits from controlling your investments directly or indirectly. That’s why you’re a do-it-yourself investor/trader right?

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PTP… The benchmark APARs moved up 7% and 11% respectively. Meanwhile, we boosted our PTP APAR from 267% to 428% with our simple recipe… hold your winners, and ditch your losers, using buy/sell thresholds that match your tolerance for risk.

PTA Perspective… Do the Equities Markets Like a Democratic or Republican President in the White House?
Spoiler alert… Democratic presidents by far! Lot’s of data and discussion on that in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

We’ve been expecting the bear to come out of hibernation for quite some time now, but it’s been ages since we’ve seen even a 10% correction. Perhaps this bear will just snack on the groundhogs and go back to sleep. Meanwhile, Media Idiocy Virus (MIV) is spreading roughly 10X faster than 2019-nCoV. The two most obvious symptoms are a massive drop in IQ among journalists and BizTV talking heads, and a stutter-like urge to say “coronavirus” in every sentence. E.g., “Temperatures in Toronto will drop 5 degrees tomorrow, coronavirus.”

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PTP… The benchmark APARs moved up, bringing the S&P 500 APAR back to the positive side. The PTP APAR slipped just a bit week over week.

PTA Perspective… The Mysterious Biopharma Explosion in Stock Prices!
Most sectors and sub-sectors have a seasonal time of year. For Biotechnology and Pharmaceutical companies, stock prices normally rise mid-June to mid-September. It’s a time of year when these companies present their latest scientific results at major summer conferences. But something is different this time around. For the past several months (after that seasonality window), biopharma stocks have outperformed almost every sector and sub-sector out there. We don’t have an explanation for you, but we’ll discuss this in more detail and simply appreciate the windfall profits. More in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

The pink bird always has good advice for the fund manager! There are actually funds out there that claim to be low volatility, and naive investors gobble them up. LOL! Unlike VIX, which only demonstrates the downside of volatility, real volatility swings both ways. You can’t have price appreciation without upward volatility… hopefully more and better upswings than downswings. Kill volatility and your money will be best stored under your mattress.

Last week… The media have escalated their hysterical Mexican beer virus coverage, and naive investors are pressing the sell button, not realizing that it’s all lies and misleading info.
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PTP… The benchmark APARs declined 18% and 33% respectively. The PTP APAR managed another increase as we dumped losers.

PTA Perspective… The Media Offensive Against Investor Profits!
OK, so we’re getting a bit dramatic with our own headlines, but it’s impossible to ignore the fact that the media are attempting to orchestrate a stock market collapse based on a novel, but so far inconsequential, flu virus. If there ever were a conspiracy theory for maximum profitability, it would be to short everything and turn on the media hysteria to proclaim that a virus will destroy the equities markets! More on this in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

Well, the business media are delighted once again to create “investment hysteria” about a flu virus. Too many investors unfortunately believe the media’s unsubstantiated claims that the flu will destroy the equities markets worldwide. Media hysteria creates fear, and fear brings eyeballs to the BizTV channels. And more eyeballs means more ad revenue for the networks. It also causes naive investors to start selling too soon. Do the media care about your profitability with your investments? Of course not. They only care about their own profits!

Last week… Recent regular weekly gains came to a halt last week. The media blame the Mexican Beer Virus, but a pause and pull-back is well overdue. The virus came along at a convenient time to “explain” the so-far smallish retreat.
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PTP… The benchmark APARs declined 10% and 19% respectfully. The PTP APAR dropped over 100 points to 236%, but you can see that we’re well above the market averages as usual.

PTA Perspective… China Sneezes and American Equities Markets Get the Flu
As usual the BizMedia exaggerate all the negatives in the world and ignore all positive news. It’s the best way for them to keep eyeballs glued to their coverage and gain advertising revenue, which is based on those eyeballs. We’re not going to trivialize a new virus that is killing people, but think seriously about whether your utilities stocks or your shares of Shopify or Facebook or your favourite grocer are going to be crushed by coronavirus, before you get totally irrational. Since we really don’t know much now, we’ll walk you through a few worst case scenarios and remind you that the markets are overdue for a correction anyway in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

So true on several levels! The bird is right! With our ProfiTrend Portfolio we’re constantly taking small losses via our volatility-based sell signals; but our top three positions have gains of +107%, +93% and +35%, respectively. And the holding time for all of those is 7 weeks or less. Those are the ones that matter! And, finally, our APAR tracking score provides instant gratification when we dump losing positions by increasing in value. It turns fear of loss into a sense of deep satisfaction!

Last week… More gains last week and more new record highs on the major indexes. Not even Trump can stop the bulls; even though his Phase 1 China deal has nothing of any significance in it.
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PTP… The benchmark APARs moved up over the past week 7% and 16% respectively, but the PTP APAR surged from 121% to 362%… mostly on the back of the same biopharma companies that punished us the previous week.

PTA Perspective… Tracking a Thematic Sector: A Practical Guide
We’ve been getting more requests for practical applications of the ProfiTrend Advantage and it’s relative trend analysis™ (RTA) underpinnings. So this week we offer a step-by-step guide to doing your own research on a thematic sector of your choosing. We’ve decided to use Renewable Energy & Clean Technology as our theme, just because that area is finally showing some good signs of outperforming other companies in other sectors.. After following our methodology, you can apply the same template to any other thematic sector you’d like to explore. All the details are in this edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

Last week… The first full week of trading in 2020 provided some gains on a one-week basis… especially for Canadian stocks for a change.

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PTP… Changes in the benchmark APARs barely moved over the past week, but the PTP APAR retreated considerably, as strong trends in biopharma stocks started to top out. We perhaps held too many of them.

PTA Perspective… 2019 – Q4 (Year End) Review – Global Perspective
This week we bring you the “global” version of our year-end 2019 review. As usual there are many countries that have outperformed North American equities, in spite of strong results for Canada and the US last year.

SYNOPSIS

This cartoon captures nicely how much a money manager or financial advisor cares about your investment returns! He’s only interested in his own compensation. Depending on the firm you rely on, 2% + 20% isn’t unusual. Smaller operations take less; so-called “established” money managers take more. And, yes, for those unfamiliar with the percentages, your money manager charges 2% of the capital you are investing with him up front, and takes 20% of your profits (if any). And no, the up-front fee is not refundable if he shrinks your original investment, and he’s certainly not going to cover your losses, if he fails to make your nest egg grow. Yet another reason for you to be fully in control of your financial destiny!

Last week… The shortened Xmas week is rarely one of big swings in stock prices. In fact trading activity practically dries up altogether. At very least we’re not ending the year as we did 2018 with a horrendous Q4.

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PTP… We managed another jump in the PTP APAR over the past week (from 390% in our last report). Meanwhile, the TSX APAR gained 6 points, while the S&P dropped 4.

PTA Perspective… 2019 – Q4 (Year End) Review – North America
While technically there is another two days of trading in 2019, we’re declaring last Friday the end of 2019 to get on with our year-end progress report, based on the overall market and sector indexes that we track weekly from our trend perspective. As with prior quarterly reports, we start with the North American results, and will follow-on with a global perspective in the next edition of TrendWatch Weekly.