SYNOPSIS

So true! So many ways to shoot yourself in the foot or someplace more deadly! You could shoot yourself, if you (1) get into buy/hold investing, (2) let a financial advisor invest your money, (3) listen to the stock picks on a BizTV channel and actually buy them, (4) sell your winners too soon, and hold your losers hoping that they’ll revive, (5) abandon a strategy that’s working for you in favour of trying something different.
Do-it-yourself investing doesn’t require a lot of time, but it does require discipline. The approach we’re taking here is designed for someone that may only want to spend an hour or so on weekends to decide whether they should be buying or selling anything in the upcoming week. Sorry, checking your progress every 3 months isn’t good enough, and expecting the trend and consistency values here to give you buy/hold opportunities for a year is ridiculous. Stocks that trend will continue upward longer than those that don’t, but not forever! You need to rotate your holdings to make as much money as you can as fast as you can!

Last week… We had another up-week last week as both of our benchmarks ended with an even bigger gain than the previous week.
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PTP… The APARs for both S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 have moved up nicely. Meanwhile, even with just three stocks left, our PTP APAR has pulled back just a little bit. Still the PTP APAR has been above our 9 year average score for 20 consecutive weeks now.

PTA Perspective… 2020 – Q3 Review – Global Perspective
Yes, it’s quarterly review time once again. Last time we brought you the North American assessment of Q3 over Q2. This week we go global by sizing up the performance of world-wide ETFs and ADRs. We’ll take you through the details in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

Anyone who believes that inflation is dead, will be seriously shocked when it comes back with a vengeance! Even now, if you simply deposit your pay cheque in a 1% interest savings account, while inflation is only 2%, you should realize that they’re losing 50% relative to the cost of living (unless your pay increases are inflation adjusted)! That’s why investing all nonessential funds is so critical to ensuring a financial future that will support your needs in retirement. One of the worst pieces of advice that most financial advisors give clients as they approach their retirement years is to quit investing in equities and “preserve your capital”. Ridiculous! If you’ve done well investing in your younger years and haven’t lost your mental capacities, you are crazy to stop expanding your capital in retirement. Life spans are still increasing! Besides, in your retirement years, you’ll have more time to focus on refining the investment strategies that have already worked well for you in the past. To be advised to preserve your capital after retirement is to be told that you’re old and stupid! If you think that might apply to you, fine; but if you think otherwise, tell your advisor what he or she can do with their advice.

Last week… We had an up-week last week as both of our benchmarks ended with a reasonable gain.
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PTP… The APARs for both S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 are back on the positive side again. Meanwhile, even with just three stocks left, our PTP APAR has climbed another 40 points or so.

PTA Perspective… 2020 – Q3 Review – North America
It’s quarterly review time again and we take a rear-view look at how the year-to-date numbers have progressed or declined over the past quarter. As before, we’ll be reviewing North American performance numbers first; then move on to a global perspective next time.

SYNOPSIS

The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) has been a cornerstone of financial economics for decades. It assumes that stock (or any other) prices immediately incorporate all available knowledge that could contribute to prices all the time. Consequently, EMH says that no one can ever “beat the market” for very long. Some of us with fattening portfolios well above the market averages would beg to differ!

Anyway, as the cartoon depicts, there are also some radical exceptions to EMH like market crashes, and many of those can be explained by behavioural economists… psychologists who have argued that EMH depends on the assumption that investors are 100% rational all the time. That assumption, of course, is ridiculous (to psychologists anyway)! EMH couldn’t explain any stock market crash like the one in Feb/March this year, since there was no new widely disseminated information that would explain the plunging prices. There was no efficiency there!

As my friend said that he is not icks.org viagra uk able to achieve and maintain sufficiently hard erection. Why Buy Online? When you use online platforms like the above to buy Kamagra, UK and EU customers are assured viagra canada mastercard to receive free delivery of their order. Using a cheap cialis 20mg substitute is a much safer way to treat your erectile dysfunction problem. Nevertheless, there is no denying uk cialis sales that online pharmacies are much cheaper than their brick-and-mortar counterparts. Last week… Another negative week on a one-week basis. It may not look too bad, but these one-week losses are accumulating. You’ll see as you work your way through the newsletter that the damage is worse than you might think.

PTP… The APARs for both S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 are now negative… not a good sign. Meanwhile, even with just three stocks left, our PTP APAR is still a respectable 329%… still well about the long-term average.

PTA Perspective… Top Year-to-Date ETF Performances
Continuing with last week’s theme, this time we had a look at the best performing ETFs year-to-date. Yes, it’s looking back, when we should be looking forward, but there’s confirmation there for the trends that we talked about months ago, that led up to those gains.

SYNOPSIS

If you think that you can succeed as an investor/trader without data and some math to glue the data together, you might as well just watch BizTV “analysts”, who have neither data nor any math/stat skills behind them… just opinions and enough salesmanship to promote their employer’s products. Only do-it-yourself traders and investors know what’s really going on!

Last week… No upside again this week, but the damage wasn’t too bad. The TSX remained relatively unchanged again, and the S&P500 dropped just 0.6%.
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PTP… Contrary to the simple one-week moves above on the indexes, the APARs of both S&P 500 and TSX rose. The TSX score doubled and the S&P APAR moved up 4 points. Meanwhile our PTP score shifted up about 20 points. Remember that these data are based on equally weighting all constituent stock price moves. That can often be quite different from the market cap weighted indexes, where a small number of very large market cap constituents can essentially move the markets (misleadingly)

PTA Perspective… Top Year-to-Date Stock Performances for TSX and S&P
We tend to be traders looking through the windshield, not the rear-view mirror, but occasionally it’s interesting to look back on changes relative to a fixed past date. We do that with major indexes and sector indexes on a quarterly basis, but we tend to skip over the individual stock stars that boosted those indexes higher. We know you can’t change the past, but maybe you can verify that the approach you’re taking for buying and selling individual equities has paid off. More details in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

Smiling or not, volatility is never a reason for concern, unless you use VIX (“the Fear Index”) as your measure. Real volatility swings both ways. Rapidly accelerating stock prices increase real volatility just as much as price declines. The VIX creator had the best of intentions in mind, but neglected to realize the growing pool of research results in behavioural economics. People are far more scared of losses than they are euphoric about gains. So even though VIX calculations include both Call (optimistic) Options and Put (pessimistic) Options, traders buy Puts far more often than Calls… especially after the markets sell-off sharply. So, VIX is a “fear-gauge”; but that’s not what it was intended to be. Meanwhile, real volatility can be a close friend. Recognize the difference between the evil and the smile!

Last week… No upside last week. The TSX remained relatively unchanged, but the S&P500 dropped 2.5%.
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PTP… Well, it’s been two weeks since our last edition, so we’ve lost some of that week-over-week continuity. The TSX and S&P500 APARs have dropped about 75%, while our PTP has roughly been cut in half.

PTA Perspective… Are You Ready to Invest in Psychedelics Companies?
In recent years we’ve been so successful with finding niche thematic sectors (as opposed to our standard top-down approach), that we’re constantly looking for the next big wave to surf! Not all, of course, will suddenly create a splash, especially when the number of participants is small, but it can’t hurt to begin a list and track trends. Our latest is Psychedelics! Yes, the mind-altering drugs some of us remember from the 60s and 70s… LSD, Magic Mushrooms, MDMA. The medical benefits of some of these are currently under approved drug trials now… for depression, ADHD, PTSD, addiction, and other mental health conditions, plus weight loss. Possibly a bit early, but we’re telling you more about potential opportunities in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

As you watch or read about the general markets these days, you might conclude that “Mr. Market” is bullish. After all, the major indexes are bumping against or nudging through the previous day’s record highs. But then you have to realize that there are a half-dozen mega-cap tech stocks moving the market cap weighted indexes higher. Still, as we’ll show you today, even the broader markets are doing fine. We’re not really at “Bat Shit Crazy” yet!

Last week… Another up week for our two main benchmarks. We’ve returned to a balanced zero-centred chart style for this one. If you keep past issues around, this will make visual comparisons easier. One-week moves rarely exceed 5%. (If that happens we’ll do a temporary extension.)
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PTP… This scale for this chart has to stay floating, since the moves for the PTP can be quite extreme. The PTP APAR has been as high as 1380% over the past 500 weeks and as low as -292%. Our median is 125%. Negative readings are extremely rare, since normally we sell everything before that happens. Over this past week we’ve lost about 100 points on the PTP, but our benchmarks rose. +1% for TSX and +20% for S&P.

PTA Perspective…Dow Jones Industrial Average: What a Quaint Old Index! Should It Be Retired?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average really shouldn’t exist anymore, but there it is, every day, often taken more seriously than the S&P 500 by the media. We have a look at this crazy phenomenon in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly, especially since there have been some recent adjustments to the DJIA’s 30-stock component list.

SYNOPSIS

Isn’t this the way that 99% of “analysts” on BizTV come across to you, as the media monkeys interview them? You don’t need to have any credentials to be an “analyst”. You may not even need a high school diploma. You just need to “fling some poo” and call it “good advice for long-term investors”. Be your own analyst. You won’t regret it!

Last week… This chart is almost identical to the previous one. We had a fourth week in a row of gains for the S&P on a one-week basis. The past two weeks have been as close to unchanged as you can get for the TSX.
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PTP… The S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index APARs actually dropped quite a bit week-over-week. Meanwhile, our PTP APAR added another 120 points. We’re OK with that!

PTA Perspective… Update on Covid-19 Companies
Last week we talked about upcoming changes to the PTA member web site, and what you might expect soon. “Soon” is a relative term of course, because these transitions take time. Meanwhile, we thought you might be interested in what’s happening with the Covid-19 companies that we introduced you to in late June, with an update in the third week of July. The size of the APAR for the PTP is considerably due to investments in that thematic sector. But it’s really high-risk, so you have to be nimble with your trading. As usual we warn that buy/hold would be the stupidest thing you could do. Lots more detail in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

Sad, but true! Not just your son or daughter, but their kids and grandkids too. The pandemic has given politicians the option to spend insanely, while getting credit for doing so by citizens. It’s a big vote grab as usual. If you ever want a quick real-time reminder, have a look at The US Debt Clock. And, don’t just look at the soon-to-be $30 trillion in debt. Look at the Unfunded Liabilities near bottom-right… closing in on $155 trillion! Debt is money owed now. Unfunded Liabilities is money owed in the future. Yes, money that will be required to support US citizens with what we call CPP (Canada Pension Plan) and OAS (Old Age Security) in Canada among other things. It’s money that’s supposed to be available when the time comes, but it’s not considered debt right now. But it is future debt! Google around a bit with a “debt clock” search and you’ll find the same sort of debt clock for other countries. They’ll be scary too, but not as bad as what the US is currently shrugging off.

Last week… We had a third week in a row of gains on a one-week basis… mostly tiny or almost non-existent (in the case of TSX).

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PTP… The S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index APARs were virtually unchanged week-over-week. Meanwhile, our PTP APAR rose to over 700. We’re OK with that!

PTA Perspective… Pending PTA Web Site Changes… Feedback Welcome!
The previous weekend’s computer software glitches have sensitized us to having backups, not just of our data files (which has always been the case), but also preserving older copies of software as well on older hardware. Upgrades tend to focus on new features, not on previously reliable features that have been removed. The incident has also prompted us to rethink the formats and content of the Data & Charts Workbooks. We believe that more info can be provided in more compact formats, so we’ll be redesigning some of the workbooks. That is this week’s Perspective topic in TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

Trump should be quite happy about the reduced value of the US dollar recently. It makes it cheaper for those outside the country to buy US goods, and more expensive for US consumers to buy foreign goods. He prefers to ignore the fact that it also shows a lack of confidence in the US economy.

Last week… We had a second week in a row of gains on a one-week basis. There is still an appetite for equities and many other assets for that matter.
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PTP… The S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index APARs had some nice gains of about 20 points or so. Meanwhile, our PTP APAR rose over 100 points.

PTA Perspective… Currency Commentary
This week we discuss currency fluctuations (i.e. exchange rates). Most people ignore them, unless they’re travelling and need foreign cash when they arrive. They don’t want to be gouged by the banks and credit card companies. Also, in some cases it may even affect the timing of foreign vacations… not that there are too many of those happening right now. We’re more concerned about the implications, when it comes to investing in stocks and other assets outside your own national borders.

SYNOPSIS

Yes, even the bull should be scared given the economic collapse that is happening. But should we be too? Well, we observe trends and follow them… we don’t and probably shouldn’t even try to explain them. The trends are still to the upside in the stock markets, so we’ll keep riding that wave until it ends.

Last week… We bounced back from the previous week’s decline to erase the earlier losses and still gain some extra.

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PTP… The S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index APARs declined a little, while our PTP APAR held fairly steady week-over-week.

PTA Perspective… Cannabis Sector Update: Summer 2020
This week we decided to have a closer look at the cannabis thematic sector once again, with very low expectations. But we did come up with some amazingly positive surprises. We’ll share those with you in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.