SYNOPSIS

We love to find cartoons that encourage our relative trend analysis™ (RTA) approach. Everything is relative to everything else that is going on. That’s why US media sources are so dangerous, when they imply that all markets in the world are focussed on the US. We provide the numbers. The US media only provide fictional speculation. Last week we saw one headline implying that Asian markets the day before fell because of something Trump said today, and another one that proclaimed that the Brazil markets collapsed because of Trump firing the FBI director. Believe me, Brazil has it’s own problems, and most Brazilians couldn’t give a shit about what’s happening in the US. Even bikini waxes are more relevant there.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) is till holding steady at 66%, close to the levels of the past two weeks. The S&P 500 APAR dropped again to just 1%, while the TSX APAR is unchanged from a week earlier.

Last Week in the Indexes… All of the seven major indexes that we discuss weekly were unchanged or negative on a one week %-change basis. Only the large cap US indexes — Nasdaq Composite Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and S&P 500 — still have positive trend values.
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PTA Premium Subscribers… Databases being re-worked

We minimize updates for our Premium Service subscribers, because they’re a fairly small minority of PTA Members. We know that they’re the number crunchers, who probably don’t need our direct support anyway. Anyway, just a quick not to say that we’re well into our quarterly revisions. That means purging out the database records (whether US, Canadian or ETF- All North American), and adding new issues. We’re done with Canada for a few months, and have just recently done a major purge & add to the US records. We’re now up to nearly 10,000 US entries with complete Trend & Consistency numbers every weekend. ETFs are up next. You’d think they would be more stable, but ETP providers are actually quick to drop ETPs that don’t sell, yet will introduce new ones on speculation that they might sell. More on this after our next round of edits.

Seasonality… US Treasuries

Our go-to guy for calendar effects may be dumping all equities until November, but he’s still talking a good story about US Treasury Bonds. It’s embedded in the full version of TrendWatch Weekly, but you can also see it via this link.

SYNOPSIS

I wish we had this much excitement in the stock market! Not so, so far this year. Volatility (as measured by VIX) briefly hit another all-time low last week. No matter how much unjustified hysteria the biz media try to generate about geopolitical issues, investors apparently are getting quite good at ignoring it. Well done investors! Unfortunately, it takes volatility to move the markets substantially higher too, so we’re still stuck in this sideways limbo.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) declined slightly this past week to 65% from 67% a week earlier. The S&P 500 APAR dropped 10 points, while the TSX APAR improved a few points from a week earlier. a week earlier.

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Last Week in the Indexes… Even the beaten down Canadian small cap indexes improved on a one-week basis, although the S&P/TSX Venture Index and S&P/TSX Small Cap Index trend values remain negative. The tech heavy Nasdaq remains our major index trend leader for now.

PTA Perspective… Re-Shaping The ProfiTrend Advantage!

In our efforts for continuous improvement of the services under the ProfiTrend umbrella, we like to re-think our approach every quarter or two and look for improvements. This is one of those times. Recognizing that more isn’t necessarily better, and that timely is more important than a couple days late, we’ll be making some changes that we hope you’ll appreciate. Details to follow in the full edition of TrendWatch Weekly. But for now, welcome to Sunday delivery on this fine Mothers Day.

SYNOPSIS

Volatility (as measured by VIX) briefly hit an all-time low last week. Investors are totally oblivious to geopolitical issues, and perhaps they should be. Such events are simply distractions from the real science of investing. Did the winner of the French election on Sunday affect your stock picks this week? I know it won’t affect those involving the ProfiTrend Portfolio. Closer to home, this most recent round of quarterly earnings reports has been phenomenal. S&P 500 earnings grew by 13% in the first quarter, the index’s fastest year-over-year growth since the third quarter of 2011, according to Goldman Sachs. About 50% of firms have beaten earnings forecasts, above the long-term average of 46%. Further, 41% of companies have exceeded revenue estimates, the most positive ratio of surprises in almost six years. A weaker dollar has also contributed to investor optimism. The US Dollar Index has fallen to its lowest level since right after the US presidential election, down by 4.5% from a 14-year high reached December 28.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) continued to improve this past week to 67% from 55% a week earlier. The S&P 500 APAR improved by a few more points, while the TSX APAR declined to 7% from 13% a week earlier.

Last Week in the Indexes… The Canadian small cap indexes (S&P/TSX Small Cap Index and S&P/TSX Venture Index) continued to decline substantially last week, while most of the US indexes improved between 1.5% and 2.3% over the week.
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PTA Perspective… Contracts for Difference (CFDs)… Are They Right for You?

Almost everyone knows what buying and selling stocks are all about; and probably most investors know that there are other ways to trade stock indexes, commodities, currencies, bonds, and more exotic financial instruments through something called futures and options. What about CFDs? …contracts for difference? Although these instruments have been available since the 90s, we rarely encounter anyone who’s heard of them. That, in spite of the fact that they’re enormously popular in 26 countries. Why? Because the USA is not one of those 26 countries! Since Americans consider the US the centre of the universe, the US biz media won’t even consider talking about them. They might as well be imaginary! And since the Canadian biz media take their lead from south of the border, Canadians don’t hear much about CFDs either. Nonetheless, you should know what they’re about, whether you invest in them or not. That’s this week’s topic.

Seasonality… We think that we did a nice job of debunking the proposition that you should stay out of the stock markets in May through October in our report two weeks ago. All the same we like to direct readers to counterarguments that are well researched and reported. For that reason, this week we link you to Brooke Thackray’s recent 12 page report documenting his bias toward staying out of the markets until November. We’ll let you decide for yourself.

SYNOPSIS

Volatility (as measured by VIX) briefly hit an all-time low last week. Investors are totally oblivious to geopolitical issues, and perhaps they should be. Such events are simply distractions from the real science of investing. Did the winner of the French election on Sunday affect your stock picks this week? I know it won’t affect those involving the ProfiTrend Portfolio. Closer to home, this most recent round of quarterly earnings reports has been phenomenal. S&P 500 earnings grew by 13% in the first quarter, the index’s fastest year-over-year growth since the third quarter of 2011, according to Goldman Sachs. About 50% of firms have beaten earnings forecasts, above the long-term average of 46%. Further, 41% of companies have exceeded revenue estimates, the most positive ratio of surprises in almost six years. A weaker dollar has also contributed to investor optimism. The US Dollar Index has fallen to its lowest level since right after the US presidential election, down by 4.5% from a 14-year high reached December 28.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) continued to improve this past week to 67% from 55% a week earlier. The S&P 500 APAR improved by a few more points, while the TSX APAR declined to 7% from 13% a week earlier.

Last Week in the Indexes… The Canadian small cap indexes (S&P/TSX Small Cap Index and S&P/TSX Venture Index) continued to decline substantially last week, while most of the US indexes improved between 1.5% and 2.3% over the week.
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PTA Perspective… Contracts for Difference (CFDs)… Are They Right for You?

Almost everyone knows what buying and selling stocks are all about; and probably most investors know that there are other ways to trade stock indexes, commodities, currencies, bonds, and more exotic financial instruments through something called futures and options. What about CFDs? …contracts for difference? Although these instruments have been available since the 90s, we rarely encounter anyone who’s heard of them. That, in spite of the fact that they’re enormously popular in 26 countries. Why? Because the USA is not one of those 26 countries! Since Americans consider the US the centre of the universe, the US biz media won’t even consider talking about them. They might as well be imaginary! And since the Canadian biz media take their lead from south of the border, Canadians don’t hear much about CFDs either. Nonetheless, you should know what they’re about, whether you invest in them or not. That’s this week’s topic.

Seasonality… We think that we did a nice job of debunking the proposition that you should stay out of the stock markets in May through October in our report two weeks ago. All the same we like to direct readers to counterarguments that are well researched and reported. For that reason, this week we link you to Brooke Thackray’s recent 12 page report documenting his bias toward staying out of the markets until November. We’ll let you decide for yourself.

SYNOPSIS

Volatility (as measured by VIX) is back to near all time lows. Investors are apparently unconcerned about there being a loose cannon in the White House. It’s as if they expect him to be gone very soon. Perhaps they’re right. Trump set two records in his first 100 days in office: (1) First US president to not pass a single piece of legislation during that period, and (2) He holds the lowest approval ratings of any US president after 100 days in office at 39%. Corporate tax reductions, if they ever happen, may finally boost stock prices, but who knows when that will happen. Meanwhile Canadian stocks and the Loonie are suffering from Trump’s tariff threats.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) continued to improve this past week to 55%. The S&P 500 APAR improved by a few points, while the TSX APAR declined by a point over the previous week.

Last Week in the Indexes… The Canadian small cap indexes (S&P/TSX Small Cap Index and S&P/TSX Venture Index) continued to decline substantially last week, while most of the US indexes improved between 1.5% and 2.3% over the week.
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PTA Perspective… Spreadsheet Tips & Tricks for the Do-It-Yourself Investor

This week we diverge from studying the markets to discuss some useful, but relatively little known, techniques that should help investors make the most of using spreadsheets for investment planning and tracking. Even those using more advanced investment analysis software should find something useful here, since even high-end data modelling often starts with spreadsheet files.

SYNOPSIS

Some of the “big news” last week was that volatility (specifically VIX) shot up to a high of around 16. Yep, that could spook a stampede out of stocks alright… unless you remember that the long term average for VIX is 16. Volatility has returned to normal after being well below normal since last November.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) finally turned positive again this past week. The S&P 500 APAR turned positive as well, compared to last week, while the TSX APAR declined slightly.

Last Week in the Indexes… The Canadian small cap indexes (S&P/TSX Small Cap Index and S&P/TSX Venture Index) turned sharply lower last week, while most of the other indexes improved. The Russell 2000 rose almost 3% over the week, proving once again that US small caps can’t be compared with the pool of Canadian small caps.

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PTA Perspective… Sell in May & Go Away! REALLY?

There is some evidence that over a very long time an investor can obtain a better return in the stock market by only holding stocks in November through October, than being invested year-round. We have a quick look at the evidence supporting that claim, then tear it apart.

Investor Confidence… The April results for the State Street Investor Confidence Index were released today. The Global ICI increased to 99.5, up 2.6 points from March’s revised reading of 96.9.

We chart the regional results as well in the full edition of TrendWatch Weekly. Teaser: All regions were up except Asia.

SYNOPSIS

Some of the “big news” last week was that volatility (specifically VIX) shot up to a high of around 16. Yep, that could spook a stampede out of stocks alright… unless you remember that the long term average for VIX is 16. Volatility has returned to normal after being well below normal since last November.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) continued lower this past week. The two benchmark APARs declined too… with the S&P 500 APAR turning negative as well. Misery loves company!

As we’ve mentioned before, recovery takes a while when all new stocks are acquired at almost the same time, after a bout of profit-taking and loss cutting due to multiple sell signals. In our case the net PTP loss is -1% over an average holding time of 2 weeks. All the same it’s still worthwhile seeing this on an annualized basis. It’s a clear call to action when your portfolio starts underperforming the benchmarks.

Last Week in the Indexes… Only the S&P/TSX Venture Index gained last week among the major indexes that we report weekly, and only the Canadian small cap indexes (S&P/TSX Small Cap Index and S&P/TSX Venture Index) still have positive trend values. All of the major US indexes declined 1% or more last week.
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PTA Perspective… Trump Bump? WRONG! Trump Dump!

There are so many reasons why the business media’s attribution of the Trump election to improving stock markets is dead wrong, that it’s almost incomprehensible that they have the nerve to keep telling that story. Quite frankly, we try not to care who’s in the White House when making our investment decisions; but this week we’ll provide lots of evidence that, if anything, Trump has been more damaging to the equities markets than advantageous. It’s just too hard to sit back and accept the distorted and blatantly false media account of a “Trump Bump”.

SYNOPSIS

The markets seem invincible to all geopolitical events and economic rumblings nowadays. Even Trump’s attempt to kickstart WW3 had almost no impact on stock prices or volatility. It’s frustrating to be in a limbo, where stocks aren’t rising or falling to any significant degree. Perhaps now, more than ever, we need to be looking to invest overseas. Our discussion this week of the returns on foreign equities confirms that.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) actually turned even more this past week. We are no longer ahead of the S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR and the S&P 500 APAR values, but have a plan in place to repair that temporary setback.

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PTA Perspective… 2017 – 1st Quarter Review – Part 2 – Global Equities

Last week we gave you the macro index and sector summary of North American equities in Q1 2017. This week we continue with the performance of foreign stocks. You’ll see that there were more than a few places in the world to get far better returns on your invested capital than Canada and the US. Now we need to decide whether that pattern will continue in Q2.

SYNOPSIS

It seems that nothing can lift the volatility of stocks (as measured by VIX) from almost all-time lows. The median VIX value over the past 5 years is about 16. VIX hasn’t been above 16 since just before the American election; and then only for a couple days. Some mistakenly think low volatility is good, but it isn’t. Without volatility stocks don’t rise. They may not fall much either, but that isn’t the recipe for profits. Perhaps because of that, North American investors are moving their money into foreign equities, through regional ETFs and ADRs. Fortunately, we have the tools at our web site to facilitate your own migration, if you should choose to do so.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) actually turned negative this past week. We are no longer ahead of the S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR and the S&P 500 APAR values.

This is extremely rare, but it has happen a few times before, during the many decades that we have been relying on relative trend analysis™ (RTA) as the core screener for our investments. In this week’s TrendWatch Weekly we explain what happened and what we’re doing about it.

Last Week in the Indexes… On a one week basis, most indexes were up last week. The Russell 2000 rose 2.3% week-over-week, reversing a 2.7% drop a week earlier; and several other indexes had 1%+ moves. The gains were enough to turn all of our seven index trend values positive.

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PTA Perspective… 2017 – 1st Quarter Review

It’s hard to believe that we’re 25% of the way through 2017 already. That means that it’s time for our quarterly review, which will be split across two editions of TrendWatch Weekly (possibly even a third). This week we concentrate on the performance of North American equities… the major indexes and the sectors. Next time we’ll take a more global perspective.

Investor Confidence… The March results for the State Street Investor Confidence Index were released last week. The Global ICI increased to 95.4, up 4.2 points from February’s revised reading of 91.2.

We chart the regional results as well in the full edition of TrendWatch Weekly. Teaser: All regions were up except North America.

SYNOPSIS

Yes, volatility is still remarkably low, even after a week like last week. On Tuesday, we had the first one-day drop of more than 1% in the major indexes in more than about 100 days. Still VIX only popped up less than 2 points, then retreated through the rest of the week. But in spite of the major indexes still being near record highs, the broader markets continue to deteriorate.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) dropped from 72% last week to only 28% as of last Friday. We’re still ahead of the S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR, which is at 8% and the S&P 500 APAR which dropped from 21% to 9%.

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Last Week in the Indexes… On a one week basis, most indexes fell last week to varying degrees, and especially on Tuesday. Only the S&P/TSX Small Cap Index rose a small 0.3%. US small caps on the other hand were decimated as the Russell 2000 fell 2.7%. All of the major indexes we track now have trend values between +0.3% and -0.3%. This doesn’t bode well for short-term returns.

PTA Perspective… A Low Volatility Path to Riches?
Can you find stocks that outperform the market averages with less volatility than the the major indexes themselves. Absolutely not! Without volatility, stock prices would never move … up or down. That’s why this week’s controversial topic steps outside trading normal equities. We’ve covered this before, and are reluctant to spend too much time on tactics outside of our core relative trend analysis™ (RTA); but we’ve gathered even more evidence that shows that our volatility strategy may be even more lucrative than we previously expected. Something to complement RTA, not displace it.

Seasonality… Two more short videos from Brooke Thackray were posted last week. We share them here. One on the current status of the S&P 500 and the other on the Consumer Discretionary sector.