SYNOPSIS

We covered the new Bitcoin surge a couple weeks ago, and it appears that young kids have noticed that too! In a single transaction last week, one financial company bought just shy of $1 billion’s worth. We’re not talking about arm-chair speculators anymore.

Last week… It’s always a struggle deciding whether we should keep the horizontal scale constant, because there sometimes are weekly moves that approach +/-10%. But as in our previous report, this past week was not one of those. Almost nothing for the TSX and a small gain for the S&P.

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PTP… We’re not too concerned about a minimal adjustment down for the PTP APAR. S&P’s number was almost unchanged week-over-week, but the TSX APAR was down over 10%. They are still good numbers on an annualized basis.

PTA Perspective… Fun with Ratios!
The ProfiTrend Advantage has a central theme that it’s all about putting things in perspective. Relative trend analysis™ (RTA) wouldn’t be possible without that feature. But perhaps you haven’t thought about putting other financial measurements in perspective too. This week in TrendWatch Weekly we talk about the key underlying bit of arithmetic… the simple ratio. We walk you through an example with discussion of other things you need to keep in mind.

SYNOPSIS

Such great advice in one simple slogan. No matter how much media bullshit, or market volatility comes our way, do-it-yourself investors can simply “adjust the sails” to turn adversity into profits. Sail on my friends!

Last week… Once again, it’s been one of those “move along, nothing to see here” weeks. A bit of downside for the S&P, while the TSX was basically unchanged.
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PTP… We’re content with adding another 70% added to our PTP APAR. The benchmark APARs are still also performing well too, although down from our last report. Don’t forget that the usual annualized gains for the S&P 500 and other major indexes is 10%! Take advantage of these trends for the time being, even if you just buy a passive index ETF.

PTA Perspective… Are the Markets Too Bullish?
As much as we’d like our investments to follow a nice smooth consistent trend upwards, there are always reversals now and then. Probably less of them with our relative trend analysis™ (RTA) methodology, but we’re not going to deny that trends do end now and then… temporarily or permanently. But what happens when all of the markets look too good to be true? Well, words like correction (-10%) and new bear market (-20%) start popping up. Are we there yet? That’s our topic is this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

Lots of economists and independent analysts (key word is “independent”, most “analysts” are just salesmen) are now telling us that the value of the USD will drop for the next 10-12 years. Some claim that there will not be a rebound from there this time. Factor that into your equation when buying US vs worldwide equities.

Last week… OK… not much, but gains are gains!
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PTP… We’re content with adding another 100% to our PTP APAR… especially after that embarrassing negative score about three weeks ago. The benchmark APARs are still holding some way-better-than-normal positive APARs. Don’t forget that the usual annualized gains for the S&P 500 and other major indexes is 10%! Take advantage of these trends for the time being, even if you just buy a passive index ETF.

PTA Perspective… Remember Bitcoin? It’s Still Alive & Well!
Does anyone remember that on May 22, 2010, someone traded 10,000 Bitcoin for some pizza in what is widely believed to be the first real-world transaction involving Bitcoin. Each year, on May 22, Bitcoin enthusiasts all over the world celebrate “Bitcoin Pizza Day” to mark the event. Bitcoin then was worth less than a penny. One Bitcoin now is worth about US$20,000 (about C$25,000). And everyone laughed cryptocurrencies off as a fad. That’s always a good way to kiss enormous profits goodbye. More in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

Anyone getting bloated from too many all time highs in the major indexes? We’re not, especially since the broader market is participating. This isn’t just the mega-caps hoisting the indexes up as often happens.

Last week… Quite acceptable gains on both sides of the border this week.

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Anyway, we’re on our way again and also happy to see our benchmarks at levels we haven’t see in quite a while too.

PTA Perspective… What’s Up with the Smart Money?
We used to report the State Street Investor Confidence Index every month just after it was released. It’s a measure of money moved by large institutional investors between stocks (riskier) and bonds (super-safe). We don’t publish it monthly anymore (for reasons we’ll get into), but it’s worth having a look now and then. The “smart money” still appears pretty dumb in 2020. More in this edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

This is another trick that financial advisors or money managers will do. They’ll buy an ETF for your account and charge you a fee beyond the MER already being charged, if you bought it yourself. That’s better than letting them pick stocks for you, but it’s a guarantee of mediocre performance. Yes, the “best stock” is in there, but as a do-it-yourself investor, you’ll know which one that is by following the momentum stats for the stocks in the ETF’s index!

Last week… Up in Canada, a little down in the US. Not a whole lot to be concerned or excited about.
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PTP… OK, after a somewhat embarrassing minus number (-108%) on the PTP APAR last time, I assured you that such problems with a portfolio with almost no stocks left in it, would likely rebound fairly quickly with some new purchases of stocks with attractive trends. Well, we haven’t blown past our benchmarks yet (which are actually pretty good right now in terms of their usual performance), but we’re on our way. As we wrap this up on Tuesday, the PTP APAR is up to 260%.

PTA Perspective… The Bold Boom in Electrical Vehicles!
In July we shared a look at another thematic sector… Transportation as a Service (TaaS). It’s a broad category including UBER and Lyft and food delivery and electric cars (EVs) and self-driving vehicles and charging stations and batteries. We have another look in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly… still mainly focussing on EVs. Tesla may be the media darling with their stock price, but others are performing much better on a trend basis.

SYNOPSIS

A couple weeks back I introduced you to a highly reliable predictor of the outcome of US elections. It’s been 87% accurate going back to 1928. And, it’s based simply on the performance of the S&P 500 during the three months leading up to election day. Well, I’m pleased to say that it was wrong this time! It was not in the cards for Trump to win; and if he’s planning to sue everyone who voted for Biden, I hope the US taxpayers aren’t going to be paying his legal bills!

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PTP… The APARs for both S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 each more than doubled over past week. Our PTP, sadly, went the opposite direction. We gave you a heads-up about this possibility in our last edition. When you’re rebuilding a portfolio practically from nothing, very small price changes can produce very large annualized changes… large losses in fact if those small changes are negative. More details of course in the expanded version of this week’s TrendWatch Weekly.
PTA Perspective… Another Green Gold Rush for Cannabis Stocks?
We’ll take a look at another of our thematic sectors — cannabis stocks — this week. Members already have access to regular weekly updates, but the cannabis group has been down so long, that you may not have noticed the uptick that has happened over the past two weeks. We’ll point out the key changes that we’ve observed and what they might mean going forward. HINT: With five more US states having legalized in one form or another in the latest election, the legal market size keeps growing.

SYNOPSIS

Yes, both! There’s a good reason that 85% of funds (excluding passive index ETFs) fail to even keep up with the most appropriate index to compare them to. The answer is both “inept” and “dumb”. And by letting a financial advisor pick the funds, you’d be multiplying your “inept” and “dumb” losses. Simple probability… .15 X .15 = .0225. Yes, 98% likelihood that you will lose relative to the market averages. Keep doing your homework, and stay ahead of the markets!
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Last week… Almost the polar opposite of the previous week. Sharp gains… confirming well established data that show that US elections have no impact on the markets whatsoever. But everyone in the media will make up stories anyway every day.

PTP… The APARs for both S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 swung from negative to positive again last week. Our PTP, while accurate, is computed from simply buying two new stocks to double our count from 2 to 4. By Friday’s close, the results could have just as easily been negative, instead of doubling from the previous week. We’re far more comfortable in our PTP APAR stability, when we have closer to 10 stocks, or at least longer holding times with a smaller number.
PTA Perspective… So, What About Those Covid-19 Stocks?
We’re having another look at our Covid-19 database in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly. The list contains companies working on vaccines, treatments and testing. There was a lot of enthusiasm and rapid stock gains from the beginning. But ironically the closer these companies come to bringing product to market the less interest there is among investors.

SYNOPSIS

Last week certainly delivered Halloween horrors in the markets. Our PTP felt them too. But we remind you that VIX is not a real measure of volatility. It’s a measure of how people are reacting to sharp downturns in the markets by buying put options to reduce their losses. It’s like buying fire insurance, when your house is already on fire! The premiums are high! But with a standard regime of using appropriate sell points for what you are holding, the damage last week should have been reduced from what it could have been. We can’t emphasize enough that your sell plan is more important than your buy decisions.
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Last week… Major one-week losses. What more can we say?

PTP… The APARs for both S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 were (as expected) influenced by major one-week losses across the board. Both have flipped negative again. Our PTP looks healthy, but our APAR was chopped almost in half. But that’s still above our almost 10-year average of 125%.
PTA Perspective… Can the Stock Market Really Predict US Election Outcomes?
This is something the US or Canadian TV media don’t want you to know, because they’ll lose so much ad revenue if you don’t watch their shit all evening Tuesday. There’s a predictor of US election outcomes that is almost 90% accurate, so you know the results at 4pm election day, when the S&P 500 closes. You’ll find the winner, the magic formula and the data behind it in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

So true! But we’re constantly amazed at investors who wear their favourite stock(s) like tattoos… refusing to ever give them up. It’s buy/hold at its worst. We remember one guy who started accumulating a Canadian tech penny stock; and after more buying over a couple years claimed that his shares in that one company were worth over $1 million! That may have been true, but we watched him hold those shares all the way down until the company went bankrupt. But maybe he still has a tattoo as a reminder!
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Last week… There’s not much to see here. Small weekly losses.

PTP… The APARs for both S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 were (again) almost unchanged. Meanwhile, our PTP APAR rose about 100% with new purchases last week, and dropping one loser.

SYNOPSIS

So true! Let’s not forget that anyone can legally call themselves a financial advisor in Canada. And, while some educational firms may offer a course or two in advising people in how to invest, the “diploma” you might get at the end for the money you paid means nothing. There are no regulatory guidelines for whatever designation is handed out from the course, since there is no standardized certification process. Print your own diploma at home for free and get it framed! Then invite your friends over and for $100 each, tell them which lottery tickets to buy!

Last week… After a previously fairly positive week, Not much happened last week. A tiny gain for the S&P and a small decline for the S&P/TSX Composite Index.
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PTP… The APARs for both S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 were almost unchanged. Meanwhile, even with just three stocks left, our PTP APAR is still at about 300%. PTP APAR has been above our 9 year average score of 125 for 21 consecutive weeks now.

PTA Perspective… Anatomy of a Great Chart
With most charts that are used in finance and investing, you’re getting a snapshot of the performance of a stock or sector, or index… typically price over time. But some charts are prepared from independent research and stand-alone as reference documents to summarize a wealth of information in a compact format. Those are the “keepers”. They won’t be updated tomorrow or in 15 minutes like the rest. This week we feature one such chart, and explain what makes a great chart stand-out from the rest. The underlying principles will help you make your own great charts or at least help you recognize and keep those that you’ve found elsewhere.