SYNOPSIS

It’s so good to see major US stock indexes performing near record highs, but we’re kind of just hovering at those levels. Each new high isn’t a big leap forward, it’s a snail’s pace increase. That’s OK, but we’d rather ignore the “record highs” nonsense and see the market advance substantially on a weekly basis, as would be the case in a truly robust bull market.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) edged up to 73% from 69% a week earlier. That’s still ahead of the S&P 500 APAR which fell to 21%, and the S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR which finally is positive again at +2%.

Last Week in the Sectors… Nine of ten of the S&P 500 sector trend values are positive now, while only three of those the the S&P/TSX Composite Index are. In spite of that, even the US sector trend values are drifting down toward zero, relative to a week ago.
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PTA Trend/Consistency Lookup Console Now Available! This past week we’ve added a new item to the submenu of Toolbox at the (members only) ProfiTrend Advantage web site. It’s labelled T/C Console in the submenu, and it takes you to a page where you can look up the trend & consistency values for a subset of all of the Premium Services Databases without paying the Premium Service fees. 10,000+ equities. Try it out, and let us know what you think. Instructions are provided in this week’s full edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

Investor Confidence… The July results for the State Street Investor Confidence Index were released this past week. The Global Investor Confidence Index increased to 108.9, up 7.9 points from June’s revised reading of 101.

As usual we provide more detail on the regional ICI’s in the full edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

It’s so good to see major US stock indexes performing near record highs, but we’re kind of just hovering at those levels. Each new high isn’t a big leap forward, it’s a snail’s pace increase. That’s OK, but we’d rather ignore the “record highs” and see market advance substantially on a weekly basis, as would be the case in a robust bull market.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) moved up to 69% from 50% a week earlier. That’s still ahead of the S&P 500 APAR which dropped a point to 21%, and the S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR which (while still negative) has moved up to -2%.
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Last Week in the Sectors… S&P 500 sectors Information Technology and Health Care continue to advance at 0.7% per week. Only two Canadian sectors have positive trend values worth noting, and they’re small… Health Care and Telecommunication Services.

Feature… A Seasonal Calendar with Probabilistic Expectations
You no doubt already know that we include data and information on seasonality (aka calendar effects) fairly regularly. We draw our input from a Canadian source, mainly because BrookeThackray has more info on calendar effects for both Canadian and American markets than other sources we’ve found… through his annually updated book and newsletter and occasional videos. We certainly don’t believe that any investor could be highly profitable using solely seasonal stats, but yet it’s still a decent probabilistic source of information. Every investor should be playing probabilities which work in their favour. This week we introduce a big chart that illustrates at least 80% of what’s in Thackray’s book. We tell you all about it this week, and demonstrate how we’ll be zooming into subsets (sub-charts) every now and then to keep you up to date. We’ll also provide some probabilistic expectation data that are derived from, but not available in anything Thackray has published to date. That’s the most important part!

SYNOPSIS

Nasdaq bounced back 2.6% last week, as tech stocks regained some of the ground they lost in June and early July. In fact all of the indexes rose on a one-week basis, although Canadian stocks continue to trend lower.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) moved up a little further to 50% from 44% a week earlier. That’s still ahead of the S&P 500 APAR which rose to 22%, and the S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR which is still negative.

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Last Week in the Sectors… S&P 500 Financial Services, Information Technology, Health Care and Industrials are close to on par now as the sectors to watch for stock selection opportunities.

Featured Charts… A Little-Known Predictor for Equities: The Gold/Platinum Ratio
We all know that gold (aside from it’s jewelry use) is often treated as a currency. It’s often purchased as a hedge against inflation, and other forms of economic and geopolitical risk. When stock markets plunge, the price of gold rises and vice versa. Currently gold is struggling, while stocks are still hanging in there near record highs. But this relationship is not all that reliable; and Cornell University finance professor, Darien Huang, has research to support the notion that the gold/platinum ratio is a far better predictor of future stock market moves in both one and five year horizons. We have a closer look at that this week.

SYNOPSIS

One thing that should be totally obvious by now is that any media attributions of stock market gains to Trump’s election are foolish and unfounded. Stock markets almost always rise in November/December/January, so that’s just a seasonal effect. Since then, the markets have mostly been moving sideways, so no tip-of-the-hat to Trump for that. And finally, the business media haven’t noticed that just about every stock market in the world has outperformed US markets this year (except sadly Canada, which has fared worse). Lot’s more on that in this week’s edition.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) gained a bit to 44% from 41% a week earlier. That’s still ahead of the S&P 500 APAR which edged up to to 11%, and the S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR which turned decidedly negative.

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Last Week in the Major Indexes… Nasdaq recovered a bit after a previously disastrous week. All index trend values are below or just slightly above zero.

Last Week in the Sectors… US Financial Services have shown some signs of improvement, but only a few sector trend values are positive right now.

Featured Charts… 2017 First Half Review – Global Indexes via ETFs
We continue our first half 2017 coverage with a look at the global context. As with our Q1 report, we’ve found that a huge majority of the world’s stock markets are still outperforming those in the US and Canada. Investing abroad via foreign ETFs or ADRs is definitely something to consider.

SYNOPSIS

If you have plenty of tech stocks in your portfolio, this may have been you last week… definitely not sure that you want another ride like that! In fairness, we did warn you several times that June is the worst month of the year for Information Technology stocks. Did we follow our own advice on that? Not entirely, unfortunately. Some of those juicy trend values were too hard to resist. The good news is that July’s gains in Information Technology equities typically offset June losses. Let’s hope that it’s a typical July in that respect.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) plunged to 41% from 104% a week earlier. Mind you, that’s still ahead of the S&P 500 APAR which pulled back to 11%, and the S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR which dropped from 5% to zero.

Last Week in the Major Indexes… Nasdaq took a -2.0% hit last week, and VIX actually spiked above 15% briefly. The S&P/TSX Small Cap Index was the only major index that we track that had a reasonable 1-week gain of 0.6%
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Last Week in the Sectors… Forget tech! Health Care and (US-) Financial Services are better places to look for profits right now.

Featured Charts… 2017 First Half Review – North America – Major Indexes & Sectors
It’s hard to believe that we’re half way through the year already, but it’s true. Q2 wrapped up on Friday, and the final week was anything but calm! After running through the best bets based on trend, we take a look back at what’s happened so far during the first six months of 2017.

Investor Confidence… The June results for the State Street Investor Confidence Index were released this past week. The Global Investor Confidence Index declined slightly in June. The Index now stands at 101.0, down from May’s revised reading of 102.6.

As usual we provide more detail on the regional ICI’s in the main body of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

There is actually no evidence yet that we’re anywhere near having a full-fledged correction in stocks yet. That would mean a 10%+ decline from recent highs, and several of the major indexes are still hitting new record highs almost every week. A correction will happen eventually, and as with the cartoon, we won’t know at that time whether or not the correction will continue downward into a full bear market (-20% or more), nor will we know how long that might last. Fortunately, with the ProfiTrend Advantage and the underlying relative trend analysis™ (RTA) methodology, it won’t matter to us. We’ll know what to sell and when before the ship goes down.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) shot up to 104% over the past week. The S&P 500 APAR fell to 14%, but the S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR factually shed its previous loss to end up at 5% as of week end.

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Last Week in the Major Indexes… The Nasdaq revival after the slump two Fridays ago really took hold last week as the Nasdaq gained 1.8% on a one-week basis. Two top Canadian indexes also rose about +1.0% too, after many weeks of declining readings.

Last Week in the Sectors… Health Care and Information Technology everyone! Look at the full edition of TrendWatch Weekly for more details.

Featured Charts… The Achilles Heel of Relative Trend Analysis™ (RTA)
In our new “featured charts” section, we discuss a situation where our trend and consistency values might (occasionally) lead you astray, if you blindly pick your stocks based on our numbers alone. That’s something we discourage anyway, but we want you to understand why some trend values will sometimes look unrealistically high. We use recent examples, and remind you that our RTA trend screener should be just one component of a do-it-yourselfer’s home trading system.

SYNOPSIS

By now, just about everyone knows about Bitcoin… the so-called “cryptocurrency” that is not bound to any country or economy. It is it’s own entity. Transactions are highly automated, yet it still fluctuates in value relative to other real currencies. There are some advantages to holding some Bitcoin, as you would hold cash or gold, in addition to your stocks and bonds. This week we review the recent rapid appreciation in the value of Bitcoin. Perhaps there’s room for some cryptocurrency in your portfolio. Look for more on this in our Featured Chart section.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) dropped just a point from last week to 67%. The S&P 500 APAR held steady at 20%, but the S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR fell dramatically to -11%.
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Last Week in the Indexes… The major Canadian indexes continue to trend lower. Among the US counterparts, Nasdaq continued to lose ground. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is now the trend leader among the seven major indexes that we track.

Seasonality… While our calendar effects expert keeps reminding us that we’re in the unfavourable six-month period for stocks (May-Oct), he is also good enough to point out the periods during the unfavourable period, when specific sectors and sub-sectors tend to outperform. Late June through mid-September are looking good for Biotech. More on that in the complete edition.

SYNOPSIS

It was a fairly mediocre week, until tech stocks sold off on Friday. But, taking all sectors into consideration, it was just a mediocre week! There were no obvious repercussions that one could associate with the British election, the Comey testimony, or the mixed bag of economic news last week.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) dropped to 68% from 86% a week earlier. Both the S&P 500 APAR and the TSX APAR fell three percentage points to the levels you see below.

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Last Week in the Indexes… The major Canadian indexes continue to trend lower. Among the US counterparts, Nasdaq took a major hit (specifically on Friday), and there was a rally in US small caps, represented by the Russell 2000. That index now leads our set of seven indexes on a trend basis.

Featured Chart… Information Technology Stock Sell-Off!

We continue with our newish “Featured Chart” segment, by looking at last Friday’s Information Technology stock sharp drop this past week. Is it temporary or the beginning of a bubble bursting, as happened at the end of the 90s? We share some thoughts.

So far, it’s definitely not enough to justify panic selling, even if June typically is the worst month of the year for Information Technology equities.

SYNOPSIS

This cartoon clearly illustrates that we would all do extremely well with time machines. But it also hints that static forecasts are pretty useless. Any analyst might say that the S&P 500 will be up by 6.2% by year end, or a particular stock will double in six months. If it happens, it’s totally coincidental; and you’ll easily find that no one gets anything even remotely correct with forecasts like that twice. But dynamic analysis is a different story. We know how fast stocks and indexes are rising right now; and we know from academic studies that stocks and indexes trending up will continue to do so… well above what would be expected by chance. Fool proof? No, but we don’t need to predict target prices and dates. We go with the flow and exit when the trend peters out. How simple is that?

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) rnudged up a couple percentage points to 86%. The S&P 500 APAR gained another 10% to 23%, while the TSX APAR finished only slightly higher from last week at 5%.

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Last Week in the Indexes… All of the US major indexes charged ahead again last week, while the Canadian indexes continued to fall. The S&P/TSX Composite Index managed a tiny gain, but the small cap indexes kept falling.

Investor Confidence… The May results for the State Street Investor Confidence Index were released this past week. The Global ICI increased to 102.5, up 5.1 points from April’s revised reading of 97.4. The improvement in sentiment was driven by an increase in the North American ICI from 95.1 to 104.1

As usual we chart the regional results as well in the full edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

Seasonality… We have a new 1-minute video from Brooke Thackray on the anticipated downside in Information Technology stocks during June. Tech stocks have been on a roll lately, but you might want to postpone any new purchases until the beginning of July.

SYNOPSIS

This cartoon captures so much of our perspective on what we call “BizTV” or the more inclusive “BizMedia”. It doesn’t matter what channel or online outlet. It’s all the same. They assume that the public need explanations, so they make stuff up on the fly for why the indexes are moving up or down. The cartoon caption says it all… they “have no @#&? clue”. If everyone ignored such fabrications, they would be harmless; but those investors who accept such explanations as credible may make money-losing mistakes in their regular trading decisions. They don’t deserve that!

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) ramped up some more to 84%. The S&P 500 APAR gained 12% to 13%, while the TSX APAR fell to 3% from 13% a week earlier..
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Last Week in the Indexes… Most of the 7 major indexes we track here were up at least +1% over the past week, although the S&P/TSX Composite Index and the S&P/TSX Small Cap Index suffered losses. Both of those indexes now have negative trend values.

PTA Premium Subscribers… ETF database re-worked

We revamped the ETF database during the past week… trimming all entries that haven’t traded in at least a month, and adding a whole bunch of new ones. Some are so new that we won’t have enough data to have stable trend & consistency vales for a month or two. After deletions and additions our ETF database is up 230 entries to 1688.