SYNOPSIS

Since we’re all do-it-yourself online traders, we don’t even talk to a broker, but this same cartoon applies to the media where talking heads and analyst guests are feeding us “all the bull we can bear”. Speaking of which, the major US stock indexes keep nudging against or through all time records, but should the media really be touting that? It only takes a fraction of a point increase in an index above a previous high to generate a new all-time high. How meaningful is that? Meanwhile on a broad market basis, we’re not seeing any cause for enthusiasm. By our broadest metrics of stock market performance (12,000+ stocks) about 70% of them are trending lower. By our unofficial perspective, this is almost as bearish as things ever get. Could there be a prompt rebound? Maybe, but what’s going to motivate that?

Day by Day… Both the S&P/TSX Composite Index and the S&P 500 fell last week, and this time both took a similar hit.

For instance, let us say a bike shop performs a retrofit and cialis levitra viagra http://icks.org/n/data/ijks/1482460790_add_file_2.pdf Bob, the cyclist, smilingly pedals away on his newly reconstructed machine feeling secure and pain-free – Life is good… or is it? Unfortunately, if Bob is one of many “flexion-addicted” Americans with a sedentary job that keeps him glued to the computer terminal day-after-day, gravitational exposure will eventually drag his body into. They are an ideal one for controlling tadalafil soft tablets http://www.icks.org/data/ijks/1482965794_add_file_5.pdf colds, digestion issues, stress and skin problems. This is not a shocker-if unhealthy bile is not treated, as they icks.org purchase viagra online suffer from lasting damage to the penile. Under cheap 25mg viagra normal circumstances, these behavioural tendencies are typically considered strengths. PTP… Our PTP APAR score declined again to reach 116% by the end of last week. Nonetheless, we’re continuing our winning streak of 24 consecutive weeks above our long term median of about 108. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR doubled its previous -9% score to -18%, while the S&P 500 APAR dropped to a barely positive +1%.

On the trading front we sold two more positions, while added one new one (a mistake in retrospect). More on that later.

PTA Perspective… 2018 – Q3 Review – Global Perspective
It’s time to have a global look at Q3 this week, using our favourite way to evaluate world-wide stock market performance — the MCSI index-based family of iShares ETFs from Blackrock. They simultaneously provide a measure of global index performance, but are available for purchase as well. And they’re all on a common scale of $USD.

SYNOPSIS

Yes, we’re ¾ of the way through 2018 already. NAFTA may finally be a done deal. And, the major US stock indexes keep nudging against or through all time records. We’re not talking major upside, but noticeable. It only takes a fraction of a point increase in an index above a previous high to generate a new all-time high. Meanwhile on a broad market basis, we’re not seeing much cause for enthusiasm… especially not among Canadian stocks that aren’t in the cannabis patch.

Day by Day… Both the S&P/TSX Composite Index and the S&P 500 fell last week, and as usual, Canadian stocks took the bigger hit by the close on Friday.

PTP… Our PTP APAR score declined again to reach 138% by the end of last week. Our previous report attributed a PTP decline to some happy profit-taking. It’s a different story this week, but we’re continuing our winning streak of 23 consecutive weeks above our long term median of about 110. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR fell 6 points to a more negative -9%, while the S&P 500 APAR dropped to 10% from 25% previously.

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On the trading front we sold two positions, and added two new ones. In one case we bought on Monday and sold the same position at a loss on Friday. That’s pretty rare, but it does happen from time to time.

Investor Confidence… The September 2018 results for the State Street Investor Confidence Index (SSICI) arrived last week. The Global Investor Confidence Index decreased to 88.3, down 5.7 points from August’s revised reading of 94.0. Most of this rather large monthly decline was institutional investors dumping North American stocks. We should take note of that!

As usual we provide more detail on the regional ICI’s in the complete Investor Confidence section of TrendWatch Weekly.

PTA Perspective… 2018 – Q3 Review – North America
It’s quarterly review time again, as we check out the year-to-date numbers and the current trends, as we head into the final quarter of the year. We may have some slow progress ahead through October, but November/December and into 2019 are generally a good time to be invested in stocks.

SYNOPSIS

Ever wonder what legalized pot will look like off the shelf in October (assuming your province has any stores open at that time)? This clip offers a sneak preview.

Pretty boring right? But it’’s clear that the government wants retailers to focus on the information on the labels for the time being, instead of having colourful sexy labels. We’re OK with that!

Day by Day… Both the S&P/TSX Composite Index and the S&P 500 had decent gains last week, and for a change the S&P/TSX Composite Index came out ahead.
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PTP… Our PTP APAR score declined sharply from 592% to 155% last week. We’ll explain what happened in the more detailed ProfiTrend Portfolio section. Meanwhile, the S&P/TSX Composite APAR is a little less negative, and the S&P 500 APAR gained a few more percentage points.

On the trading front we sold two positions, and didn’t replace them.

PTA Perspective… Canadian Cannabis Stocks: Q&A
The comments and questions about the imminent overturn of cannabis prohibition in Canada continue to roll in. So, with apologies to those who don’t want anything to do with pot stocks, we’re on that topic again this week, Q&A style. We’ll have something different for you next week. Send in suggestions for topics you’d like to see covered if you wish.

SYNOPSIS

Sorry, no cartoon this week. Harsh reality is setting in. We’ve reminded you many times that everyone is hurt by a trade war, but no one is hurt more than the instigator… in this case the US, or to name names, Donald Trump. The Great Depression started with a US-instigated trade war; and apparently, no one in the US has learned from that lesson or any of the others that followed. Many in the media have said it’s too early to see the repercussions this time around, but the US data above show that US farmers have 20% less income year-to-date than last year, thanks to the president they elected. Most US economists will tell you that a trade war is a tax on both US corporations and the US consumer. US consumers in particular don’t want to buy US goods. They’re far too inferior to imports in quality and more expensive. We breathe a sigh of relief that this hasn’t affected the US stock markets so far, but that is so inevitably coming.

Day by Day… While the S&P 500 stocks gained smoothly over the past week to yield a 1.2% gain, S&P/TSX Composite Index equities zig-zagged higher for a smaller gain of about 0.8%.

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PTP… Our PTP APAR score declined to 592% from nearly 700% the previous week. Meanwhile, the S&P/TSX Composite and S&P 500 APARs both retreated even more. The S&P/TSX Composite Index is now trending lower. The PTP is still well ahead of the 7 year average of roughly 100%.

We had a busier-than-usual week with 8 transactions… 3 sells, 3 buys, and a buy/sell combo (a stock swap due to an acquisition that involved share swapping).

PTA Perspective… Canadian Cannabis Stocks… Ramping up to October 17!
Last week we provided an update on the thematic cannabis industry in Canada (after all recreational legalization is coming soon). Last week we saw a few pot stock price pull-backs. Several PTA members had additional questions about last week’s coverage. We’re happy to provide answers in this week’s follow-up. At the same time we want to warn you of the risks and rewards of riding a rapidly advancing group of stocks. You can’t expect big daily and weekly gains to last forever, so you need to be ready with a finger on the Sell button at all times. The worst investor mistake ever is to try to stop a falling knife. We provide more detail in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

Yes, Trudeau has had his share of crap to deal with recently, so maybe he does need the stress-reducer that only pot can easily provide. Everything on his plate right now could have negative repercussions for the Canadian economy. But amazingly, it’s Canadians (cult environmentalists, judges blocking a very necessary pipeline, a premier with a bone to pick on carbon taxes), who are trying to make the Canadian economy fail. The retarded president south of the border doesn’t help matters! Many Canadians’ short-sightedness blinds them to the reality of job losses, a lower Canadian dollar and declining stock prices, while ignoring the fact that they are responsible for these results! Only pot stocks are saving the day for Canadian investors right now, thanks to the ailing Justin Trudeau. Smoke on buddy!

Day by Day… Interpretation is not required in this chart. The four-day trading week was a write-off, with exceptions that will be mentioned in the remainder of this week’s edition of `TrendWatch Weekly.

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PTP… Our PTP APAR score rose to almost 700% last week. Meanwhile, the S&P/TSX Composite and S&P 500 APARs both retreated even more. The S&P/TSX Composite Index is now trending lower.

Last week we sold three new positions and bought two new ones.

PTA Perspective… The Suddenly Re-Awakened Cannabis Market!
Yes, the very week after our last update on marijuana stocks in August, their prices took flight again. We didn’t predict it; it just happened. But, that’s the kind of “high” we can appreciate. Check out all the details in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

Pop quiz: Is Donald Trump (a) senile, (b) psychotic, (c) paranoid, (d) delusional, (e) dumb as a fence post, or (f) all of the above? Well, I do have a PhD in Psychology, and I’m going with “all of the above”. Thankfully, though, that doesn’t seem to matter to the stock markets. Investors assume that he’s too deranged to do any real harm (so far). Mind you the “smart money” (i.e. institutional investors) have been dumping North American equities in August, and moving into safer securities. Maybe they know something that we don’t? (More on that below.)

Day by Day… The S&P 500 had an adequate week with a 1% gain, while the S&P/TSX Composite Index drifted lower again with a fractional loss by Friday. No doubt, the cramped timeframe to resolve NAFTA issues may have played a role. Back to the bargaining table next Wednesday.

PTP… Our PTP APAR score gained a bunch more points from 369% last week. Meanwhile, the S&P/TSX Composite and S&P 500 APARs both retreated.

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Investor Confidence… The August 2018 results for the State Street Investor Confidence Index (SSICI) arrived last week. The Global Investor Confidence Index decreased to 94.3, down 7.4 points from July’s revised reading of 101.7. Most of this rather large monthly decline is institutional investors dumping North American stocks.

As usual we provide more detail on the regional ICI’s in the complete Investor Confidence section of TrendWatch Weekly.

PTA Perspective… Top-Down vs Bottom-Up Investing & Beta
While we prefer a top-down approach to investing, there’s no reason (with the right tactics) that you can’t be just as successful working bottom-up. One popular and generally available stock metric that can potentially improve your success rate either way is beta (β). If you’re new to the concept, we walk you through it; and this may be a worthwhile refresher for those who vaguely understand it, but don’t use it. We also make some useful comparisons with our own relative trend analysis™ (RTA) .

SYNOPSIS

Trump is blowing smoke again, literally! Let’s get those coal plants subsidized, so that Trump supporters will vote for him next time around… if they live that long, given the conditions of their lungs! At PTA we don’t associate ourselves with the “ethical investing” camp, since that simply limits our profit potential. And, we’ve made some wonderful profits in coal stocks a number of years ago. But that’s not going to happen this time. It’s not that solar and wind will prevail. They won’t. It’s too early, and tax payer subsidies are the only thing keeping some of these companies in business. But coal plant to natural gas conversions and nuclear are working just fine. Meanwhile, in countries like Canada, hydro-electric power is virtually free, except for building the infrastructure. Americans are sadly one of the few countries worldwide that still require a lot of coal-powered electricity. Electric cars are indirectly coal-fuelled cars in the US! Think about that as you cruise around in your Tesla in the US!

Day by Day… Once again a similar pattern over the week, but with bigger gains on the US side again.

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PTP… Our PTP APAR score gained some more points from 342% last week. Meanwhile, the S&P/TSX Composite and S&P 500 APARs barely moved.

There was no trading in the PTP last week. That should change this week, since we’re holding too much cash.

PTA Perspective… Is Money Flow Really a Thing?
It’s all about supply and demand, right. Money flows into a commodity/stock/other asset when supply is scare, and flows out when there is a surplus. But are the money flow measures that technical analysts use really tap into that? We are very sceptical about that, and we’ll tell you why.

SYNOPSIS

Stocks vs gold has been a no-brainer so far this year. But we’ll have a closer look in this week’s PTA Perspective… Is Gold’s Reputation Tarnished? Is it really plunging gold prices? Or is it the rising value of the US dollar? Or both. We’ll check it out.

Day by Day… We have similar zig-zags for this past week, but the S&P 500 ended higher, whereas the S&P/TSX Composite Index ended unchanged on the week.

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PTP… Our PTP APAR score pulled back from 367% last week. Meanwhile, the S&P/TSX Composite APAR added 3 points, and the S&P 500 APAR gained 9. The PTP score is still above its seven-year median (of about 100) for 17 consecutive weeks now.

There was no trading in the PTP last week.

SYNOPSIS

Trump’s un-winnable trade war continues, with the only victims so far being the people who voted for him, and perhaps Turkey. But winning a trade war with a small country who’s economy has already disintegrated, can hardly be called a victory. It’ll be a cheap time to visit Istanbul, if you’ve been meaning to take a vacation there.

Day by Day… Both markets closed the week lower, but with quite different trajectories. Keep in mind though, that Canadian markets were closed on Monday, hence an initial reading of 0.0% for Monday.

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PTP… Our PTP APAR score advanced 8 points over the week. Meanwhile, the S&P/TSX Composite APAR fell 8 points, as did the S&P 500 APAR. The PTP score has been above its seven-year median (of about 100) for 16 consecutive weeks now.

As for trading in the ProfiTrend Portfolio, we sold one holding, and added two new ones.

PTA Perspective… All Good News in the Pot Patch, but No Move in Stock Prices!
It’s been puzzling to us that every day brings positive news, views and statistics about the publicly-traded companies in the thematic marijuana market, yet stock prices have not been showing that so much, since the big run-up in fall 2017 and the first month or two of 2018. There have been ups and downs, but nothing near as dramatic as the up-ramp back then. We unravel that narrative this week, and look at some developments in the cannabis ETF space.

SYNOPSIS

It’s official! The world’s largest company is now worth in excess of $1,000,000,000,000.00… yep, a trillion dollars US! Even more amazing is that with a P/E of just 19, Apple Inc is one of the cheapest large tech stocks out there! Compare with Microsoft (P/E= 73), Google (P/E= 52), Amazon (P/E= 232) or Netflix (P/E= 234). The price/earnings ratio, as you should know, is how much investors are willing to pay per share for $1 of earnings. At an Amazon multiple, Apple would have a market cap of over $12 trillion.

Day by Day… After a week or two of disappointing performance in tech stocks, Apple provided a much needed boost to the Information Technology sector mid-week. That also drove stocks in general higher through weekend. While S&P 500 stocks started weaker last Monday, by Friday they were higher for the week than S&P/TSX Composite Index equities.

PTP… Our PTP APAR score advanced over the week. The S&P/TSX Composite APAR rose a couple points, as did the S&P 500 APAR. The PTP score has been above its seven-year median (of of about 100) for 15 consecutive weeks now.

As for trading in the ProfiTrend Portfolio, we sold we sold two holdings after sell signals.

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As usual we provide more detail on the regional ICI’s in the complete Investor Confidence section of TrendWatch Weekly.

PTA Perspective… Building Your Own Predictive Models for the Stock Markets
Relative trend analysis™ (RTA) has been designed in such a way that you don’t really need to forecast the future. You just go with the flow (the prevailing trends) until they end. But that doesn’t mean that you can’t experiment with other ways to make money… especially in times when there are relatively few solid trends to be found. Although the current market environment remains positive, it can’t hurt to plan for the future. Besides, do-it-yourself investors should always have some back-burner activities going. Reading about other strategies helps, but it’s definitely more fun to do some of your own research. In this updated edition of a piece I wrote several years ago, I offer some tips on building and testing investment models based solely on probability considerations. After all, the initial goal is predicting market direction. Everything else builds on that foundation.