SYNOPSIS

Sorry, kid… it’s not going to happen! The unprovoked trade fiasco that Trump unleashed on the world (not just China) can’t be won, and the American people are paying the price every step of the way. Even when he’s removed from office next year, it could take at least a decade to repair the damage he has done. It’s not like the world can pretend it didn’t happen and go back to the previously acceptable trade balance.

Last week… Both indexes were practically unchanged last week. At this point it’s difficult to imagine any significant change before year-end, up or down. In fairness though, if the year closed at current year-to-date levels, we would consider 2019 a good year in equities.

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PTP… With a bit of trading we managed to coax the PTP APAR a little higher, while each of the index APARs fell back 5 points each.

PTA Perspective… What happened to the Seasonal Natural Gas Trade This Year?
One of the simplest and most consistently profitable calendar trades historically is based on the assumption that winter is colder than summer. We need to heat our homes and demand for natural gas generally increases prices. You don’t have to be a futures trader to take advantage of this nowadays, because there are ETFs based specifically on that commodity. But the trade doesn’t appear to be working this year. We provide the evidence and speculate a bit on what went wrong in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.