Momentum Myths Dispelled

SYNOPSIS
There was a major rally in Canadian stocks last week, but it wasn’t large enough to raise the ranked trend values of our three Canadian indexes above the bottom of the chart. The S&P/TSX Small Cap Index actually gained 3% from a week earlier. The Nasdaq remains the trend leader.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… The annualized growth rate for the ProfiTrend Portfolio is now at +85%… still well above the comparable numbers for the S&P/TSX Composite Index (+22%) and the S&P 500 (+39%).

Seasonality… We continue our discussion of the US Thanksgiving trade, since this is the week to put it in place.
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State Street Investor Confidence Index… The latest results for November and the revised data for October have just been released. The November reading continues to favour stocks over lower risk assets. While the global index fell slightly, due to declines in the North American and Asian markets, institutional investors jumped right back into more European equities, after reducing their holdings in October. Apparently, they know something that we don’t. The European index is at an all-time high, since the publication of the SSICI indexes began. We’ve updated our chart and you’ll find more detail below.

Topic of the Week… Momentum Myths Dispelled
Our relative trend analysis™ (RTA) framework, as you know, falls within the realm of momentum investing. The simple premise is that “the trend is your friend”. In other words stocks with an established trend (up or down) are more likely to continue in the direction of the trend, then stocks without an established trend. We add to the old slogan “a consistent trend is less likely to end”. That is not to say that there are detractors to the momentum approach. There are many. This week we begin an examination of 10 challenges to momentum investing, and expose all of them as myths… using plenty of academic research and hard data to back this up.

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