What’s Up with the Smart Money?

SYNOPSIS

wpid-PastedGraphic-2020-11-29-13-53.png

Anyone getting bloated from too many all time highs in the major indexes? We’re not, especially since the broader market is participating. This isn’t just the mega-caps hoisting the indexes up as often happens.

Last week… Quite acceptable gains on both sides of the border this week.

wpid-MktIndexes201127s-2020-11-29-13-53.png

PTP… Portfolio repair is really a topic we should cover in more detail sometime, but you’ve been able to see from our PTP dip into the negative side in one recent week, that portfolio repair (especially from an almost empty one) takes a little time. We pick a few of the best trending stocks with a bit of extra scrutiny; but they don’t all shoot out of the gate at 0-100kph in 10 seconds. They sometimes need a little time to resume their momentum, if there has been a pause due to overall market conditions.

Anyway, we’re on our way again and also happy to see our benchmarks at levels we haven’t see in quite a while too.

wpid-bar_speedo_201127s-2020-11-29-13-53.png

PTA Perspective… What’s Up with the Smart Money?
We used to report the State Street Investor Confidence Index every month just after it was released. It’s a measure of money moved by large institutional investors between stocks (riskier) and bonds (super-safe). We don’t publish it monthly anymore (for reasons we’ll get into), but it’s worth having a look now and then. The “smart money” still appears pretty dumb in 2020. More in this edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

The Bold Boom in Electrical Vehicles!

SYNOPSIS

wpid-PastedGraphic1-2020-11-22-13-57.png

This is another trick that financial advisors or money managers will do. They’ll buy an ETF for your account and charge you a fee beyond the MER already being charged, if you bought it yourself. That’s better than letting them pick stocks for you, but it’s a guarantee of mediocre performance. Yes, the “best stock” is in there, but as a do-it-yourself investor, you’ll know which one that is by following the momentum stats for the stocks in the ETF’s index!

Last week… Up in Canada, a little down in the US. Not a whole lot to be concerned or excited about.

wpid-MktIndexes201120s-2020-11-22-13-57.png

PTP… OK, after a somewhat embarrassing minus number (-108%) on the PTP APAR last time, I assured you that such problems with a portfolio with almost no stocks left in it, would likely rebound fairly quickly with some new purchases of stocks with attractive trends. Well, we haven’t blown past our benchmarks yet (which are actually pretty good right now in terms of their usual performance), but we’re on our way. As we wrap this up on Tuesday, the PTP APAR is up to 260%.

wpid-bar_speedo_201120-2020-11-22-13-57.png

PTA Perspective… The Bold Boom in Electrical Vehicles!
In July we shared a look at another thematic sector… Transportation as a Service (TaaS). It’s a broad category including UBER and Lyft and food delivery and electric cars (EVs) and self-driving vehicles and charging stations and batteries. We have another look in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly… still mainly focussing on EVs. Tesla may be the media darling with their stock price, but others are performing much better on a trend basis.

Another Green Gold Rush for Cannabis Stocks?

SYNOPSIS

wpid-PastedGraphic-2020-11-15-13-50.png

A couple weeks back I introduced you to a highly reliable predictor of the outcome of US elections. It’s been 87% accurate going back to 1928. And, it’s based simply on the performance of the S&P 500 during the three months leading up to election day. Well, I’m pleased to say that it was wrong this time! It was not in the cards for Trump to win; and if he’s planning to sue everyone who voted for Biden, I hope the US taxpayers aren’t going to be paying his legal bills!

Last week… More gains this past week, but not up to the stellar weekly improvement of the week that preceded it. Still, 2%+ is quite acceptable.

wpid-MktIndexes201113s-2020-11-15-13-50.png

PTP… The APARs for both S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 each more than doubled over past week. Our PTP, sadly, went the opposite direction. We gave you a heads-up about this possibility in our last edition. When you’re rebuilding a portfolio practically from nothing, very small price changes can produce very large annualized changes… large losses in fact if those small changes are negative. More details of course in the expanded version of this week’s TrendWatch Weekly.wpid-bar_speedo_201113s-2020-11-15-13-50.png
PTA Perspective… Another Green Gold Rush for Cannabis Stocks?
We’ll take a look at another of our thematic sectors — cannabis stocks — this week. Members already have access to regular weekly updates, but the cannabis group has been down so long, that you may not have noticed the uptick that has happened over the past two weeks. We’ll point out the key changes that we’ve observed and what they might mean going forward. HINT: With five more US states having legalized in one form or another in the latest election, the legal market size keeps growing.

So, What About Those Covid-19 Stocks?

SYNOPSIS

wpid-PastedGraphic-2020-11-8-13-51.png

 

Yes, both! There’s a good reason that 85% of funds (excluding passive index ETFs) fail to even keep up with the most appropriate index to compare them to. The answer is both “inept” and “dumb”. And by letting a financial advisor pick the funds, you’d be multiplying your “inept” and “dumb” losses. Simple probability… .15 X .15 = .0225. Yes, 98% likelihood that you will lose relative to the market averages. Keep doing your homework, and stay ahead of the markets!

Last week… Almost the polar opposite of the previous week. Sharp gains… confirming well established data that show that US elections have no impact on the markets whatsoever. But everyone in the media will make up stories anyway every day.

wpid-MktIndexes201106s-2020-11-8-13-51.png

PTP… The APARs for both S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 swung from negative to positive again last week. Our PTP, while accurate, is computed from simply buying two new stocks to double our count from 2 to 4. By Friday’s close, the results could have just as easily been negative, instead of doubling from the previous week. We’re far more comfortable in our PTP APAR stability, when we have closer to 10 stocks, or at least longer holding times with a smaller number.wpid-bar_speedo_201106s-2020-11-8-13-51.png
PTA Perspective… So, What About Those Covid-19 Stocks?
We’re having another look at our Covid-19 database in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly. The list contains companies working on vaccines, treatments and testing. There was a lot of enthusiasm and rapid stock gains from the beginning. But ironically the closer these companies come to bringing product to market the less interest there is among investors.

Can the Stock Market Really Predict US Election Outcomes?

SYNOPSIS

wpid-PastedGraphic-2020-11-3-19-21.png

 

Last week certainly delivered Halloween horrors in the markets. Our PTP felt them too. But we remind you that VIX is not a real measure of volatility. It’s a measure of how people are reacting to sharp downturns in the markets by buying put options to reduce their losses. It’s like buying fire insurance, when your house is already on fire! The premiums are high! But with a standard regime of using appropriate sell points for what you are holding, the damage last week should have been reduced from what it could have been. We can’t emphasize enough that your sell plan is more important than your buy decisions.

Last week… Major one-week losses. What more can we say?

wpid-MktIndexes201030s-2020-11-3-19-21.png

PTP… The APARs for both S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 were (as expected) influenced by major one-week losses across the board. Both have flipped negative again. Our PTP looks healthy, but our APAR was chopped almost in half. But that’s still above our almost 10-year average of 125%.wpid-bar_speedo_201030s-2020-11-3-19-21.png
PTA Perspective… Can the Stock Market Really Predict US Election Outcomes?
This is something the US or Canadian TV media don’t want you to know, because they’ll lose so much ad revenue if you don’t watch their shit all evening Tuesday. There’s a predictor of US election outcomes that is almost 90% accurate, so you know the results at 4pm election day, when the S&P 500 closes. You’ll find the winner, the magic formula and the data behind it in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.