SYNOPSIS

The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) has been a cornerstone of financial economics for decades. It assumes that stock (or any other) prices immediately incorporate all available knowledge that could contribute to prices all the time. Consequently, EMH says that no one can ever “beat the market” for very long. Some of us with fattening portfolios well above the market averages would beg to differ!

Anyway, as the cartoon depicts, there are also some radical exceptions to EMH like market crashes, and many of those can be explained by behavioural economists… psychologists who have argued that EMH depends on the assumption that investors are 100% rational all the time. That assumption, of course, is ridiculous (to psychologists anyway)! EMH couldn’t explain any stock market crash like the one in Feb/March this year, since there was no new widely disseminated information that would explain the plunging prices. There was no efficiency there!

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PTP… The APARs for both S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 are now negative… not a good sign. Meanwhile, even with just three stocks left, our PTP APAR is still a respectable 329%… still well about the long-term average.

PTA Perspective… Top Year-to-Date ETF Performances
Continuing with last week’s theme, this time we had a look at the best performing ETFs year-to-date. Yes, it’s looking back, when we should be looking forward, but there’s confirmation there for the trends that we talked about months ago, that led up to those gains.

SYNOPSIS

If you think that you can succeed as an investor/trader without data and some math to glue the data together, you might as well just watch BizTV “analysts”, who have neither data nor any math/stat skills behind them… just opinions and enough salesmanship to promote their employer’s products. Only do-it-yourself traders and investors know what’s really going on!

Last week… No upside again this week, but the damage wasn’t too bad. The TSX remained relatively unchanged again, and the S&P500 dropped just 0.6%.
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PTP… Contrary to the simple one-week moves above on the indexes, the APARs of both S&P 500 and TSX rose. The TSX score doubled and the S&P APAR moved up 4 points. Meanwhile our PTP score shifted up about 20 points. Remember that these data are based on equally weighting all constituent stock price moves. That can often be quite different from the market cap weighted indexes, where a small number of very large market cap constituents can essentially move the markets (misleadingly)

PTA Perspective… Top Year-to-Date Stock Performances for TSX and S&P
We tend to be traders looking through the windshield, not the rear-view mirror, but occasionally it’s interesting to look back on changes relative to a fixed past date. We do that with major indexes and sector indexes on a quarterly basis, but we tend to skip over the individual stock stars that boosted those indexes higher. We know you can’t change the past, but maybe you can verify that the approach you’re taking for buying and selling individual equities has paid off. More details in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

Smiling or not, volatility is never a reason for concern, unless you use VIX (“the Fear Index”) as your measure. Real volatility swings both ways. Rapidly accelerating stock prices increase real volatility just as much as price declines. The VIX creator had the best of intentions in mind, but neglected to realize the growing pool of research results in behavioural economics. People are far more scared of losses than they are euphoric about gains. So even though VIX calculations include both Call (optimistic) Options and Put (pessimistic) Options, traders buy Puts far more often than Calls… especially after the markets sell-off sharply. So, VIX is a “fear-gauge”; but that’s not what it was intended to be. Meanwhile, real volatility can be a close friend. Recognize the difference between the evil and the smile!

Last week… No upside last week. The TSX remained relatively unchanged, but the S&P500 dropped 2.5%.
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PTP… Well, it’s been two weeks since our last edition, so we’ve lost some of that week-over-week continuity. The TSX and S&P500 APARs have dropped about 75%, while our PTP has roughly been cut in half.

PTA Perspective… Are You Ready to Invest in Psychedelics Companies?
In recent years we’ve been so successful with finding niche thematic sectors (as opposed to our standard top-down approach), that we’re constantly looking for the next big wave to surf! Not all, of course, will suddenly create a splash, especially when the number of participants is small, but it can’t hurt to begin a list and track trends. Our latest is Psychedelics! Yes, the mind-altering drugs some of us remember from the 60s and 70s… LSD, Magic Mushrooms, MDMA. The medical benefits of some of these are currently under approved drug trials now… for depression, ADHD, PTSD, addiction, and other mental health conditions, plus weight loss. Possibly a bit early, but we’re telling you more about potential opportunities in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.