SYNOPSIS

As you watch or read about the general markets these days, you might conclude that “Mr. Market” is bullish. After all, the major indexes are bumping against or nudging through the previous day’s record highs. But then you have to realize that there are a half-dozen mega-cap tech stocks moving the market cap weighted indexes higher. Still, as we’ll show you today, even the broader markets are doing fine. We’re not really at “Bat Shit Crazy” yet!

Last week… Another up week for our two main benchmarks. We’ve returned to a balanced zero-centred chart style for this one. If you keep past issues around, this will make visual comparisons easier. One-week moves rarely exceed 5%. (If that happens we’ll do a temporary extension.)
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PTP… This scale for this chart has to stay floating, since the moves for the PTP can be quite extreme. The PTP APAR has been as high as 1380% over the past 500 weeks and as low as -292%. Our median is 125%. Negative readings are extremely rare, since normally we sell everything before that happens. Over this past week we’ve lost about 100 points on the PTP, but our benchmarks rose. +1% for TSX and +20% for S&P.

PTA Perspective…Dow Jones Industrial Average: What a Quaint Old Index! Should It Be Retired?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average really shouldn’t exist anymore, but there it is, every day, often taken more seriously than the S&P 500 by the media. We have a look at this crazy phenomenon in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly, especially since there have been some recent adjustments to the DJIA’s 30-stock component list.

SYNOPSIS

Isn’t this the way that 99% of “analysts” on BizTV come across to you, as the media monkeys interview them? You don’t need to have any credentials to be an “analyst”. You may not even need a high school diploma. You just need to “fling some poo” and call it “good advice for long-term investors”. Be your own analyst. You won’t regret it!

Last week… This chart is almost identical to the previous one. We had a fourth week in a row of gains for the S&P on a one-week basis. The past two weeks have been as close to unchanged as you can get for the TSX.
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PTP… The S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index APARs actually dropped quite a bit week-over-week. Meanwhile, our PTP APAR added another 120 points. We’re OK with that!

PTA Perspective… Update on Covid-19 Companies
Last week we talked about upcoming changes to the PTA member web site, and what you might expect soon. “Soon” is a relative term of course, because these transitions take time. Meanwhile, we thought you might be interested in what’s happening with the Covid-19 companies that we introduced you to in late June, with an update in the third week of July. The size of the APAR for the PTP is considerably due to investments in that thematic sector. But it’s really high-risk, so you have to be nimble with your trading. As usual we warn that buy/hold would be the stupidest thing you could do. Lots more detail in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

Sad, but true! Not just your son or daughter, but their kids and grandkids too. The pandemic has given politicians the option to spend insanely, while getting credit for doing so by citizens. It’s a big vote grab as usual. If you ever want a quick real-time reminder, have a look at The US Debt Clock. And, don’t just look at the soon-to-be $30 trillion in debt. Look at the Unfunded Liabilities near bottom-right… closing in on $155 trillion! Debt is money owed now. Unfunded Liabilities is money owed in the future. Yes, money that will be required to support US citizens with what we call CPP (Canada Pension Plan) and OAS (Old Age Security) in Canada among other things. It’s money that’s supposed to be available when the time comes, but it’s not considered debt right now. But it is future debt! Google around a bit with a “debt clock” search and you’ll find the same sort of debt clock for other countries. They’ll be scary too, but not as bad as what the US is currently shrugging off.

Last week… We had a third week in a row of gains on a one-week basis… mostly tiny or almost non-existent (in the case of TSX).

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PTP… The S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index APARs were virtually unchanged week-over-week. Meanwhile, our PTP APAR rose to over 700. We’re OK with that!

PTA Perspective… Pending PTA Web Site Changes… Feedback Welcome!
The previous weekend’s computer software glitches have sensitized us to having backups, not just of our data files (which has always been the case), but also preserving older copies of software as well on older hardware. Upgrades tend to focus on new features, not on previously reliable features that have been removed. The incident has also prompted us to rethink the formats and content of the Data & Charts Workbooks. We believe that more info can be provided in more compact formats, so we’ll be redesigning some of the workbooks. That is this week’s Perspective topic in TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

Trump should be quite happy about the reduced value of the US dollar recently. It makes it cheaper for those outside the country to buy US goods, and more expensive for US consumers to buy foreign goods. He prefers to ignore the fact that it also shows a lack of confidence in the US economy.

Last week… We had a second week in a row of gains on a one-week basis. There is still an appetite for equities and many other assets for that matter.
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PTP… The S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index APARs had some nice gains of about 20 points or so. Meanwhile, our PTP APAR rose over 100 points.

PTA Perspective… Currency Commentary
This week we discuss currency fluctuations (i.e. exchange rates). Most people ignore them, unless they’re travelling and need foreign cash when they arrive. They don’t want to be gouged by the banks and credit card companies. Also, in some cases it may even affect the timing of foreign vacations… not that there are too many of those happening right now. We’re more concerned about the implications, when it comes to investing in stocks and other assets outside your own national borders.

SYNOPSIS

Yes, even the bull should be scared given the economic collapse that is happening. But should we be too? Well, we observe trends and follow them… we don’t and probably shouldn’t even try to explain them. The trends are still to the upside in the stock markets, so we’ll keep riding that wave until it ends.

Last week… We bounced back from the previous week’s decline to erase the earlier losses and still gain some extra.

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PTP… The S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index APARs declined a little, while our PTP APAR held fairly steady week-over-week.

PTA Perspective… Cannabis Sector Update: Summer 2020
This week we decided to have a closer look at the cannabis thematic sector once again, with very low expectations. But we did come up with some amazingly positive surprises. We’ll share those with you in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.