SYNOPSIS

With record unemployment, the global economy on the brink of recession due to draconian pandemic lockdowns, and Trump attempting to escalate tensions with China, it’s difficult to imagine what is driving the stock markets higher. Accommodative central bank policies (i.e. negative interest rates when adjusted for inflation) and government bailouts certainly help, but they can’t go on indefinitely. So the remaining possible reason for rising stock prices is FOMO (fear of missing out). With a rebound that practically rules out the “dead cat bounce” thesis, new investor money is allegedly rushing in so as to capture any remaining returns as markets push up toward previous highs.

Last week… This past week’s 5-day performance (4-days in the US) was pretty positive, as was the previous week.
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PTP… The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR was close to unchanged at 76%, but the S&P 500 score rose from 42% to 79%. Meanwhile our incremental portfolio repair tactics doubled our PTP APAR to 1093%. As we’ve mentioned before, restarting from 100% cash almost always results in some wild fluctuations due to very short holding times initially. The fluctuations tend to normalize somewhat as the portfolio grows in holdings and buy-dates become more staggered.

PTA Perspective… New Bull Staying Power?
This week we offset last week’s discussion of the major indexes being too top-heavy with large tech stocks, with some other evidence that we’re seeing more breadth in the market. But to see breadth you have to look at numbers that are more equally weighted across all stocks. We know how to do that.

SYNOPSIS

This definition is, unfortunately, all too accurate! Investors will buy a stock, watch it fall, and claim that it was a long-term investment in the first place. You have to wait. It’ll go up eventually! The stock-picking analysts you see interviewed on TV are exactly the same… “we’re not into this for short-term returns, just the long-term.” That’s how they explain away dozens, even hundreds of losses. Amazingly, they keep their jobs, and get interviewed over and over again! And then, yes, if they do have short-term gains, they sell them right away, instead of waiting for long-term gains! We know better, of course, but it’s amusing to see this losers scenario replay indefinitely!

Last week… This past week’s 5-day performance (4-days in Canada) was pretty positive. The previous week’s sell off was pretty much offset by new gains.

It is a viable sildenafil citrate alternative to cheap viagra canada, has gained worldwide popularity over the years. On the other hand, when any individual weighs more than 20% male people with increase in age. levitra properien Some of them include: Exercise regularly Quit smoking Maintaining healthy weight Consuming healthy diet Limit or quit alcohol consumption Reduce taking stress Treat anxiety or depression-like condition Discontinue consumption of medicine with harmful side effects Practice regular check-ups along with a primary care physician for monitoring blood sugar, blood pressure, icks.org order viagra and cholesterol levels Reduces stress Promotes relaxation Treats diabetes Manages sexual dysfunction in men. We suggest you approach this as a savvy consumer. viagra cost in canada PTP… All APARs had impressive gains last week. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR jumped from 26% to 75% and the S&P 500 score went from a -7% to +42%. Meanwhile our portfolio repair tactics took the PTP APAR to 468%. As we’ve mentioned before, restarting from 100% cash results in wild APAR scores initially since annualized scores from weekly price changes on a tiny number of stocks can be very large. After 3 buys and 1 sell last week, we have a nice gain on 4 holdings over a very short period of time. We tolerate this short-term fluctuation, since we know that as new acquisitions come in staggered over time, our APAR number will stabilize.

PTA Perspective… Indexes vs Reality
A number of analysts have coincidentally discovered that just five Information Technology companies are pretty much determining the movements of the major US indexes… DJI, S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Such is the nature of capitalization-weighted equities indexes. They totally obscure what’s happening in the broader markets. More in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

Only the ignorant seem to think that “flattening the curve” for C19 actually reduces the overall number of cases or deaths. It may reduce the peak demand for hospital services, but it will just extend the pandemic from months to potentially years. The extra cases just get pushed out in time. Elementary statistics! The flatter the curve, the longer the time until it’s over. Meanwhile, flattening “the disease curve” steepens “the economic damage curve”… whether you measure that in bankrupt businesses, government debt, the depth and length of the upcoming recession, etc. People will die from the economic damage too. No one seems to be willing to discuss that.

Last week… This past week’s 5-day performance of these indexes shows the opposite of the previous week’s results. Mind you the previous week’s gains were a little bigger than this week’s losses.

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PTP… While the S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR declined from 62% the previous week to 26% over the course of last week, the S&P 500 APAR actually turned negative (from a +48% in our last report). Meanwhile, we jumped into portfolio repair mode last week as we told you last time. We simply had to eliminate one position that we jumped into too early and held too long after our sell-signal. Another example of departing from our normally disciplined PTA approach, because the fundamentals looked too good to be true. It turns out they were too good to be true! Anyway, we’re back on the plus-side, but are now holding just two stocks. While the major indexes may still be climbing most weeks now, They’re top-heavy with tech stocks with enormous market caps. So the bulk of the constituents in say the S&P or S&P/TSX Composite Index are barely contributing to the overall index.

PTA Perspective… Sell in May and Go Away: 2020 Edition
A conversation that often comes up in the media every year in April is the “Sell in May” effect. Long-term data suggest that you could be far better off only investing in equities from November to the end of April every year. Then you could sell everything and take a six-month vacation. But even though the historical data still support that perspective in general, we show you the flaws in the argument, and the opportunities you’d be missing with that naive approach in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

This cartoon is accurate and amusing as far is it goes, but it doesn’t go far enough. Zero percent is better than -80%! And almost none of those active fund managers in the 20% have ever done it two years in a row. So, it was dumb luck! But, if you don’t want to be a stock picker and regular trader as we are, passive ETFs on something like the S&P 500 are the way to go, with an average annual return of 10-12% (that’s average… don’t expect that every year, but you’ll have many 12%+ years too like 2019).

Last week… On a one-week basis you can see that both major indexes performed well last week.
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PTP… S&P/TSX Composite and S&P 500 APAR continued higher. (Remember that this is an annualized version of weekly trend.) However, as we warned you earlier our PTP APAR could have (and did) take a big swing lower. It’s part of the rebuilding process as we start from Ground Zero. We added one more position (prematurely, now that we think about it) and it promptly reversed its trajectory. We’d have a +130% APAR if we hadn’t made that mistake! Still, we want you to know that everyone experiences a few problems from time to time. The key is to resolve those problems as quickly as possible! That is our goal for this week. Portfolio Repair!

PTA Perspective… V-Bottom or Dead Cat Bounce? Always a Tough Call!
So much is wrong about the rebound in equities after the catastrophic collapse we’ve seen recently. Too much rebound, too fast. This week we look into that a little more, but don’t come to any major conclusions one way or another. There’s simply nothing justifying the recent market rally, other than the fact that stocks fell too far too fast.

SYNOPSIS

It’s definitely bizarre times right now, so unusual tactics are called for. Unfortunately, stupid tactics result in highly destructive results. Throwing money at the biggest corporations and some token amount to citizens is not a solution. Try throwing money at medical research to solve this pandemic. There’s precious little evidence that this is happening at all.

Last week… On the one-week basis that you see in this chart, Canadian stocks were favoured once again.
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PTP… S&P/TSX Composite APAR jumped from 13% the previous week to 56%! (Remember that this is an annualized version of weekly trend.) Meanwhile, S&P 500 APAR only inched up from 10% to 14%.

As usual, when shifting from 100% cash into building a new portfolio, who knows what the first few days will be like. We were lucky in a way. We bought shares in two companies. One stock rose a few cents by week-end, one fell a few cents. The net result: a PTP APAR of -37%. It could have been equally likely, and equally meaningless that the PTP APAR could have been -1000% or +1000%. Nonetheless, we still stand by a common metric like this, since once you have 5-10 or more holdings spread out over various acquisition dates, the APAR calculation quickly becomes meaningful. S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index APARs always have large numbers of holdings, so that’s never a problem.

PTA Perspective… Investor Confidence: What Are The “Smart Money” Investors Up To?
The short answer is that they are still in hiding. They totally missed the excellent return from equities in 2019, and are cowering even more in 2020. We use the State Street Investor Confidence Index (SSICI) to follow the so-called “smart money”. This isn’t an investor poll (“How confident are you in buying stocks?” Etc). State Street follows actual money flows of pension funds and other institutions with billions to invest. They provide an SSICI score to represent whether these funds are investing in risky assets (stocks) or safer assets (typically bonds). Their numbers should be reliable, give that we’re talking about $31+ trillion in assets. After reviewing the data we conclude once again that the “smart money” doesn’t appear to be very smart at all!