SYNOPSIS

Yes, the price of crude oil went negative last week, at least in terms of the near-term futures contract. Follow that through the refinement phase and you do get gas stations paying you to fill up. That’s not too likely in real life, but it’s fun to think about! Before that would happen, gas stations would probably replace gasoline with hand sanitizer… far more profitable!

Last week… With a great week followed by a pretty good week, it shouldn’t be surprising that things might slow down. The S&P 500 lost some ground and the S&P/TSX Composite Index managed a small gain.
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PTP… You can see that we’re still 100% in cash. We’re not avoiding volatility (which we welcome). We’re avoiding too many kinds of risk. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR lost 3 points, while the S&P 500 APAR pulled back 21.

PTA Perspective… Profiting from Free Oil!
Last Monday, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil dropped to $0.00 per barrel. But it didn’t stop there! Before the session closed WTI was priced at -$37.63 per barrel. That’s what producers would have to pay someone to take it away. It didn’t stay there during the rest of the week, but we’re at a point of unbelievably low oil prices, as demand has dried up, and various OPEC & Friends countries are refusing to cut production. This week we bring you some thoughts on whether you can profit from this.

SYNOPSIS

Ah, yes, the myth that diversification is the path to investing success! That’s only true if you’re referring to the success of your financial advisor or money/wealth manager. Broad-based buy & hold diversification is a sure path to failure, relative to consistent rotation through the best-performing regions and sectors. You can call that sequential diversification, if it makes you feel any better!

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PTP… This chart didn’t change much from the one we showed you last week. We’re still 100% in cash, and will stay that way for a while. We’re not avoiding volatility (which we normally welcome). We’re avoiding too many layers of risk.

PTA Perspective… 2020 – Q1 Review – Global Perspective
After rolling out the Q1 2020 report card for North American stocks recently, it’s time to follow-up with a global perspective in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly after a one-week postponement. We use two datasets to measure global equities performance: country ETFs and ADRs. Both are indirect ways to assess the worldwide situation, because Americans aren’t allowed to buy foreign stocks or ETFs on exchanges located outside the USA. Canadians have many more options, but we’ll keep it to the lowest common denominator. I think we all know that the results will be a poor Q1 2020 across the board, but we bring you all the details in this week’s edition.

SYNOPSIS

Yeah! Watching business news on TV can kill ya! So much misinformation, but we need something right? The print format of business news via Yahoo! Finance or similar platforms and newspapers isn’t much better, but they will occasionally pull in official documents from a company’s press releases or official regulatory filings. That’s no assurance of accuracy, but it’s better than some journalist, blogger or analyst pulling info out of his or her derriere! For the most part we try to stick with simple verifiable numbers. We’ll push them around and massage them and come to our own conclusions.

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PTP… You know we made our exit the previous week into 100% cash. But we see this past week that our standard benchmarks actually flipped into positive territory from values below -100% last time.

PTA Perspective… 2020 – Q1 Review – Global Perspective – DELAYED!
After rolling out the Q1 2020 report card for North American stocks last week, it’s time to follow-up with a global perspective in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly. And, yes, the results are awful! But we’re delaying the details until the next edition. The long weekend should have allowed more time, but it didn’t work out that way. As usual though, all of the Data & Charts Workbooks have been updated over the weekend. Those are the numbers you need to trade. You’ll usually find the latest calculations on Saturday, but sometimes Sunday. It’s the commentary portion that sometimes slows us down.

SYNOPSIS

A common mistake to be sure. At zero your price is still zero, no matter what you paid for earlier shares. And stocks do go to zero from time to time! Cut your losses and move on, before they become even bigger losses!

Last week… The previous week’s Dead Cat Bounce had no follow-through this past week. Offsetting gains and losses in our two benchmarks.

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PTP… Well, we did warn you that our PTP Portfolio might be empty by the time we published this edition of TrendWatch Weekly. It has to be worrisome that if current trends persisted for a year, you’d lose more than everything (which would be 100%). The big question is how long this sharp downward trend can persist. I think we all know that the S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index will not go to zero, let alone lower than that. But when will see some plus signs again?

PTA Perspective… 2020 – Q1 Review – North America
While technically there were another two days of trading in Q1 2020, we’re declaring last Friday our cutoff to get on with our Q1 progress report. I think we all know that the results are pretty ugly! As with prior quarterly reports, we start with the North American results, and will follow-up with a global perspective in the next edition of TrendWatch Weekly.