SYNOPSIS

This cartoon captures nicely how much a money manager or financial advisor cares about your investment returns! He’s only interested in his own compensation. Depending on the firm you rely on, 2% + 20% isn’t unusual. Smaller operations take less; so-called “established” money managers take more. And, yes, for those unfamiliar with the percentages, your money manager charges 2% of the capital you are investing with him up front, and takes 20% of your profits (if any). And no, the up-front fee is not refundable if he shrinks your original investment, and he’s certainly not going to cover your losses, if he fails to make your nest egg grow. Yet another reason for you to be fully in control of your financial destiny!

Last week… The shortened Xmas week is rarely one of big swings in stock prices. In fact trading activity practically dries up altogether. At very least we’re not ending the year as we did 2018 with a horrendous Q4.

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PTP… We managed another jump in the PTP APAR over the past week (from 390% in our last report). Meanwhile, the TSX APAR gained 6 points, while the S&P dropped 4.

PTA Perspective… 2019 – Q4 (Year End) Review – North America
While technically there is another two days of trading in 2019, we’re declaring last Friday the end of 2019 to get on with our year-end progress report, based on the overall market and sector indexes that we track weekly from our trend perspective. As with prior quarterly reports, we start with the North American results, and will follow-on with a global perspective in the next edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

It seems that the bulls (like us) may not have a grasp on reality when the media and the analysts they interview are all saying that this is the longest bull market in history… and should continue! A bear market is signalled by a 20% drop from recent highs. That actually has happened numerous times worldwide since 2009 (including Nasdaq and the S&P/TSX Composite Index as just two examples). The media ignored those to keep the 10-year bull-run myth alive. So who is it that doesn’t have a grip on reality? For our purposes, we’ll just go with the flow, and exit systematically before the media figure out that a bear has bitten them on the ass.

Last week… For the last full trading week of 2019, the results are positive. The S&P 500 took the lead as it often does. Whether you want to call this a Santa Claus Rally or not is up to you. At least we’re not ending the year as we did in 2018 after a horrendous Q4, which bottomed on December 24.

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PTP… We managed another surge in the PTP APAR over the past week, while each of the index APARs gained 8-10 points.

PTA Perspective… Season’s Greetings!
We’re keeping the Perspective section short this week. A few comments on inflation and what it means to you, with emphasis on Stats Canada’s latest economic report. Also, a recap of the key elements of using your ProfiTrend Advantage Membership to maximize your trading returns. But look forward to an extra long PTA Perspective next time as we start to bring you the Q4/Full 2019 Review. That will stretch out over 2-3 weeks of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

Not even the best of investors can shake the emotional aspects of trading entirely, so it’s to be expected for a novice for sure! That’s why we continuously recommend a rules-based approach to all buy/sell decisions. It reduces stress and leaves only positive emotions, such as when you celebrate yet another profitable year!

Last week… While the S&P performed better than the S&P/TSX Composite Index last week, there really seems to be a lack of enthusiasm in the markets in general as we wrap up another year. Still, with +18% year-to-date for the S&P/TSX Composite Index and +25% for S&P 500, that means that your own returns should be much higher. Something to celebrate!
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PTP… We managed another surge in the PTP APAR over the past week, while each of the index APARs were almost unchanged.

PTA Perspective… ETF Update
While we prefer a nimble trend-based stock-picking strategy to maximize profits, we recognize that ETFs can provide greater diversity and stability, especially for those who have less time to monitor their portfolios regularly. This week we bring you a top-level update on the state of the ETF industry and discuss how ETFs are finally displacing profit-limiting mutual funds. Learn more in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

Sorry, kid… it’s not going to happen! The unprovoked trade fiasco that Trump unleashed on the world (not just China) can’t be won, and the American people are paying the price every step of the way. Even when he’s removed from office next year, it could take at least a decade to repair the damage he has done. It’s not like the world can pretend it didn’t happen and go back to the previously acceptable trade balance.

Last week… Both indexes were practically unchanged last week. At this point it’s difficult to imagine any significant change before year-end, up or down. In fairness though, if the year closed at current year-to-date levels, we would consider 2019 a good year in equities.

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PTP… With a bit of trading we managed to coax the PTP APAR a little higher, while each of the index APARs fell back 5 points each.

PTA Perspective… What happened to the Seasonal Natural Gas Trade This Year?
One of the simplest and most consistently profitable calendar trades historically is based on the assumption that winter is colder than summer. We need to heat our homes and demand for natural gas generally increases prices. You don’t have to be a futures trader to take advantage of this nowadays, because there are ETFs based specifically on that commodity. But the trade doesn’t appear to be working this year. We provide the evidence and speculate a bit on what went wrong in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

This cartoon is a great reminder of a number of valuable points that we repeat often. The economist’s fallacy only applies to buy-hold investors, who always underperform the general markets and especially underperform the flexible do-it-yourself trader. The counter perspective is that if you cut your losses early and let your profits run indefinitely, you can afford to be wrong very often and still retire with far more profits than the complacent buy-hold practitioner.

Last week… Both indexes had modest one-week gains this past week, although US stocks were favoured.

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The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR gained 3 points and the S&P 500 APAR was up 8 from the previous week. We managed to bump the PTP APAR up from 47% to 159% by dropping one loser on a sell-signal and adding three new holdings. That’s pretty decent given the circumstances.

PTA Perspective… Why Everyone Should Keep an Eye on Apple (AAPL)
Although Apple (AAPL) is the biggest company in the world by market cap, the implications don’t always register with investors. This week we explore some of those implications. Is it possible that Apple’s share price moves precede (and even predict) the moves of the overall equities market? Some think so! More in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

US Thanksgiving Trade Post-Mortem
Since we featured the highly successful seasonal US Thanksgiving Trade in our last edition of TrendWatch Weekly, it seems appropriate to provide you with an update on how well it worked this time. SPOILER ALERT: It worked (for the most part)!