SYNOPSIS

Yes, there may be more new highs ahead, but at what cost? Unfortunately, each new high is just a tiny fraction ahead of the last one, yet that’s just enough to fuel the markets with FOMO (fear of missing out). It’s almost the end of November, and we’re not seeing that more-often-than-not year-end rally that carries most stocks significantly higher. Then again, we’re not seeing the carnage that year-end 2018 carried with it (yet).

Last week… Both indexes had similar small one-week declines this past week.
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PTP… The repair tactics that we kicked off for our damaged PTP APAR score didn’t hold up all that well, as we trimmed more losers and added replacements last week to shore up our previous efforts. The TSX and S&P APARs both dropped about 10 points last week, but while the PTP APAR fell sharply from 100, it held above the benchmark scores.

We disposed of two positions last week and added three more. Lately the momentum has been fizzling out on quite positive looking opportunities sooner than we’re used to. We take this as more evidence that whatever bull market conditions are left may be eroding. Still, we want to keep enough holdings in our portfolio to try to establish better stability than we’ve shown you lately. That may mean holding a few short positions as well.

PTA Perspective… The US Thanksgiving Day Trade
While most seasonality effects run over time spans of weeks, months and even years, there are some super short-term opportunities as well. Perhaps the best known are focussed on major US holidays… Memorial Day, Independence Day and Thanksgiving. You buy just ahead of the day before the holiday and sell at the end of the day after the holiday. The gains are small in nominal terms, but huge if you annualize the results, and your total holding time is just three days! We walk you through the details in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

Yes, new highs for the DJIA, S&P 500 and even Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Index this past week! We’ve been warning you for quite a number of weeks now, that these new highs were largely due to a handful of the highest market cap weighted stocks in each index, since the broader equities markets did not justify the enthusiasm of “new highs”. That has been changing, however. The broader markets (measured with our simple equally-weighted metric of proportion of stocks with positive trend values) have been catching up. Perhaps we have the beginnings of that Santa Clause Rally that is supposed to begin at about this time of year.

Last week… Both indexes had equal one-week gains this past week… not overwhelming in size, but in the right direction.

PTP… You may recall that our PTP APAR score was not only below our benchmarks last week, but actually a negative -1%. We put some “repair tactics” in place early in the week, and you can see the net result in the chart below. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR improved from 35% a week earlier to 37%, while the S&P 500 APAR fell slightly from 33% to +32%.
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We explained last week that wild swings might occur in our PTP APAR (or yours for that matter), when the number of constituents and their holding duration is quite small. We’ll walk you through what we did to get back in the driver’s seat in the full version of TrendWatch Weekly. As usual, one-week’s gain is not any assurance that we’ve undone the damage, but we’ll gain confidence as our PTP constituents keep rising over the coming weeks.

PTA Perspective… Time to Switch to Non-US Equities?
We read an interesting piece during the week on 10 year cycles where US equities vs non-US stocks are alternately favoured. As with most long-term cycles, the turning points aren’t very precise, but it appears that we’re near a 10-year turning point for US securities. If so, it may be time to sell US and move off-shore. We expand on that proposition in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

Featured Video… Ken Courtis on Global Investing Issues
It’s very rare, but we occasionally find a BizTV interview with someone who really tracks the big picture for investors very well and wraps the details up in a tightly logical package. Ken Courtis is a new discovery of ours, who is one of these people. (Check out his prestigious bio.) In this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly we embed a video of this recent interview. Learn how the US will soon be a distant second as a global economy, and how it will have to devalue its currency by 30-40% to ever hope to repair the self-inflicted damage caused by Trump’s trade wars.

SYNOPSIS

Yes, you’ll always find that brokers (if you have a full-service one), market analysts and financial advisors are always long on excuses! That’s why we advocate the do-it-yourself approach to all investors, no matter how experienced these “gurus” might claim to be. If they’re telling you about a proven market strategy backed up with long-term academic research, you might want to listen. But if they’re picking stocks or other securities for you to buy, you immediately know that they’re only interested in their own profitability… using your money.

Last week… Both indexes had gains again this past week., but for a change Canadian stocks took the lead!
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PTP… OUCH! Yes, that’s not a mistake in our calculations. Our PTP APAR score is not only below our benchmarks now, but actually negative. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR improved 25% to 35%, while the S&P 500 APAR moved up 7% to +33%.

We explained that wild swings might occur in our portfolio APAR (or yours for that matter), when the number of constituents and their holding duration is quite small. We’ll walk you through the details in the full version of TrendWatch Weekly. You can be assured that we’ll have portfolio repair tactics in place this coming week.

PTA Perspective… Update on “The Smart Money” – SSICI
After consistently reporting the monthly State Street Investor Confidence Index (SSICI) for quite a number of years, we put the brakes on, when our own in-depth historical research on the index showed that it had minimal predictive value. It appeared that the so-called “smart money” (institutional investors, like pension funds, etc… those with billions to move around as required) were actually following the lead of retail investors like you and I. It’s not quite that simple, but following the switches of big money back and forth between (risky) stocks and (safe) bonds was not providing any guidance to speak of to investors like us. So, we put the regular monthly reports on hold, but kept the analysis going in the background. We told you that we may revisit the SSICI data if anything interesting happened, Well, it has. Believe it or not there’s a mad rush into European stocks, in spite of everyday evidence to the contrary. We’ll share some commentary on this in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

The US Federal Reserve did in fact cut interest rates to 1.75% this past week. But with inflation at 2%, that means that “the real interest rate” is -0.25%. That may be great for borrowers, but banks will soon be charging customers to hold their customers’ money. Yet Trump wants more cuts! He never seems to realize that everything he does punishes the low-income blue-collar voters who elected him. They can’t get bank loans and certainly won’t be getting any interest income from bank deposits. And, stock market gains mean nothing to them.

Last week… Both indexes had gains again this past week.

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One new holding was added to the PTP last week (a play on natural gas as we roll into the winter months).

PTA Perspective… A Halloween Miracle & Halloween Massacre in the History of Finance
This week’s Perspective is a bit of a history lesson with Halloween Day, October 31, as the focal date. We look at the creation of Bitcoin on Halloween Day 2008 and Canada’s 2006 Halloween Massacre which robbed seniors and other investors looking for “reliable, safe income” of hundreds of millions of dollars overnight. The prime minister was Stephen Harper. His “executioner”, Jim “Flim Flam” Flaherty, his Finance Minister. More details in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.