SYNOPSIS

Ignore the fact that the S&P 500 and DJI are hitting all-time record highs. It’s meaningless when the “real market” is going nowhere… if anything it is drifting lower. That’s why the cartoon is so appropriate. There is investor complacency since the broader markets are not partying with the small handful of stocks that are moving the major indexes higher. Yet at the same time those of us mostly on the sidelines have a “fear of missing out” (FOMO) on the next big move whenever that happens. So enjoy the drinks, and let’s toast to a (normally) trend-positive November and December.

Last week… The S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 both had gains this past week, with US stocks leading the way.

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We still think the best place to be is mostly in cash right now (or taking a few short positions). There was no trading in the PTP last week, although we eliminated one position the week before.

PTA Perspective… Update on the Pot Patch
Although it’s probably premature to spend much time discussing investments in cannabis stocks at this time, we decided that an update is probably overdue. We’ve now entered Legal Cannabis Year 2.0 in Canada, and should see a variety of edibles, drinks and vape-able oils coming to a pot shop near you by year-end. That’s no guarantee of a quick turnaround in share prices… just a heads-up that the investing landscape in this sector may change soon.

SYNOPSIS

We don’t think anyone really has a prayer of seeing a US-China deal happen anytime soon. The media may manipulate some investors into believing that a deal is just around the corner, but that never leads to anything more than a one or two day pop to the upside before the prevailing downward trend resumes.

Last week… The S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 had modest moves this past week, but in opposite directions.
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PTP… Our PTP APAR score shrunk some this past week, as we added two new holdings. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR fell from 4% the previous week, while the S&P 500 APAR edged up into positive territory from -1% earlier.

We generally still think the best place to be is in cash right now (or taking short positions). Regardless, we bought a couple more long positions to try to stabilize swings in the PTP APAR. Our best longer-term position (17 weeks) is still doing most of the heavy lifting right now. Hopefully that weight will be distributed if our new acquisitions appreciate in value.

PTA Perspective… 2019 – Q3 Review – Global Perspective
All of the details for global stocks over Q3 (and looking forward) are included in this edition of TrendWatch Weekly. As usual we use ETFs and ADRs as our proxies for country/regional indexes.

SYNOPSIS

There’a a misconception, even among many experienced investors that small cap stocks are really tiny companies with no earnings and maybe a couple million in revenues. That’s so far from the truth! The metric, first of all, is market capitalization, which is share price times the number of outstanding shares. To even qualify for the S&P Small Cap 600 index, a company requires a market cap of $300M to $1.4B. General guidelines that apply across most major indexes are: Large cap – $10B+, Mid cap – $2B to $10B, Small cap – less than $2B. At the very top there are the Mega caps – $200B+. At the very bottom you’ll sometimes see reference to Micro caps – $50M to $2B, and even Nano caps – less than $50M. It’s good to keep things in perspective! Smaller companies often have the best (price) growth potential in optimistic times, while investors tend to park their cash in large caps for safety (and dividends) when pessimistic about the economy.

Last week… The S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 both declined again this past week. The S&P/TSX Composite Index was hit hardest, with declining oil prices (again).
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PTP… Our PTP APAR score has had a major boost this past week, but we’re still coping with the very small portfolio issue. We could have just as easily seen a substantial decline. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR fell 14 points, while the S&P 500 APAR slipped into negative territory by dropping 15%.

We reluctantly added three new positions late last week. The trend/consistency pairs were acceptable, though well below what we would have preferred. We still see that the best place to be is in cash right now (or short positions), but we felt a need to have a few more long positions to stabilize swings in the PTP APAR. Our one longer-term position (15 weeks) is doing most of the heavy lifting right now. Hopefully that weight will be distributed if our new acquisitions appreciate in value.

PTA Perspective… 2019 – Q3 Review – North America
This week and next we bring you our summaries for Q3 2019. All of the details for North American stocks are included in this edition of TrendWatch Weekly. Next time we’ll provide a global perspective.