SYNOPSIS

Well, the chart in the cartoon doesn’t have a time frame, but we do know that Trump’s rants drove the equities markets into bear market territory during Q4 of 2018. But surprisingly the markets bounced back in Q1 2019, when investors recognized that he couldn’t possibly win a trade war with any country. The problem though is that the American people are punished with each of his tariffs, not his target countries. He always gets it wrong, and apparently won’t listen to any of his advisors. There was some upside in Q2 until the “rant, rant, rants” escalated in May. We’re still net up for the first half of the year, but we know that there’s someone we can’t thank for that!

Last week… Another about-face last week, after having reasonable gains a week earlier.

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We added three new stocks last week and sold one.

PTA Perspective… 2019 – Q2 Review – North America
This week and next we bring you our summaries for Q2. While Q1 was a breath of fresh air after a horrific Q4 2018, the May correction took some of the wind out of those sales. Still the first half of 2019 hasn’t been too bad. All of the details for North American stocks are included in this edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

Cannabis Corner… We have our usual updated chart of the performance of the largest cannabis stocks (our “Billionaire Club” based on market cap). This group is still suffering from set-backs in shares prices since the end of Q1.

SYNOPSIS

Oh, he’s winning alright! Just like Herbert Hoover leading the US and the rest of the world into The Great Depression of the 30s, which was only ended by the economic demands of a World War! All we can do is attempt to make some profitable trades on the days when he’s not trying to blow his own face off!

Last week… After negligible positive moves the previous week, we more than doubled those last week. US stocks are recovering faster than Canadian equities.

PTP… While there wasn’t much change in our PTP APAR score over the past week, the S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 APARs had gains of 10 percentage points or more.
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In spite of reporting that we were still in the “neutral zone” last week, we got impatient and added three new positions. (Do as we say, not as we do!) We now have seven long positions, but still a whole lot of cash that we’ll deploy if the bounce to the upside continues.

PTA Perspective… More on Crypto, Cannabis, and another Thematic Category to Consider… eGaming
This week we offer a few updates on our coverage of cannabis and equity-related ways to invest in cryptocurrencies; and start a discussion of the eGaming/eSports thematic sector that is only on the verge of getting general media coverage. We’ll get you started with some details on all of the layers involved, and how you might start with an ETF or two, and pick individual stocks later.

Cannabis Corner… We have our usual updated chart of the performance of the largest cannabis stocks (our “Billionaire Club” based on market cap), but also reveal some recent updates on Canadian-listed cannabis companies as part of the general PTA Perspective section (noted above).

SYNOPSIS

Although volatility in the stock markets as measured by VIX or variations on VIX are basically at long-term average levels, it certain seems like the daily Biz TV reports are exactly like the one above. The gyrations are clearly exaggerated by the media, but that can still be unnerving at times.

Last week… Last week the shifts in the S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index were negligible compared to those reported in the two previous weeks. In fact we needed to change the scale on our chart that extended out to 5% previously. 1% is more than enough this week. Still, the direction is positive.

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We sold one position and bought another one this past week. That still leaves us with just four stocks in the portfolio and a whole lot of cash.

PTA Perspective… Buying Bitcoin without Buying Bitcoin
In spite of the US SEC’s refusal to approve Bitcoin or other cryptocurrency ETFs (yet), Grayscale Investments has somehow managed to launch investment trusts based on Bitcoin and also Ethereum Classic. They have more crypto-offerings, actually, but those two are the only ones now trading on the stock markets (GBTC & ETCG). You’re effectively buying a share of their stash of crypto-coins. But you’re paying extra for that privilege. This week we get into how much extra and whether that might be worthwhile or not.

Cannabis Corner… Cannabis stocks are still on the decline. All of the largest stocks (our “Billionaire Club” based on market cap) are now trending lower, along with the vast majority of the smaller companies. As usual, we always have more detail.

SYNOPSIS

It’s no surprise that Trump backed off on his 5% tariff on Mexican goods, although Mexico did not concede anything. If the tariff had been implemented, 400,000 American workers (blue-collar Trump supporters) would have lost their jobs, and Americans would pay 10%+ more for “American” cars. Is it possible that Trump is starting to acknowledge facts that he hasn’t made up?

Last week… After my possibly overstated warning that stocks could go much lower last week, there was a nice rebound… especially in US equities. Time will tell whether we’re into a new up-leg, or observing a dead-cat bounce.

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PTP… Our PTP APAR score inched higher over the past week, and the S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 APARs flipped back above zero.

We sold two more positions this past week. And, the list of potential “buys” is still shrinking.

PTA Perspective… Market Revival or Dead Cat Bounce?
The market rebound last week was certainly encouraging, but one week is hardly going to let us know whether the selling binge is over. We’ve seen many dead-cat bounces before. Still, some of the indexes are not that far from record highs again. More detail to come.

Cannabis Corner… Cannabis stocks are still on the decline. We only have 2 out of 14 stocks in our “Billionaire Club” (based on market cap) with positive trends at this time. Still, there are always a few that have a one-week surge based on an upbeat press release or positive analyst comments. More details in this week’s coverage of that thematic sector.

SYNOPSIS

Which style are you? I think there’s some of both in each of us, but let’s hope that the thinker style is the largest percentage. The media play up the hysteria to confuse us.

Last week… There’s been even bigger declines this past week than the week before. It’s not surprising that US stocks dropped more, with Trump’s continuing idiocy.

PTP… Our PTP APAR score pulled back over the past week while the S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 APARs turned even more negative.

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Investor Confidence… The Global Investor Confidence Index (SSICI) increased to 79.5, up 6.6 points from April’s revised reading of 72.9.

As usual we provide more detail on the regional ICI’s in the complete Investor Confidence section of TrendWatch Weekly. We also question how smart the so-called “smart money” really is.

PTA Perspective… How Worse Can It Get? A Lot Worse!
This week we do a quick review of the ups and downs of the equities markets over the past few years. We don’t claim any competence in predicting downturns will last, but we can show you that conditions can get much worse than they are now.

Cannabis Corner… Cannabis stocks have been on the decline with the general markets, only more so. Only 2 out of 14 stocks in our “Billionaire Club” (based on market cap) have positive trends at this time. More details in this week’s coverage of that thematic sector.