How Did the “Smart Money” Miss This Rally in Equities?

SYNOPSIS

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We hope this isn’t you! It shouldn’t be if you’re learning and profiting from the ProfiTrend Advantage. There’s nothing like momentum stocks to keep your portfolio moving in the right direction. And the collective momentum has taken most of the major indexes to all-time record highs recently.

Last week… Unlike the previous week, the S&P 500 took the lead this past week, with a gain of about 1%. The S&P/TSX Composite Index was unchanged.

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PTP… Our PTP APAR score continued to climb over the past week, while the S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 APARs each fell a few points on our scale.

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We added three new holdings to our portfolio last week, to reduce our excess cash position.
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Investor Confidence… In April the State Street (Global) Investor Confidence Index (SSICI) increased to 72.9 up 1.7 points from March’s revised reading of 71.2. That’s really not much in light of current equity market conditions.

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As usual we provide more detail on the regional ICI’s in the complete Investor Confidence section of TrendWatch Weekly. We also question how smart the so-called “smart money” really is. After all, you and I have been accumulating amazing profits in equities since the December 24 low, but the proportion of funds in equities held by the “smart money” remains near all-time lows. Perhaps “dumb money” is a more appropriate term.

Cannabis Corner… Pot stocks were mixed bag of winners and losers last week. Check out the details in the expanded section.

PTA Perspective… Since we’ve devoted a little more discussion than usual of the latest SSICI results and their implications, we haven’t prepared an extra PTA Perspective section this week. But be sure to send in your suggestions for future topics or research projects.

Insider Trading: Do You Really Understand It?

SYNOPSIS

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We hope you all celebrated something this Easter weekend… chocolate, cannabis on 420 Day Saturday, a chocolate/cannabis edible, a rabbit BBQ or traditional dinner with family and friends! No doubt Trump celebrated with a platter of cheeseburgers! It was a shortened trading week with the Friday holiday, and a relatively uninteresting one from a trading perspective. It’s good to take a break though, before working on which way the markets will move next.

Day by Day… While Canadian stocks fared better than those south of the border, less than 1% over a week isn’t a lot to brag about.

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PTP… Our PTP APAR score continued to climb over the past week, while the S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 APARs each fell by 7-8 points on our scale.
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Once again, we expected to be on a buying spree last week, but with the general lack of direction, we just sold one position and replaced it with one more during this holiday shortened week. Hopefully next week will bring better opportunities.

Cannabis Corner… Pot stocks were mixed. One stock fell 24% just last week alone, while a half dozen had 5-10% gains. Check out the details in the expanded section.

PTA Perspective… Insider Trading: Do You Really Understand It?
Novice investors, and even some with considerable experience, tend to jump to the conclusion that insider trading is always a crime and should be dealt with accordingly. They vividly remember Martha Stewart convicted and shipped off to prison for five months. But the commonest form of insider trading is 100% legal; and the extent to which it happens can be followed as a fundamental indicator of a company’s future stock price moves. We explain (or remind you) in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

Hark! A Golden Cross Arrives Just before Easter!

SYNOPSIS

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From our perspective, the “clowns” are the business media and most of the so-called analysts that they talk to. The timing comes from applying a systematic numbers-based approach with all of your buy/sell decisions and tracking your progress. Whether you incorporate aspects of our relative trend analysis™ (RTA) approach or not, be sure to measure your progress like you would watch your speedometer when you’re driving. You always need to know how fast your profits are rising, if you’re going to achieve your ultimate financial goals, and compare your speed with the competition!

Day by Day… The markets were virtually unchanged this past week. Boring!

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PTP… Our PTP APAR score continued to rebound over the past week, while the S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 APARs were practically unchanged.
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We expected to be on a buying spree last week, but with the general lack of direction, we just sold one position and replaced it with one more. Hopefully next week will provide better opportunities.

Cannabis Corner… Pot stocks took a tumble last week, with few exceptions. Some of the large-cap group we track fell as much as 15%, although over half of them still have positive trend values. Check out the details.

PTA Perspective… Hark! A Golden Cross Arrives Just before Easter!
A Golden Cross is when the 50-day moving average of a major index crosses up above the 200-day moving average. That has happened with the S&P 500 and most of the other major indexes just recently. It generally indicates that a solid rally is turning into a longer-term positive trend. The inverse, which we discussed last fall is the Death Cross, where you may be falling into a prolonged down-trend. This week we discuss how our own version of these crossing points within the relative trend analysis™ (RTA) framework get’s you out of declines and into new uptrends much sooner than the traditional approach.

2019 – Q1 Review – Global Perspective

SYNOPSIS

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Can we attribute recent equities gains on trade talks to “juicing”? We have our doubts, but we’re not complaining about the equity price improvements across the board. Just saying that the media reasons for up and down movements in market indexes are a work of fiction, since no evidence is ever provided for cause-and-effect relationships. It’s all speculative.

Day by Day… 2% in a single week may not be record breaking, but we’ll take it!

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PTP… Our PTP APAR score rebounded nicely over the past week, and the S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 APARs had some decent improvements too.
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In spite of general market improvements, we ended up buying just one new position and selling two, based on our volatility-based sell signals.

Cannabis Corner… Pot stocks continue to do well,. Most of the large-cap group have positive trends and substantial one-week improvements last week. Check out the details.

PTA Perspective… 2019 – Q1 Review – Global Perspective
After providing a recap of the performance of North American stocks last week, we’re now taking you through a guided tour of global equities. It turns out that the morbid picture we portrayed at the end of 2018 has improved dramatically. Check out the countries that you should keep an eye on. Then use ETFs or ADRs to buy-in.