SYNOPSIS

Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index are in bear market territory now by the usual “-20% from the latest high” metric. As if we didn’t know that already. By our measures, we’ve been in bear market conditions for over two months now, and have been happily sitting on cash for the most part! So, how low could we go and for how long? Well, we don’t offer predictions of that sort, but a lot lower by historical standards! It’s not like we get an elastic snap-back once we reach this stage. After declining 20% in 2008 from the previous high, the markets continued to fall another 30%, for a grand total of -50%. Yes, many lost half of their retirement nest egg. Many left the stock markets then, never to return.

Day by Day… No doubt there was far too much hype focussed on the +5% gain in the major US indexes on Wednesday, while the Canadian markets were closed. It was interesting, but apparently a temporary blip on the radar. As per our cartoon above, nothing has changed.

PTP… Our PTP APAR score actually improved some more from 49% to 79%. Keep in mind though that we only have two holdings. One is a leveraged inverse ETF and the other is a stock that can’t fall in value, since it’s the target of a takeover bid which should close any day now at a fixed price. Meanwhile, the S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 scores are now a little less negative, relative to the near record lows the previous week.

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Investor Confidence… The State Street Global Investor Confidence Index decreased to 79.8 in December, down 2.8 points from November’s revised reading of 82.6. This is the lowest level ever reached in the 18 years that we’ve been following this index! Yes, even lower than at the bottom of the Great Recession.

As usual we provide more detail on the regional ICI’s in the complete Investor Confidence section of TrendWatch Weekly.

Cannabis Corner… There continue to be a steady stream of interesting stories in the pot patch, but few of them have had a substantial impact on stock prices. They continue to drift lower for the most part.

PTA Perspective… 2018 – Year-End Review – North America
With one last full day of 2018 trading ahead on Monday, we’ve decided to get a head start on our year-end analysis by using Friday’s close as our cut-off. If there’s a market crash on Monday, we’ll update the numbers we’re sharing in this week’s edition.

SYNOPSIS

Well, we now have market conditions that are close to the worst in the history of producing TrendWatch Weekly, and there’s no evidence yet that we’ll see a Santa Clause rally. It looks like it’ll be a lump of coal in our stocking this year.

Day by Day… Nothing but negative numbers over the past week, with the S&P down over 7%.

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PTP… Our PTP APAR score actually improved from 28% to 49% in spite of having very few holdings. Meanwhile, the S&P/TSX Composite Index score dropped sharply to -70%, and the S&P 500 APAR is a whopping -113%.

There was no trading in the PTP last week.

Cannabis Corner… It was another horrible week for pot stocks again, with our “$1 billion market cap club” stocks all down over the past week.

SYNOPSIS

No, this isn’t a cartoon, and, no, it isn’t funny. In his “It’s easy to win trade wars!” campaign, all tariffs that Trump put on imports from China or any other country hurts Americans more than anyone else. Americans now pay more for American cars, if they happen to be built in Canada or Mexico. And now there’s almost $1.5 billion per month that American tech companies need to pay to bring the products they designed and contracted out into the USA. That’s going to be passed along directly to the consumer, the American people. If you’re not anticipating rapidly rising inflation and perhaps even recession in 2019, we’d love to hear your rebuttal. Trump thinks he’s punishing the Chinese, but he’s crushing US citizens instead.

Day by Day… Lately, there has typically been a “teaser day” or two each week, before we’re slapped in the face with weekly declines again by Friday.

http://robertrobb.com/taking-grijalva-and-his-budget-seriously/ order cialis Stress is one of the killers of lovemaking. Kamagra widen the vessels and allow canada levitra the penile area to achieve stronger erections. Approachable Via Kamagra Online cheap cialis professional & OTC Online shopping of this generic drug. This particular enzyme makes the person face problems viagra for sale uk like erectile dysfunction into their life. PTP… Our PTP APAR score has remained positive at 28% in spite of very few holdings. Meanwhile, the S&P/TSX Composite Index score dropped to -46%, and the S&P 500 APAR went as low as -55%. If you see a buying opportunity here, you’re braver than we are.

We closed out one of our few remaining positions in the PTP this past week and added a REIT that has a reasonable trend and a 3.7% annualized monthly distribution rate. We want to keep something in the portfolio, if only as window dressing!

Cannabis Corner… It was another bad week for pot stocks in general. HEXO reported some pretty decent financial results for its latest quarter, but that didn’t boost share price.

PTA Perspective… The Predictive Merits of the SSICI
We’ve previously set the stage for a research exercise we’ve had underway over the past few weeks. We report the State Street Investor Confidence Index (SSICI) here monthly, but does it have any predictive value for future stock prices? Well, we’ve run the numbers and will share the results with you this week.

SYNOPSIS

According to BNN Bloomberg, $1.4 trillion in value disappeared from the US equities markets last week. How much of that was yours? And, has anyone noticed that Trump isn’t taking credit for stock market performance anymore? It’s because the US always loses trade wars, that it inexplicably always starts. “It’s easy to win trade wars”, said Trump. Perhaps they’ll put that on his tombstone. Meanwhile individual investors like us are left holding cash, which analysts are now finally telling us is the best investment! A non-loss is better than a certain loss. There’s even an acronym for cash now… TINA, “There Is No Alternative”. Best of luck to any buy/hold investors out there!

Day by Day… There may have been one week of rebound, but we’re back on the downward trajectory again. Nearly a 5% decline over a single week with the S&P 500 and -2.5% for the S&P/TSX Composite Index.

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There was no trading in the PTP last week, although we’re looking closely at inverse ETFs to profit from continuing weakness.

Cannabis Corner… It was another bad week for pot stocks in general, but one had respectable gains… Cronos, after a major investment from a big tobacco company, Altria.

PTA Perspective… Are You Ready for the Trump Bear Market?
We’re still trying to prep you for the worst possible scenario, since it’s difficult to see any light at the end of the tunnel. Stay in cash or try one of the ways that we suggest for profiting in a declining marketplace.

SYNOPSIS

These really are sad times. In Canada a major GM plant closure. Among various reasons, GM chose to shut down Oshawa, because Trump’s tariffs were driving up prices of Canadian steel. (They don’t want to use crappy US steel, and US steel makers couldn’t keep up with demand anyway.) GM no doubt has other issues too, because they’re closing plants in Mexico and the US too. That can’t all be steel tariff related (or is it?). So, Trump fights back by attempting to cut all subsidies to GM for, well, everything. Meanwhile the GM Canada union should be called on the carpet too. Plant closures do happen. Maybe not that often, but did they have a contingency fund for workers in case that happened? No. Do they have a contingency fund for supporting laid off workers while they get retrained? No. Would they pay for retraining? No. One has to wonder what autoworkers got for those millions (or billions?) of union dues? Millionaire union leaders?

Day by Day… To some extent, this past week was almost a mirror image of the previous week’s. Last time S&P/TSX Composite Index declined -1% and the S&P 500 took a much larger -4% decline. This past week the S&P 500 managed the biggest gains of almost 5%, while the S&P/TSX Composite Index declined.

PTP… Our PTP APAR score continued to improve over the past week, although we remind you that we have very few holdings. That could change abruptly! Meanwhile the S&P/TSX Composite Index remains negative, but the S&P 500 APAR managed to move to the upside.
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There was no trading in the PTP last week.

Investor Confidence… The November 2018 results for the State Street Investor Confidence Index (SSICI) arrived last week. The Global Investor Confidence Index decreased to 82.7, down 1.7 points from October’s revised reading of 84.4.

As usual we provide more detail on the regional ICI’s in the complete Investor Confidence section of TrendWatch Weekly.

Cannabis Corner… It was another bad week for pot stocks in general, but a few companies had respectable gains.

PTA Perspective… How Much Confidence Do We Have in Investor Confidence Indexes?
Most investor confidence indexes are based on polls that ask simple questions like “How confident are you that this is a good time to be invested in stocks (on a 1 to 10 scale, where 10 is ‘most confident’?” We prefer the State Street Investor Confidence Index (SSICI), because it provides data on what large investors are actually doing with their money on (risky) stocks vs (safe) bonds. Real money flows are measured, not opinions. This week we describe in broad terms, a project that we have underway to determine whether the SSICI, in spite of its face validity, has any predictive merit.