SYNOPSIS

85% of all North American stock prices are now trending toward zero. Is the exploding head responsible? You can decide for yourselves, but he certainly hasn’t done anything to improve the performance of stock prices.

Day by Day… One of the most extreme one-week declines we’ve ever seen.

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PTP… Our PTP APAR score remarkably held steady at 113%. But both the S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index scores doubled their annualized rate of decline.

On the trading front we sold four positions and added two. The additions could well be a mistake!

PTA Perspective… How Low Can It Go?
As you know, we slide into cash during broad market declines. Our volatility-based sell signals take us out, one position at a time, and the supply of companies with good trend and consistency numbers dries up. So, there’s almost nothing to buy. In short, it’s a (mostly) automated exit strategy. We don’t attempt to predict when the next wave up will happen, we just wait for it. But others already do see light at the end of the tunnel. We’ll talk about what they’re looking at, so that you have alternate perspectives from ours.

SYNOPSIS

With nearly 80% of stocks overall declining trend-wise, it was only a matter of time when the cannabis stocks, stubbornly fighting that trend, would succumb to lose their lustre. For us, that just means stepping out of that thematic marketplace for now, until both the general market and cannabis companies in particular show signs of recovery. We’re happy to be mostly in cash! No gains to be made, but no further losses either.

Day by Day… The S&P 500 ended unchanged over the week, while the S&P/TSX Composite Index managed a small gain.

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PTP… Our PTP APAR score dropped a little more last week to 112%. But both the S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index scores improved a bit, even though they are clearly still negative.

On the trading front we sold one position and replaced it with another. Otherwise we’re happy to be mostly in cash for now.

PTA Perspective… Warrants & Weed
We were going to take a break from focussing on the cannabis companies for a while, but we can’t ignore the sell-off that began the day before Marijuana Legalization Day on Wednesday, October 17. But, as it turns out, our alternative topic for this week was going to be a revisiting of a poorly understood equity derivative class traded on major stock exchanges. We’re talking about share purchase warrants. As it turns out, this asset class has been making a come-back within the ongoing series of cannabis company IPOs. So we have a chance to educate you on warrants, while still dipping into what’s happening after the first few days of cannabis legalization in Canada.

SYNOPSIS

It’s been another one of those weeks. We reported last week about how grim things are on a broad-market basis. Well, it’s worse now. 70% of about 2500+ Canadian stocks that we track are now trending lower, as are 81% of nearly 10,000 US stocks. The percentages are worse when you focus on the large cap stocks of the S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index.

Day by Day… Both the S&P/TSX Composite Index and the S&P 500 dived sharply last week, before a small relief rally on Friday.

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On the trading front we sold one position and replaced it with another. Otherwise we’re happy to be mostly in cash for now.

PTA Perspective… Weed Watch Ahead of Wednesday, October 17
We can’t ignore the fact that the magic date (Oct 17) for the overthrow of cannabis prohibition in Canada is just a few days off. Whether you’re still having trouble adding up the amazing profits you’ve made since early August, or waiting to see if you should jump in after celebration day, this is a monumental occurrence for the investing community.

Cannabis a thematic investment space that has clearly dwarfed US state-based legalization (in some states) by orders of magnitude. It’s not that the Canadian recreational market is bigger (California’s consumer base is probably higher than all of Canada), but we’ve spawned the largest producers of product and services in the world, and none of them are just looking at Canadian market potential. These will be the global players that will set the standards worldwide.

SYNOPSIS

Since we’re all do-it-yourself online traders, we don’t even talk to a broker, but this same cartoon applies to the media where talking heads and analyst guests are feeding us “all the bull we can bear”. Speaking of which, the major US stock indexes keep nudging against or through all time records, but should the media really be touting that? It only takes a fraction of a point increase in an index above a previous high to generate a new all-time high. How meaningful is that? Meanwhile on a broad market basis, we’re not seeing any cause for enthusiasm. By our broadest metrics of stock market performance (12,000+ stocks) about 70% of them are trending lower. By our unofficial perspective, this is almost as bearish as things ever get. Could there be a prompt rebound? Maybe, but what’s going to motivate that?

Day by Day… Both the S&P/TSX Composite Index and the S&P 500 fell last week, and this time both took a similar hit.

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On the trading front we sold two more positions, while added one new one (a mistake in retrospect). More on that later.

PTA Perspective… 2018 – Q3 Review – Global Perspective
It’s time to have a global look at Q3 this week, using our favourite way to evaluate world-wide stock market performance — the MCSI index-based family of iShares ETFs from Blackrock. They simultaneously provide a measure of global index performance, but are available for purchase as well. And they’re all on a common scale of $USD.

SYNOPSIS

Yes, we’re ¾ of the way through 2018 already. NAFTA may finally be a done deal. And, the major US stock indexes keep nudging against or through all time records. We’re not talking major upside, but noticeable. It only takes a fraction of a point increase in an index above a previous high to generate a new all-time high. Meanwhile on a broad market basis, we’re not seeing much cause for enthusiasm… especially not among Canadian stocks that aren’t in the cannabis patch.

Day by Day… Both the S&P/TSX Composite Index and the S&P 500 fell last week, and as usual, Canadian stocks took the bigger hit by the close on Friday.

PTP… Our PTP APAR score declined again to reach 138% by the end of last week. Our previous report attributed a PTP decline to some happy profit-taking. It’s a different story this week, but we’re continuing our winning streak of 23 consecutive weeks above our long term median of about 110. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR fell 6 points to a more negative -9%, while the S&P 500 APAR dropped to 10% from 25% previously.

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On the trading front we sold two positions, and added two new ones. In one case we bought on Monday and sold the same position at a loss on Friday. That’s pretty rare, but it does happen from time to time.

Investor Confidence… The September 2018 results for the State Street Investor Confidence Index (SSICI) arrived last week. The Global Investor Confidence Index decreased to 88.3, down 5.7 points from August’s revised reading of 94.0. Most of this rather large monthly decline was institutional investors dumping North American stocks. We should take note of that!

As usual we provide more detail on the regional ICI’s in the complete Investor Confidence section of TrendWatch Weekly.

PTA Perspective… 2018 – Q3 Review – North America
It’s quarterly review time again, as we check out the year-to-date numbers and the current trends, as we head into the final quarter of the year. We may have some slow progress ahead through October, but November/December and into 2019 are generally a good time to be invested in stocks.