SYNOPSIS

Sorry, no cartoon this week. Harsh reality is setting in. We’ve reminded you many times that everyone is hurt by a trade war, but no one is hurt more than the instigator… in this case the US, or to name names, Donald Trump. The Great Depression started with a US-instigated trade war; and apparently, no one in the US has learned from that lesson or any of the others that followed. Many in the media have said it’s too early to see the repercussions this time around, but the US data above show that US farmers have 20% less income year-to-date than last year, thanks to the president they elected. Most US economists will tell you that a trade war is a tax on both US corporations and the US consumer. US consumers in particular don’t want to buy US goods. They’re far too inferior to imports in quality and more expensive. We breathe a sigh of relief that this hasn’t affected the US stock markets so far, but that is so inevitably coming.

Day by Day… While the S&P 500 stocks gained smoothly over the past week to yield a 1.2% gain, S&P/TSX Composite Index equities zig-zagged higher for a smaller gain of about 0.8%.

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PTP… Our PTP APAR score declined to 592% from nearly 700% the previous week. Meanwhile, the S&P/TSX Composite and S&P 500 APARs both retreated even more. The S&P/TSX Composite Index is now trending lower. The PTP is still well ahead of the 7 year average of roughly 100%.

We had a busier-than-usual week with 8 transactions… 3 sells, 3 buys, and a buy/sell combo (a stock swap due to an acquisition that involved share swapping).

PTA Perspective… Canadian Cannabis Stocks… Ramping up to October 17!
Last week we provided an update on the thematic cannabis industry in Canada (after all recreational legalization is coming soon). Last week we saw a few pot stock price pull-backs. Several PTA members had additional questions about last week’s coverage. We’re happy to provide answers in this week’s follow-up. At the same time we want to warn you of the risks and rewards of riding a rapidly advancing group of stocks. You can’t expect big daily and weekly gains to last forever, so you need to be ready with a finger on the Sell button at all times. The worst investor mistake ever is to try to stop a falling knife. We provide more detail in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.