SYNOPSIS

Ever wonder what legalized pot will look like off the shelf in October (assuming your province has any stores open at that time)? This clip offers a sneak preview.

Pretty boring right? But it’’s clear that the government wants retailers to focus on the information on the labels for the time being, instead of having colourful sexy labels. We’re OK with that!

Day by Day… Both the S&P/TSX Composite Index and the S&P 500 had decent gains last week, and for a change the S&P/TSX Composite Index came out ahead.
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PTP… Our PTP APAR score declined sharply from 592% to 155% last week. We’ll explain what happened in the more detailed ProfiTrend Portfolio section. Meanwhile, the S&P/TSX Composite APAR is a little less negative, and the S&P 500 APAR gained a few more percentage points.

On the trading front we sold two positions, and didn’t replace them.

PTA Perspective… Canadian Cannabis Stocks: Q&A
The comments and questions about the imminent overturn of cannabis prohibition in Canada continue to roll in. So, with apologies to those who don’t want anything to do with pot stocks, we’re on that topic again this week, Q&A style. We’ll have something different for you next week. Send in suggestions for topics you’d like to see covered if you wish.

SYNOPSIS

Sorry, no cartoon this week. Harsh reality is setting in. We’ve reminded you many times that everyone is hurt by a trade war, but no one is hurt more than the instigator… in this case the US, or to name names, Donald Trump. The Great Depression started with a US-instigated trade war; and apparently, no one in the US has learned from that lesson or any of the others that followed. Many in the media have said it’s too early to see the repercussions this time around, but the US data above show that US farmers have 20% less income year-to-date than last year, thanks to the president they elected. Most US economists will tell you that a trade war is a tax on both US corporations and the US consumer. US consumers in particular don’t want to buy US goods. They’re far too inferior to imports in quality and more expensive. We breathe a sigh of relief that this hasn’t affected the US stock markets so far, but that is so inevitably coming.

Day by Day… While the S&P 500 stocks gained smoothly over the past week to yield a 1.2% gain, S&P/TSX Composite Index equities zig-zagged higher for a smaller gain of about 0.8%.

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PTP… Our PTP APAR score declined to 592% from nearly 700% the previous week. Meanwhile, the S&P/TSX Composite and S&P 500 APARs both retreated even more. The S&P/TSX Composite Index is now trending lower. The PTP is still well ahead of the 7 year average of roughly 100%.

We had a busier-than-usual week with 8 transactions… 3 sells, 3 buys, and a buy/sell combo (a stock swap due to an acquisition that involved share swapping).

PTA Perspective… Canadian Cannabis Stocks… Ramping up to October 17!
Last week we provided an update on the thematic cannabis industry in Canada (after all recreational legalization is coming soon). Last week we saw a few pot stock price pull-backs. Several PTA members had additional questions about last week’s coverage. We’re happy to provide answers in this week’s follow-up. At the same time we want to warn you of the risks and rewards of riding a rapidly advancing group of stocks. You can’t expect big daily and weekly gains to last forever, so you need to be ready with a finger on the Sell button at all times. The worst investor mistake ever is to try to stop a falling knife. We provide more detail in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

Yes, Trudeau has had his share of crap to deal with recently, so maybe he does need the stress-reducer that only pot can easily provide. Everything on his plate right now could have negative repercussions for the Canadian economy. But amazingly, it’s Canadians (cult environmentalists, judges blocking a very necessary pipeline, a premier with a bone to pick on carbon taxes), who are trying to make the Canadian economy fail. The retarded president south of the border doesn’t help matters! Many Canadians’ short-sightedness blinds them to the reality of job losses, a lower Canadian dollar and declining stock prices, while ignoring the fact that they are responsible for these results! Only pot stocks are saving the day for Canadian investors right now, thanks to the ailing Justin Trudeau. Smoke on buddy!

Day by Day… Interpretation is not required in this chart. The four-day trading week was a write-off, with exceptions that will be mentioned in the remainder of this week’s edition of `TrendWatch Weekly.

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PTP… Our PTP APAR score rose to almost 700% last week. Meanwhile, the S&P/TSX Composite and S&P 500 APARs both retreated even more. The S&P/TSX Composite Index is now trending lower.

Last week we sold three new positions and bought two new ones.

PTA Perspective… The Suddenly Re-Awakened Cannabis Market!
Yes, the very week after our last update on marijuana stocks in August, their prices took flight again. We didn’t predict it; it just happened. But, that’s the kind of “high” we can appreciate. Check out all the details in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

Pop quiz: Is Donald Trump (a) senile, (b) psychotic, (c) paranoid, (d) delusional, (e) dumb as a fence post, or (f) all of the above? Well, I do have a PhD in Psychology, and I’m going with “all of the above”. Thankfully, though, that doesn’t seem to matter to the stock markets. Investors assume that he’s too deranged to do any real harm (so far). Mind you the “smart money” (i.e. institutional investors) have been dumping North American equities in August, and moving into safer securities. Maybe they know something that we don’t? (More on that below.)

Day by Day… The S&P 500 had an adequate week with a 1% gain, while the S&P/TSX Composite Index drifted lower again with a fractional loss by Friday. No doubt, the cramped timeframe to resolve NAFTA issues may have played a role. Back to the bargaining table next Wednesday.

PTP… Our PTP APAR score gained a bunch more points from 369% last week. Meanwhile, the S&P/TSX Composite and S&P 500 APARs both retreated.

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Investor Confidence… The August 2018 results for the State Street Investor Confidence Index (SSICI) arrived last week. The Global Investor Confidence Index decreased to 94.3, down 7.4 points from July’s revised reading of 101.7. Most of this rather large monthly decline is institutional investors dumping North American stocks.

As usual we provide more detail on the regional ICI’s in the complete Investor Confidence section of TrendWatch Weekly.

PTA Perspective… Top-Down vs Bottom-Up Investing & Beta
While we prefer a top-down approach to investing, there’s no reason (with the right tactics) that you can’t be just as successful working bottom-up. One popular and generally available stock metric that can potentially improve your success rate either way is beta (β). If you’re new to the concept, we walk you through it; and this may be a worthwhile refresher for those who vaguely understand it, but don’t use it. We also make some useful comparisons with our own relative trend analysis™ (RTA) .