SYNOPSIS

Yes, American farmers who supported Trump will suffer, but so will many other Trump supporters. Who makes and buys Harley-Davidson motorcycles? American Trump supporters. Who’s moving operations to Europe, eliminating American jobs, because of Trump’s trade war? Harley-Davidson! And, this is just the beginning.

Day by Day… More zig-zagging last week! Canadian stocks zigged higher, while US stocks zagged lower.

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We stayed out of trading this past week.

PTA Perspective… Summer Seasonality
The data suggesting that certain classes of stocks have better price gains some times of the year than others is pretty strong, even if we wouldn’t base an investment strategy solely on that. But there’s a blanket seasonal effect that says that you’re better off out of the markets in the unfavourable six months of the year which includes the summer (specifically early May to the end of October). This week we point out a number of calendar effects that suggest that a six month vacation now will bite into your long-term profitability.

SYNOPSIS

If anyone can rain on a parade, It’s Donald J. Trump! Fortunately, investors weren’t rattled too much by his public displays of ignorance this time. Perhaps we’re getting used to it?

Day by Day… All in all, it was a fairly positive week on both sides of the border. Gains were fairly steady through the five trading days.

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PTP… Our PTP APAR score remains well above the benchmark rates. In fact our score rose from 193% to 268%. Meanwhile the S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR rose 7% and the S&P 500 climbed 19% to its current level of 25%.

We sold three positions last week (on the usual sell signals) and added four more.

PTA Perspective… Do you know the Alpha (α) & Beta (β) of your stocks?
Although we’re constantly reminding you of how our relative trend analysis™ (RTA) methodology offers you a basic selection process for buying new stocks and a basis for selling later on, we occasionally like to explain how our process relates to traditional approaches. In this case we discuss alpha (α) and beta (β)… two historical measures of (a) stock appreciation relative to a stock index, and (b) stock volatility relative to the volatility of a stock index. These have interesting properties in and of themselves; but we make a case for how RTA takes the same concepts into the 21st century.

SYNOPSIS

Mini-Rant… We actually find it amusing when Americans refer to their “allies”. Does the US really have any allies anymore? Maybe there were some during WW2, but this is the 21st century. The only significant ally the US had during their unprovoked invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan was the UK, and PM David Cameron was promptly turfed out of office in the next British election for that blunder. The US has started most trade wars and has always lost. The Great Depression of the 30’s is the best example. Other countries will suffer too, of course, but the instigator always takes the biggest hit to its economy. Common sense tells us that… something Trump is apparently lacking.

The US imports steel from more than 100 countries (the major ones in descending order are Canada, Brazil, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Japan, and Taiwan). In retaliation, suppose each country targets US products produced in key Trump supporter states. China has already targeted Trump supporters growing soybeans, as well as aircraft, cars and 103 other products… in essence nailing the manufacturing states that supported Trump. Now what if each and every country affected by US tariffs, split up the other Trump supporter states with tariffs on their products. The US economy would be crushed. Where are their allies now?

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Day by Day… The US markets were closed for Memorial Day last Monday, then zig-zagged their way to higher levels by weekend. After losses Monday and Tuesday (relative to the previous Friday), the S&P/TSX Composite Index ended the week with a small loss. (All data points are relative to the previous Friday.)

PTP… Our PTP APAR score remains well above the benchmark rates.

We sold one position last week, and probably should have sold more. We had been taking advantage of the recent uptrend in Energy stocks; but that came to an unexpected abrupt end and reversal last week. Sadly, we were on vacation and enjoying other activities than trading! We’ll repair the damage this week. As a do-it-yourself investor you have to expect these situations to pop up now and then.