SYNOPSIS

The long ties and tiny hands of US politics! Investors are still trying to cope with the most ignorant president in the history of the 2nd biggest world economy running a country and international relations on Twitter. World leaders have no trouble dismissing him as an idiot, but individual and even institutional investors have to be concerned about him denouncing one thing one day, and then retracting it the next. Perhaps his own investment people are playing that routine with inside information. For us in the PTA community, we shouldn’t be concerned, except to the extent that he’s creating negative vibes that keep many investors out of stocks and holding cash, in otherwise favourable world economic conditions.

Day by Day… Here’s how last week played out on a daily basis. 1.4%% over the week on TSX stocks isn’t bad. The S&P 500 finished just 0.5% up after more robust gains earlier in the week.
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PTP… The S&P 500 APAR (capital gains speedometer) finally turned slightly positive, but the S&P/TSX Composite Index counterpart rose to +18%. The PTP score retreated but you have to consider the small pool of stocks in the portfolio. Ups and downs will be quite severe, until some stability returns to the markets and we can start investing seriously again.

PTA Perspective… Seasonality Update – Spring 2018
Seasonality effects (also called calendar effects) refer to patterns of rising prices in a major stock index, a sector of stocks or even individual stocks that repeat consistently at certain times of the year. We have always questioned basing an entire investment strategy on such findings, but given the probabilistic nature of the underlying data, they shouldn’t be ignored either. Once again we try to put seasonality in perspective… talking about the benefits, and the absurdity of taking the approach to its ultimate extreme.

SYNOPSIS

Perhaps we’re dwelling too much on the trade war issue, but if that matter escalates, stocks will plunge across the board… especially US equities. Posturing about “strategic air strikes” on Syria is almost irrelevant, since Trump and Obama and probably Bush before him have been bombing Syrian civilians continuously for many years with pilotless drones. It’s not news that affects markets anymore. Neither is Trump’s “mission accomplished” tweet. But, as per the cartoon, Trump is bringing the trade war into the US with his latest attacks on Amazon and other major American corporations. It’s ironic that he thinks that he can handicap US corporations dependent on international trade and “make them great again” at the same time.

Day by Day… Here’s how last week played out on a daily basis. 2% over the week on US stocks isn’t bad. The S&P/TSX Composite Index finished slightly higher.

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PTP… The S&P 500 APAR remained negative after last week’s trading, but the S&P/TSX Composite Index counterpart flipped positive from -4% a week earlier.. The PTP score had another boost, in spite of the fact that we were down to only two holdings in the PTP. We added two more Friday afternoon, but there wasn’t time for them to have much of an impact on our 207%… double last week’s reading.

PTA Perspective… ETF Update – Spring 2018
While we favour individual stocks over ETFs, we know that we have members/subscribers who want to know how to use them for maximum advantage. So, like this week, we have occasional updates to talk about the latest ETF news, opinions and strategies. We even propose a hybrid strategy of trading both individual stocks and ETFs.

SYNOPSIS

Remember Trump’s entire first year as president, when he did absolutely nothing? The stock markets rose almost continuously, because investors had nothing to worry about! Well, we can now see what happens when he does so-called “presidential” stuff! But don’t worry… we’ll guide you into foreign investment opportunities, while the US markets unravel.

Day by Day… Here’s how last week played out on a daily basis. There was some hope that at least US stocks would finish the week higher. Then Friday happened.

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PTP… The S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index APARs remained negative after last week’s trading. The PTP score had a nice improvement, in spite of the fact that we’re down to only two holdings in the PTP.

PTA Perspective… 2018 Q1 Review – Global Perspective
We extend our coverage of Q1 2018 to look at the global equities markets. Is it time to pull the plug on North American stocks and look elsewhere? We’ll let you know in this week’s full edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

Isn’t that always the way it goes, every day? Apparently the media can’t grasp how stupid they sound with these headlines.

PTP… The S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index APARs remained negative after the past for-day trading week. The PTP score fell further as we sold on sell-signals and resisted all urges to buy replacements. We’re almost 90% in cash at this point.

Day by Day… Here’s how last week played out on a daily basis. The percentage changes in the actual indexes are shown relative to the previous Friday close. US stocks fared a little better than Canadian stocks last week with 2% gains.

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PTA Perspective… 2018 – Q1 Review – North America
It’s quarterly review time again and Q1 2018 looks pretty ugly. After a strong surge in January, the “correction”, which no one predicted, happened during a backdrop of uniformly strong economic news worldwide. We unravel all of the details for you in this week’s full edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

Investor Confidence… The March 2018 results for the State Street Investor Confidence Index have just been posted. This is not an opinion poll. The SSICI is a measure of actual money flows between equities (higher numbers) and safer income securities orchestrated by institutional investors (the “smart” money). The Global Investor Confidence Index increased to 111.9, up 4.8 points from February’s revised reading of 107.1.

As usual we provide more detail on the regional ICI’s in the Investor Confidence section of TrendWatch Weekly.