SYNOPSIS

Winter Stock Olympics anyone? Freestyle version! Some stability has come back to the markets, but this isn’t likely to be a so-called “V-Bottom” where stocks bounce back as fast as they fell. Those a very rare occurrences. Like any sharp, sudden, painful wound, it takes time to heal.

PTP… After two weeks of losses, our portfolio has stabilized a bit, and the PTP Score actually gained to 125% from 81% previously. The two benchmarks improved too, with the S&P 500 APAR turning positive, while its S&P/TSX Composite counterpart remained on the negative side.
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Last Week in the Major Indexes… We had some nice improvements over the past week, but they were only large enough to nudge a few major indexes back to the positive side. You see the specifics in this weeks full-edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

PTA Perspective… Twits Who Trade Using Social Media

In this context we don’t intend to use the term “twit” in the original pejorative sense of “idiot”; because there is already an established term “StockTwit” that refers to an investor who publishes, reads and digests opinions about stocks via Twitter. These opinions and short bits of information are widely shared, as you’ll learn in this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly. We also explore numerous other financial services that exploit Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, and even social investment services that predate the Internet.

SYNOPSIS

Yes, we’re still “really high” with respect to recent all-time highs, but a set-back like last week can make things feel that we’re in a downward spiral. It’s time to pause and reflect, instead of rushing for the exit doors.

PTP… For a second week, we took losses just like everyone else. This time though we took major losses on a minority VIX inverse play that has been incredibly profitable in the past. This past week we lost 90% before we could hit the sell button. We’ll say more about that later, but our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) was chopped way down to 81% from 329% a week earlier. But you can still compare our results with the S&P 500 stocks, now to -38% from 16% a week earlier, and the S&P/TSX Composite stocks APAR, at -50% from -30% last time.
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Last Week in the Major Indexes… It was negative signs across the board for the major North American indexes once again. The Russell 2000 at an unchanged at 0.0% trend and 0.0% weekly performance was the leader of the pack.

PTA Perspective… CORRECTION! What That Means & What To Do About It
They say that a “healthy correction” is a fall of 10-15% from recent highs. Because it’s “healthy”, that means stocks will charge higher again. But then they say that a decline of 20% is a “bear market”, and stocks will continue to fall for an indefinite period of time… perhaps years. Hmm! Just 5% difference? We help you unravel this total nonsense this week, and remind you how media-induced hysteria could be exaggerating all negative moves in the equities markets.

SYNOPSIS

It’s not that the stock markets are always a roller coaster ride. It’s just that a plunge like last week’s after an amazing run up earlier in January can be a little unnerving. After all we tend to remember shocks to the system, better than mundane steady gains. And we experience and remember losses more than similar-sized profits. Don’t panic. Many analysts have been predicting (or hoping for?) a “healthy correction”, before the markets can take another run upward.

PTP… Naturally, we took losses last week just like everyone else. We had some sell signals early in the week, and acted on them. Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) was chopped in half over the week, but, hey, compare our performance with the S&P 500 stocks, now at 16% from 66% a week earlier, and the S&P/TSX Composite stocks APAR, a -30% now from +14% last time.
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Last Week in the Major Indexes… It was negative signs across the board for the major North American indexes, with the exception of the unchanged Russell 2000.

PTA Perspective… CSE – The Exchange for Entrepreneurs
Hidden in the shadows behind the Toronto Stock Exchange and the TSX Venture Exchange is another small independent competitor called the Canadian Securities Exchange. It may be small but its growing rapidly. Since it’s largely ignored by the business media, we introduced it to you back in a December 2016 edition of TrendWatch Weekly. Billing itself as the “Exchange for Entrepreneurs”, it mainly provides a trading home for startup companies seeking public capital. In the world of large, medium and small caps, most of these companies would be considered micro-caps. Nonetheless, for investors willing to take a chance on speculative ventures, the CSE deserves more of your attention. We extend our coverage of the CSE this week, noting the progress that has been made in the past year or so.

SYNOPSIS

PTA Perspective… Momentum ETFs – Go with the Flow!
Our mathematical framework, relative trend analysis™ (RTA), is within the category of the momentum investing. Stocks on a winning streak often continue that winning streak relative to stocks that do not. It’s simple and academic research proven. So, it’s interesting to start to see ETFs appearing based on momentum investing. That means that the underlying index starts with a constituent list where all stocks are trending upward. We investigate what that means in terms finding better ETFs, if you’re thus inclined, and being better informed of the implications overall.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) pulled back to 733% this past week from a record 828% a week earlier. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR fell even further to 14%, while the S&P 500 APAR is up to 66% from 58% a week earlier.

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Last Week in the Major Indexes… It was a great week for one-week gains on most of the major indexes with numerous gains of 2% or higher over the week. The laggards continue to be the S&P/TSX Small Cap Index, the S&P/TSX Composite Index and the Russell 2000.

Investor Confidence… The January 2018 results for the State Street Investor Confidence Index have just been posted. This is not an opinion poll. The SSICI is a measure of actual money flows between equities (higher numbers) and safer income securities among institutional investors (the “smart” money). The Global Investor Confidence Index increased to 102.1, up 6.4 points from December’s revised reading of 95.7.

As usual we provide more detail on the regional ICI’s in the Investor Confidence section of TrendWatch Weekly.