SYNOPSIS

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) improved again to 175% from 144% a week earlier. The S&P 500 APAR and the S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR both fell a few points from where they were last week.

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Last Week in the Sectors… Information Technology is once again at the top of the sector rankings, with Industrials and Financial Services not far behind. As usual there are some differences in the sector performances between the S&P stocks and those in the S&P/TSX Composite Index.

PTA Perspective… Currency Considerations
For many, Canadian/US exchange rates only come up when planning a vacation or doing a bit of cross-border shopping (in person or online). A stronger Canadian dollar means you can buy more when you’re south of the border. The same applies to stocks, but you generally keep merchandize, and watch your trip to Florida expire. With stocks, you need to sell them eventually… at a profit or loss. With US stocks that means that you may have some good news or bad news over and above your nominal capital gain or loss. If the Canadian dollar is stronger when you sell, you lose; if it’s weaker, you may get a nice bonus. This week, we walk you through just how much difference trading US stocks (as a Canadian) can mean to your bottom line.

SYNOPSIS

There was a time when we earned amazing profits from companies who shovelled coal out of the ground. There are two kinds. The softer stuff is great for burning to generate electricity. There was a time not long ago when 75% of all electricity in the US came from burning coal. That meant that every electric car was in fact a coal-powered car! The harder variety of coal is used to make steel worldwide. Demand for coal for electricity has fallen dramatically since less environmentally threatening sources have come online, but coal is nonetheless still a profitable commodity. Should you invest? No, probably not. The leading coal ETF, VanEck Vectors Coal ETF (KOL), has a trend value of just 0.3% with 23% consistency. There is an underlying message here, however. Ethical issues should not play a role in your investments. If coal were the best place to invest your money right now, you should take advantage of that.

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Last Week in the Major Indexes… The Russell 2000 Index finally lost it’s leading spot in the major index rankings to the good old Dow Industrial average again. Both the S&P/TSX Small Cap Index and S&P/TSX Venture Index declined over 1% last week, while the other indexes had one week gains.

Last Week in the Sectors… Health Care declined from the top of the trend rankings to #9, while #5 Industrials took on the #1 trend position. Utilities improved from #10 to #5.

PTA Perspective… Fall 2017 ETF Update

While we’re inclined to be stock pickers rather than ETF investors, the same relative trend analysis™ (RTA) methodology can be applied to both. This week we review the state of the ETF industry and offer some guidelines on how to use them. We stick with equity ETFs this time, rather than the more esoteric exchange traded products (ETPs), but with 2000+ of them available in North America, that should be enough!

SYNOPSIS

This cartoon may be too scary to make you laugh out loud, but it is worth considering. How are the “make America great again (MAGA)” voters assimilating the fact that their president has done absolutely nothing in almost a year now to improve their financial situation? In fact he’s accomplished nothing at all on any front! But I understand that he’s still golfing regularly. There are still reasons for the stock markets to continue higher, but that’s in spite of the worst president in American history, not because of him. Meanwhile most of the stock markets worldwide are outperforming US equities. We worry that the MAGA folks won’t accept the fact that they were wrong, and seek violent means to express themselves instead. We’re not sure the markets would shrug that off.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) improved again to 123% from 86% a week earlier. The S&P 500 APAR and the S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR both dropped a few points from where they were last week.

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Last Week in the Sectors… The bottom line is to avoid Telecommunication Services, Consumer Staples and Utilities within both the S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500. Beyond that you’ll need to look at the differences between sector preferences in Canada vs the USA.

PTA Perspective… Crash Course — Remembering October 19, 1987 (30th Year Anniversary Edition)

This is indeed the 30th anniversary of the worst crash in stock market history. On October 19th, yes, a single day, the DJIA plunged 23%. If you thought 2008 was a stock market, crash you have absolutely no idea what a stock market crash is. And I doubt if any of our readers were active investors in 1929. If so, we congratulate you on trading well into 100+ years of age. So, for all practical purposes, there really was only one stock market crash, and we walk you through it. All investors need to know what a real market crash is like; and hope that you’ll never, ever see one for real in your lifetime.

SYNOPSIS

It’s totally hilarious how so many are attributing the continuing stream of new highs in the major American stock indexes to Donald Trump’s presidency. I can understand how this delusional president would make that claim himself, but why would anyone intelligent do that? As you’ll learn today, the vast majority of stock markets around the world are outperforming the major US indexes, since his election. It’s a “Trump Curse”, not a “Trump Trade.. But then, the US biz media never look beyond US borders. End of story.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) shot up to 86% from 55% a week earlier. The S&P 500 APAR and the S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR both stayed within a few points of where they were last week.

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Last Week in the Sectors… Among S&P/TSX Composite Index stocks, Consumer Discretionary and Health Care stocks are now the leading groups. Among the S&P 500 sectors Energy, Financial Services, Industrials, Materials and Information Technology are almost tied for leading performance.

PTA Perspective… 2017 Q3 Review – Global Perspective

The second part of our Q3 2017 review takes a global perspective. We introduce you to the largest stock markets in the world, then provide a tour of the best performing markets regardless of size… year-to-date, and based on current trend values. And, finally, we remind you how to profit from foreign markets with the ETF and ADR trend data in our Data & Charts Workbooks.

SYNOPSIS

Well, we’re now ¾’s of the way through 2017. How are your profits stacking up? If you’ve been following our ProfiTrend Advantage strategy, perhaps combined with your own trading tactics, you’ve probably done quite well. If you went with the financial advisor in the cartoon above, probably not! And yet thousands of people every year entrust their money to a financial advisor just like that one!

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) improved to 55% from 41% a week earlier. The S&P 500 APAR and the S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR both rose as well… about 5% each.

Last Week in the Major Indexes… The Russell 2000 Index has been the star for the past couple weeks. US small caps are back in vogue; even as Canadian small caps wither on the vine. Small caps generally offer higher returns, albeit with higher risk. Perhaps that’s exactly what investors want right now.

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PTA Perspective… 2017 Q3 Review – North America – Major Indexes & Sectors

Yes, another quarter of the year has passed, and we have the first of our two part coverage. Generally speaking there were improvements in all major indexes, relative to the year-to-date figures at the end of June. Look for more details in the main body of TrendWatch Weekly.

Investor Confidence… The September results for the State Street Investor Confidence Index have just been released this week. The small dip was mainly due to a large decline in confidence in North American equities.

As usual we provide more detail on the regional ICI’s in the full edition of TrendWatch Weekly.