SYNOPSIS

Generally speaking, the markets are still in a “neutral zone” with no clear message about whether the next big move will be up or down. In spite of some wild swings week-over-week, we basically have 50% of all stocks trending lower and 50% trending higher. Those climbing are climbing without much conviction (few have large trend values), and the same is true on the downside. Sitting on cash may not be a bad idea right now, or look for opportunities outside of North America via ETFs or ADRs.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) shrunk from 57% a week ago to 3% now. The S&P 500 APAR is pretty close to zero, and the S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR improved from +1% the previous week to +2%.

Last Week in the Major Indexes… Most of the major North American indexes that we track rose last week… about as much as they fell the week before (a little less than 1% in most cases).

Last Week in the Sectors… There are still no “stand out” sectors, other than Utilities… hardly something to get excited about!
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PTA Perspective… Ratio Charting for Index Comparisons
This week’s perspective piece is a short discussion of ratio charting for comparing two indexes or a stock vs an index. (There are also numerous other applications.) For longer term historical data, this can be a better approach than plotting separate lines with separate vertical scales.

Investor Confidence… The August results for the State Street Investor Confidence Index have just been released. The Global Investor Confidence Index decreased to 106.8, down 2.1 points from July’s revised reading of 108.9. The small decline was mainly due to declining interest in European stocks.

As usual we provide more detail on the regional ICI’s in the full edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

North American stock prices declined again last week, after a sharp decline the week before. Volatility spiked up again to about 16, before settling back to 14 by the end of Friday trading. While we’ve been waiting for more evidence of either a serious bear move, or a rebound to new highs again, we’ll be covering the marijuana stocks theme again this week. While waiting for official legalization of cannabis for recreational use in Canada next July (tentatively), we may actually be seeing an oversupply of the product short-term; and the stock prices of the publicly-traded major growers seem to be reflecting this (on average).

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) jumped to 57%. The S&P 500 APAR turned more negative, and the S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR improved from a negative -7% the previous week to +1%.

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Last Week in the Major Indexes… All of the major North American indexes that we track fell last week, except for the S&P/TSX Venture Index, which rose almost 1%.

Last Week in the Sectors… Once again only the Utilities group have a positive trend value of any significance among both S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index stocks.

PTA Perspective… Marijuana Stocks Update
We promised that we wouldn’t bombard you with a lot pot stocks reporting, when we first introduced that theme to our web site last November. We decided to offer coverage on that niche market at that time as an experiment in following an equity marketplace in its early stages. (You have access to our weekly marijuana stock trend updates in the Data & Charts Workbooks.) We provided a minor update in early June to discuss the Horizons BetaPro Marijuana stocks ETF (HMMJ)… the first of its kind in the world. This week we provide a bit more background on what’s been happening with HMMJ, and the pot stocks market overall. We also caution you about the get-rich-quick fraudsters out there, and let you know more about the reality of cannabis stocks as an investment.

SYNOPSIS

Well… we finally got some volatility last week, but not in a good way! The markets shrugged off Kim Jong-Un’s anti-US rhetoric earlier in the week, but took notice when the orange menace threaten nuclear annihilation. Stocks took a plunge, and VIX spiked as high as 16.3 on Friday. It didn’t help when Trump failed to criticize a significant part of his voter base (the KKK and neo-Nazis) in the Charlottesville incident. As I finish this edition of TrendWatch Weekly on Monday, it appears that sanity has prevailed (for now) and the markets are rebounding. VIX is back down to 12.4.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) fell to 15%, while both the the S&P 500 APAR, and the S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR turned negative.
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Last Week in the Major Indexes… All of the major North American indexes that we track fell last week… from -0.4% (Venture Exchange) to -2.7% (Russell 2000). The “major majors” all fell -1.1% to -1.6%. Even the S&P 1200 Global Index was off -1.6%.

Last Week in the Sectors… Just one sector (Utilities) still has a positive trend value among both S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index stocks.

PTA Perspective… Market Trends over Time
This week we take a closer look at our “trends of trends” charts that we update every weekend in the S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index Data & Charts Workbooks in the member web site. While the contents of those charts are basically self-evident, there are patterns in the charts that you might be overlooking. You will also look at the charts differently if you want to know the odds that it’s good to be invested in stocks (vs cash) or looking to see how fast you can expect to make money short-term.

SYNOPSIS

It was another lacklustre week, historically low on volatility… what many call the summer doldrums. And yet more new highs on the Dow Industrial Average. Trading volume was low, and we’ve been relying on quarterly earnings reports for any spark of life in the markets. Apple Inc (AAPL), for instance, had a nice one-day price boost of 6% the day after it reported its latest earnings last week. Now, let’s put that 6% in perspective. That’s an extra $48 billion added to Apple’s market cap in one day! And that $48 billion increase alone is larger than the entire market cap of Ford Motor, and 390 other companies in the S&P 500! Apple is poised to become the world’s first trillion dollar company, perhaps within the next year. That’s big!

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) dropped to 55% from 73% a week earlier. That’s still ahead of the S&P 500 APAR at 13%, and the S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR which turned negative again at -1%.

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Last Week in the Sectors… Just 5 of 10 sectors have positive trend values among the S&P 500 companies. It’s 5 of 11 for the S&P/TSX Composite Index. All trend values in both markets are disappointingly close to zero right now. It’s a stretch to recommend one sector over another.

PTA Trend/Consistency Lookup Console Now Available! Last week we announced a new item to the submenu of Toolbox at the (members only) ProfiTrend Advantage web site. It’s labelled T/C Console in the submenu, and it takes you to a page where you can look up the trend & consistency values for a subset of all of the Premium Services Databases without paying the Premium Service fees. 10,000+ equities! We hope that you’ve tried it out, and find it useful. We could definitely use some feedback, so try it soon, if you haven’t already. If popular, the platform that we’ve used for the T/C Console may also pave the way for us to add other interactive tools at the web site… the kind that we currently use on our premises on stand-alone computers.

PTA Perspective… Do New Highs on the Dow Mean Anything?
With the latest streak of all time highs, especially in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, we’ve decided to have a look at whether this should be a reason to worry or rejoice or neither.. because it could be coincidental. The best evidence we share with you today suggests more profits ahead!

SYNOPSIS

It’s so good to see major US stock indexes performing near record highs, but we’re kind of just hovering at those levels. Each new high isn’t a big leap forward, it’s a snail’s pace increase. That’s OK, but we’d rather ignore the “record highs” nonsense and see the market advance substantially on a weekly basis, as would be the case in a truly robust bull market.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) edged up to 73% from 69% a week earlier. That’s still ahead of the S&P 500 APAR which fell to 21%, and the S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR which finally is positive again at +2%.

Last Week in the Sectors… Nine of ten of the S&P 500 sector trend values are positive now, while only three of those the the S&P/TSX Composite Index are. In spite of that, even the US sector trend values are drifting down toward zero, relative to a week ago.
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PTA Trend/Consistency Lookup Console Now Available! This past week we’ve added a new item to the submenu of Toolbox at the (members only) ProfiTrend Advantage web site. It’s labelled T/C Console in the submenu, and it takes you to a page where you can look up the trend & consistency values for a subset of all of the Premium Services Databases without paying the Premium Service fees. 10,000+ equities. Try it out, and let us know what you think. Instructions are provided in this week’s full edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

Investor Confidence… The July results for the State Street Investor Confidence Index were released this past week. The Global Investor Confidence Index increased to 108.9, up 7.9 points from June’s revised reading of 101.

As usual we provide more detail on the regional ICI’s in the full edition of TrendWatch Weekly.