SYNOPSIS

There is actually no evidence yet that we’re anywhere near having a full-fledged correction in stocks yet. That would mean a 10%+ decline from recent highs, and several of the major indexes are still hitting new record highs almost every week. A correction will happen eventually, and as with the cartoon, we won’t know at that time whether or not the correction will continue downward into a full bear market (-20% or more), nor will we know how long that might last. Fortunately, with the ProfiTrend Advantage and the underlying relative trend analysis™ (RTA) methodology, it won’t matter to us. We’ll know what to sell and when before the ship goes down.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) shot up to 104% over the past week. The S&P 500 APAR fell to 14%, but the S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR factually shed its previous loss to end up at 5% as of week end.

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Last Week in the Major Indexes… The Nasdaq revival after the slump two Fridays ago really took hold last week as the Nasdaq gained 1.8% on a one-week basis. Two top Canadian indexes also rose about +1.0% too, after many weeks of declining readings.

Last Week in the Sectors… Health Care and Information Technology everyone! Look at the full edition of TrendWatch Weekly for more details.

Featured Charts… The Achilles Heel of Relative Trend Analysis™ (RTA)
In our new “featured charts” section, we discuss a situation where our trend and consistency values might (occasionally) lead you astray, if you blindly pick your stocks based on our numbers alone. That’s something we discourage anyway, but we want you to understand why some trend values will sometimes look unrealistically high. We use recent examples, and remind you that our RTA trend screener should be just one component of a do-it-yourselfer’s home trading system.

SYNOPSIS

By now, just about everyone knows about Bitcoin… the so-called “cryptocurrency” that is not bound to any country or economy. It is it’s own entity. Transactions are highly automated, yet it still fluctuates in value relative to other real currencies. There are some advantages to holding some Bitcoin, as you would hold cash or gold, in addition to your stocks and bonds. This week we review the recent rapid appreciation in the value of Bitcoin. Perhaps there’s room for some cryptocurrency in your portfolio. Look for more on this in our Featured Chart section.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) dropped just a point from last week to 67%. The S&P 500 APAR held steady at 20%, but the S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR fell dramatically to -11%.
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Last Week in the Indexes… The major Canadian indexes continue to trend lower. Among the US counterparts, Nasdaq continued to lose ground. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is now the trend leader among the seven major indexes that we track.

Seasonality… While our calendar effects expert keeps reminding us that we’re in the unfavourable six-month period for stocks (May-Oct), he is also good enough to point out the periods during the unfavourable period, when specific sectors and sub-sectors tend to outperform. Late June through mid-September are looking good for Biotech. More on that in the complete edition.

SYNOPSIS

It was a fairly mediocre week, until tech stocks sold off on Friday. But, taking all sectors into consideration, it was just a mediocre week! There were no obvious repercussions that one could associate with the British election, the Comey testimony, or the mixed bag of economic news last week.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) dropped to 68% from 86% a week earlier. Both the S&P 500 APAR and the TSX APAR fell three percentage points to the levels you see below.

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Last Week in the Indexes… The major Canadian indexes continue to trend lower. Among the US counterparts, Nasdaq took a major hit (specifically on Friday), and there was a rally in US small caps, represented by the Russell 2000. That index now leads our set of seven indexes on a trend basis.

Featured Chart… Information Technology Stock Sell-Off!

We continue with our newish “Featured Chart” segment, by looking at last Friday’s Information Technology stock sharp drop this past week. Is it temporary or the beginning of a bubble bursting, as happened at the end of the 90s? We share some thoughts.

So far, it’s definitely not enough to justify panic selling, even if June typically is the worst month of the year for Information Technology equities.

SYNOPSIS

This cartoon clearly illustrates that we would all do extremely well with time machines. But it also hints that static forecasts are pretty useless. Any analyst might say that the S&P 500 will be up by 6.2% by year end, or a particular stock will double in six months. If it happens, it’s totally coincidental; and you’ll easily find that no one gets anything even remotely correct with forecasts like that twice. But dynamic analysis is a different story. We know how fast stocks and indexes are rising right now; and we know from academic studies that stocks and indexes trending up will continue to do so… well above what would be expected by chance. Fool proof? No, but we don’t need to predict target prices and dates. We go with the flow and exit when the trend peters out. How simple is that?

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) rnudged up a couple percentage points to 86%. The S&P 500 APAR gained another 10% to 23%, while the TSX APAR finished only slightly higher from last week at 5%.

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Last Week in the Indexes… All of the US major indexes charged ahead again last week, while the Canadian indexes continued to fall. The S&P/TSX Composite Index managed a tiny gain, but the small cap indexes kept falling.

Investor Confidence… The May results for the State Street Investor Confidence Index were released this past week. The Global ICI increased to 102.5, up 5.1 points from April’s revised reading of 97.4. The improvement in sentiment was driven by an increase in the North American ICI from 95.1 to 104.1

As usual we chart the regional results as well in the full edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

Seasonality… We have a new 1-minute video from Brooke Thackray on the anticipated downside in Information Technology stocks during June. Tech stocks have been on a roll lately, but you might want to postpone any new purchases until the beginning of July.