SYNOPSIS

This cartoon captures so much of our perspective on what we call “BizTV” or the more inclusive “BizMedia”. It doesn’t matter what channel or online outlet. It’s all the same. They assume that the public need explanations, so they make stuff up on the fly for why the indexes are moving up or down. The cartoon caption says it all… they “have no @#&? clue”. If everyone ignored such fabrications, they would be harmless; but those investors who accept such explanations as credible may make money-losing mistakes in their regular trading decisions. They don’t deserve that!

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) ramped up some more to 84%. The S&P 500 APAR gained 12% to 13%, while the TSX APAR fell to 3% from 13% a week earlier..
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Last Week in the Indexes… Most of the 7 major indexes we track here were up at least +1% over the past week, although the S&P/TSX Composite Index and the S&P/TSX Small Cap Index suffered losses. Both of those indexes now have negative trend values.

PTA Premium Subscribers… ETF database re-worked

We revamped the ETF database during the past week… trimming all entries that haven’t traded in at least a month, and adding a whole bunch of new ones. Some are so new that we won’t have enough data to have stable trend & consistency vales for a month or two. After deletions and additions our ETF database is up 230 entries to 1688.

SYNOPSIS

We love to find cartoons that encourage our relative trend analysis™ (RTA) approach. Everything is relative to everything else that is going on. That’s why US media sources are so dangerous, when they imply that all markets in the world are focussed on the US. We provide the numbers. The US media only provide fictional speculation. Last week we saw one headline implying that Asian markets the day before fell because of something Trump said today, and another one that proclaimed that the Brazil markets collapsed because of Trump firing the FBI director. Believe me, Brazil has it’s own problems, and most Brazilians couldn’t give a shit about what’s happening in the US. Even bikini waxes are more relevant there.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) is till holding steady at 66%, close to the levels of the past two weeks. The S&P 500 APAR dropped again to just 1%, while the TSX APAR is unchanged from a week earlier.

Last Week in the Indexes… All of the seven major indexes that we discuss weekly were unchanged or negative on a one week %-change basis. Only the large cap US indexes — Nasdaq Composite Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and S&P 500 — still have positive trend values.
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PTA Premium Subscribers… Databases being re-worked

We minimize updates for our Premium Service subscribers, because they’re a fairly small minority of PTA Members. We know that they’re the number crunchers, who probably don’t need our direct support anyway. Anyway, just a quick not to say that we’re well into our quarterly revisions. That means purging out the database records (whether US, Canadian or ETF- All North American), and adding new issues. We’re done with Canada for a few months, and have just recently done a major purge & add to the US records. We’re now up to nearly 10,000 US entries with complete Trend & Consistency numbers every weekend. ETFs are up next. You’d think they would be more stable, but ETP providers are actually quick to drop ETPs that don’t sell, yet will introduce new ones on speculation that they might sell. More on this after our next round of edits.

Seasonality… US Treasuries

Our go-to guy for calendar effects may be dumping all equities until November, but he’s still talking a good story about US Treasury Bonds. It’s embedded in the full version of TrendWatch Weekly, but you can also see it via this link.

SYNOPSIS

I wish we had this much excitement in the stock market! Not so, so far this year. Volatility (as measured by VIX) briefly hit another all-time low last week. No matter how much unjustified hysteria the biz media try to generate about geopolitical issues, investors apparently are getting quite good at ignoring it. Well done investors! Unfortunately, it takes volatility to move the markets substantially higher too, so we’re still stuck in this sideways limbo.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) declined slightly this past week to 65% from 67% a week earlier. The S&P 500 APAR dropped 10 points, while the TSX APAR improved a few points from a week earlier. a week earlier.

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Last Week in the Indexes… Even the beaten down Canadian small cap indexes improved on a one-week basis, although the S&P/TSX Venture Index and S&P/TSX Small Cap Index trend values remain negative. The tech heavy Nasdaq remains our major index trend leader for now.

PTA Perspective… Re-Shaping The ProfiTrend Advantage!

In our efforts for continuous improvement of the services under the ProfiTrend umbrella, we like to re-think our approach every quarter or two and look for improvements. This is one of those times. Recognizing that more isn’t necessarily better, and that timely is more important than a couple days late, we’ll be making some changes that we hope you’ll appreciate. Details to follow in the full edition of TrendWatch Weekly. But for now, welcome to Sunday delivery on this fine Mothers Day.

SYNOPSIS

Volatility (as measured by VIX) briefly hit an all-time low last week. Investors are totally oblivious to geopolitical issues, and perhaps they should be. Such events are simply distractions from the real science of investing. Did the winner of the French election on Sunday affect your stock picks this week? I know it won’t affect those involving the ProfiTrend Portfolio. Closer to home, this most recent round of quarterly earnings reports has been phenomenal. S&P 500 earnings grew by 13% in the first quarter, the index’s fastest year-over-year growth since the third quarter of 2011, according to Goldman Sachs. About 50% of firms have beaten earnings forecasts, above the long-term average of 46%. Further, 41% of companies have exceeded revenue estimates, the most positive ratio of surprises in almost six years. A weaker dollar has also contributed to investor optimism. The US Dollar Index has fallen to its lowest level since right after the US presidential election, down by 4.5% from a 14-year high reached December 28.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) continued to improve this past week to 67% from 55% a week earlier. The S&P 500 APAR improved by a few more points, while the TSX APAR declined to 7% from 13% a week earlier.

Last Week in the Indexes… The Canadian small cap indexes (S&P/TSX Small Cap Index and S&P/TSX Venture Index) continued to decline substantially last week, while most of the US indexes improved between 1.5% and 2.3% over the week.
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PTA Perspective… Contracts for Difference (CFDs)… Are They Right for You?

Almost everyone knows what buying and selling stocks are all about; and probably most investors know that there are other ways to trade stock indexes, commodities, currencies, bonds, and more exotic financial instruments through something called futures and options. What about CFDs? …contracts for difference? Although these instruments have been available since the 90s, we rarely encounter anyone who’s heard of them. That, in spite of the fact that they’re enormously popular in 26 countries. Why? Because the USA is not one of those 26 countries! Since Americans consider the US the centre of the universe, the US biz media won’t even consider talking about them. They might as well be imaginary! And since the Canadian biz media take their lead from south of the border, Canadians don’t hear much about CFDs either. Nonetheless, you should know what they’re about, whether you invest in them or not. That’s this week’s topic.

Seasonality… We think that we did a nice job of debunking the proposition that you should stay out of the stock markets in May through October in our report two weeks ago. All the same we like to direct readers to counterarguments that are well researched and reported. For that reason, this week we link you to Brooke Thackray’s recent 12 page report documenting his bias toward staying out of the markets until November. We’ll let you decide for yourself.

SYNOPSIS

Volatility (as measured by VIX) briefly hit an all-time low last week. Investors are totally oblivious to geopolitical issues, and perhaps they should be. Such events are simply distractions from the real science of investing. Did the winner of the French election on Sunday affect your stock picks this week? I know it won’t affect those involving the ProfiTrend Portfolio. Closer to home, this most recent round of quarterly earnings reports has been phenomenal. S&P 500 earnings grew by 13% in the first quarter, the index’s fastest year-over-year growth since the third quarter of 2011, according to Goldman Sachs. About 50% of firms have beaten earnings forecasts, above the long-term average of 46%. Further, 41% of companies have exceeded revenue estimates, the most positive ratio of surprises in almost six years. A weaker dollar has also contributed to investor optimism. The US Dollar Index has fallen to its lowest level since right after the US presidential election, down by 4.5% from a 14-year high reached December 28.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) continued to improve this past week to 67% from 55% a week earlier. The S&P 500 APAR improved by a few more points, while the TSX APAR declined to 7% from 13% a week earlier.

Last Week in the Indexes… The Canadian small cap indexes (S&P/TSX Small Cap Index and S&P/TSX Venture Index) continued to decline substantially last week, while most of the US indexes improved between 1.5% and 2.3% over the week.
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PTA Perspective… Contracts for Difference (CFDs)… Are They Right for You?

Almost everyone knows what buying and selling stocks are all about; and probably most investors know that there are other ways to trade stock indexes, commodities, currencies, bonds, and more exotic financial instruments through something called futures and options. What about CFDs? …contracts for difference? Although these instruments have been available since the 90s, we rarely encounter anyone who’s heard of them. That, in spite of the fact that they’re enormously popular in 26 countries. Why? Because the USA is not one of those 26 countries! Since Americans consider the US the centre of the universe, the US biz media won’t even consider talking about them. They might as well be imaginary! And since the Canadian biz media take their lead from south of the border, Canadians don’t hear much about CFDs either. Nonetheless, you should know what they’re about, whether you invest in them or not. That’s this week’s topic.

Seasonality… We think that we did a nice job of debunking the proposition that you should stay out of the stock markets in May through October in our report two weeks ago. All the same we like to direct readers to counterarguments that are well researched and reported. For that reason, this week we link you to Brooke Thackray’s recent 12 page report documenting his bias toward staying out of the markets until November. We’ll let you decide for yourself.

SYNOPSIS

Volatility (as measured by VIX) is back to near all time lows. Investors are apparently unconcerned about there being a loose cannon in the White House. It’s as if they expect him to be gone very soon. Perhaps they’re right. Trump set two records in his first 100 days in office: (1) First US president to not pass a single piece of legislation during that period, and (2) He holds the lowest approval ratings of any US president after 100 days in office at 39%. Corporate tax reductions, if they ever happen, may finally boost stock prices, but who knows when that will happen. Meanwhile Canadian stocks and the Loonie are suffering from Trump’s tariff threats.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) continued to improve this past week to 55%. The S&P 500 APAR improved by a few points, while the TSX APAR declined by a point over the previous week.

Last Week in the Indexes… The Canadian small cap indexes (S&P/TSX Small Cap Index and S&P/TSX Venture Index) continued to decline substantially last week, while most of the US indexes improved between 1.5% and 2.3% over the week.
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PTA Perspective… Spreadsheet Tips & Tricks for the Do-It-Yourself Investor

This week we diverge from studying the markets to discuss some useful, but relatively little known, techniques that should help investors make the most of using spreadsheets for investment planning and tracking. Even those using more advanced investment analysis software should find something useful here, since even high-end data modelling often starts with spreadsheet files.