SYNOPSIS

Some of the “big news” last week was that volatility (specifically VIX) shot up to a high of around 16. Yep, that could spook a stampede out of stocks alright… unless you remember that the long term average for VIX is 16. Volatility has returned to normal after being well below normal since last November.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) finally turned positive again this past week. The S&P 500 APAR turned positive as well, compared to last week, while the TSX APAR declined slightly.

Last Week in the Indexes… The Canadian small cap indexes (S&P/TSX Small Cap Index and S&P/TSX Venture Index) turned sharply lower last week, while most of the other indexes improved. The Russell 2000 rose almost 3% over the week, proving once again that US small caps can’t be compared with the pool of Canadian small caps.

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PTA Perspective… Sell in May & Go Away! REALLY?

There is some evidence that over a very long time an investor can obtain a better return in the stock market by only holding stocks in November through October, than being invested year-round. We have a quick look at the evidence supporting that claim, then tear it apart.

Investor Confidence… The April results for the State Street Investor Confidence Index were released today. The Global ICI increased to 99.5, up 2.6 points from March’s revised reading of 96.9.

We chart the regional results as well in the full edition of TrendWatch Weekly. Teaser: All regions were up except Asia.

SYNOPSIS

Some of the “big news” last week was that volatility (specifically VIX) shot up to a high of around 16. Yep, that could spook a stampede out of stocks alright… unless you remember that the long term average for VIX is 16. Volatility has returned to normal after being well below normal since last November.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) continued lower this past week. The two benchmark APARs declined too… with the S&P 500 APAR turning negative as well. Misery loves company!

As we’ve mentioned before, recovery takes a while when all new stocks are acquired at almost the same time, after a bout of profit-taking and loss cutting due to multiple sell signals. In our case the net PTP loss is -1% over an average holding time of 2 weeks. All the same it’s still worthwhile seeing this on an annualized basis. It’s a clear call to action when your portfolio starts underperforming the benchmarks.

Last Week in the Indexes… Only the S&P/TSX Venture Index gained last week among the major indexes that we report weekly, and only the Canadian small cap indexes (S&P/TSX Small Cap Index and S&P/TSX Venture Index) still have positive trend values. All of the major US indexes declined 1% or more last week.
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PTA Perspective… Trump Bump? WRONG! Trump Dump!

There are so many reasons why the business media’s attribution of the Trump election to improving stock markets is dead wrong, that it’s almost incomprehensible that they have the nerve to keep telling that story. Quite frankly, we try not to care who’s in the White House when making our investment decisions; but this week we’ll provide lots of evidence that, if anything, Trump has been more damaging to the equities markets than advantageous. It’s just too hard to sit back and accept the distorted and blatantly false media account of a “Trump Bump”.

SYNOPSIS

The markets seem invincible to all geopolitical events and economic rumblings nowadays. Even Trump’s attempt to kickstart WW3 had almost no impact on stock prices or volatility. It’s frustrating to be in a limbo, where stocks aren’t rising or falling to any significant degree. Perhaps now, more than ever, we need to be looking to invest overseas. Our discussion this week of the returns on foreign equities confirms that.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) actually turned even more this past week. We are no longer ahead of the S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR and the S&P 500 APAR values, but have a plan in place to repair that temporary setback.

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PTA Perspective… 2017 – 1st Quarter Review – Part 2 – Global Equities

Last week we gave you the macro index and sector summary of North American equities in Q1 2017. This week we continue with the performance of foreign stocks. You’ll see that there were more than a few places in the world to get far better returns on your invested capital than Canada and the US. Now we need to decide whether that pattern will continue in Q2.

SYNOPSIS

It seems that nothing can lift the volatility of stocks (as measured by VIX) from almost all-time lows. The median VIX value over the past 5 years is about 16. VIX hasn’t been above 16 since just before the American election; and then only for a couple days. Some mistakenly think low volatility is good, but it isn’t. Without volatility stocks don’t rise. They may not fall much either, but that isn’t the recipe for profits. Perhaps because of that, North American investors are moving their money into foreign equities, through regional ETFs and ADRs. Fortunately, we have the tools at our web site to facilitate your own migration, if you should choose to do so.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) actually turned negative this past week. We are no longer ahead of the S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR and the S&P 500 APAR values.

This is extremely rare, but it has happen a few times before, during the many decades that we have been relying on relative trend analysis™ (RTA) as the core screener for our investments. In this week’s TrendWatch Weekly we explain what happened and what we’re doing about it.

Last Week in the Indexes… On a one week basis, most indexes were up last week. The Russell 2000 rose 2.3% week-over-week, reversing a 2.7% drop a week earlier; and several other indexes had 1%+ moves. The gains were enough to turn all of our seven index trend values positive.

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PTA Perspective… 2017 – 1st Quarter Review

It’s hard to believe that we’re 25% of the way through 2017 already. That means that it’s time for our quarterly review, which will be split across two editions of TrendWatch Weekly (possibly even a third). This week we concentrate on the performance of North American equities… the major indexes and the sectors. Next time we’ll take a more global perspective.

Investor Confidence… The March results for the State Street Investor Confidence Index were released last week. The Global ICI increased to 95.4, up 4.2 points from February’s revised reading of 91.2.

We chart the regional results as well in the full edition of TrendWatch Weekly. Teaser: All regions were up except North America.