SYNOPSIS

Well, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finally cracked through 20,000 for the first time ever on Wednesday, January 25 (my birthday!), and stayed up there through the remainder of the week. All the same most of the major indexes are still generally moving sideways. There is quite a bit of suspense over whether the next big move will be up or down out of the current trading range.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) rose to 86% last week. We’re still well ahead of the S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR at 26%; and the S&P 500 APAR at 21%. We bought two new positions for the PTP last week, and will likely add more this week to replace four stocks sold a week earlier.

Last Week in the Indexes… On a one week basis, most changes were positive, with Canadian small caps and Nasdaq maintaining leadership positions based on trend. Most of our seven major indexes had one-week gains of +1% to +2%.

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Investor Confidence for January 2017… As usual we’ve waited until Tuesday to distribute this edition of TrendWatch Weekly, so that we can include the (last Tuesday) monthly results of the State Street Investor Confidence Index report. The Global ICI decreased just slightly to 93.8, down 0.3 points from December’s revised reading of 94.1. We have the regional results with their historical patterns as well. The European outlook is largely responsible for this month’s decline. The other regional indexes remained pretty much unchanged from December.

We like to remind you that this is not just a survey. The SSICI Global Index and the Regional Indexes reported in the full edition of TrendWatch Weekly are based on actual money flows controlled by institutional investors… between stocks (higher risk) and bonds (lower risk). 100 is the neutral point.

PTA Perspective… Using Leverage When Investing: Blessing or Curse?

While leverage should never be used indiscriminately, we think that there will often be situations where it should be considered: (1) to get more bang for your buck from very conservative investment vehicles, and (2) to increase your return dramatically when you’re convinced that the odds overwhelmingly in your favour. Keeping in mind that there are no “sure things” in the equities (or other) markets, probability can be your friend, and leverage can fatten your profits. Naturally, we also discuss the downside.

SYNOPSIS

It was another dull week in the markets, as the media obsession with the orange man with the tiny fingers left little room for other news. Let’s hope that this dissipates soon, so that the markets can re-establish direction, even if it’s down. Naturally, we’d prefer more rising prices, and with no volatility in the markets, the default direction is normally up. It’s just a matter of when.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) rose to 80% last week after we unloaded some stocks with expired uptrends. We’re still well ahead of the S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR at 23%; and the S&P 500 APAR at 16%.

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Last Week in the Indexes… On a one week basis, most changes were negative, with only the S&P/TSX Venture Index managing a small gain. The Russell 2000 fell -1.5%, which was the biggest one week loss. That was enough, however, to bring its trans ranking down to the bottom. Canadian small caps, meanwhile, are stilll near the top of the trend rankings.

PTA Perspective… Weekend Warrior Update & Checklist

We do our best to convince you each week that do-it-yourself investing doesn’t have to be difficult, but it does require a regular routine. We spend a substantial part of every weekend updating our materials, so that you should be ready for the week ahead simply by spending some time with the new data. You don’t have to wait for the newsletter, since the newest numbers in the Data & Charts Workbooks are usually posted on Saturday or occasionally Sunday. If you can set aside just an hour each weekend to track your performance, plan new purchases for the coming week, and identify stocks that should be sold, you should consistently stay ahead of the market averages. We provide a handy checklist to walk you through the details.

SYNOPSIS

It was a lacklustre week in the equities markets, and volatility remains almost non-existent, as it has for many weeks now. The rally in stocks which began a few days before the American election, has stalled again for the time being. No doubt some of this can be related to the president-elect’s future policies being shared 140 characters at a time.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) fell to 57% last week after several weeks of ups and downs. We’re still well ahead of the S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR at 27%; and the S&P 500 APAR at 21%.

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PTA Perspective… 2016 ETF Review & 2017 Outlook

Although we tend to provide more coverage of stocks than ETFs in TrendWatch Weekly, exchange traded products (ETPs, of which ETFs are the largest proportion by far) are the most viable investment class for many investors. Each ETF provides broad diversification within a single security, and they make mutual funds look like dog food by comparison. This week we walk you through some high-level statistics on what’s been happening in the ETF industry, and what we’re likely to see going forward.

SYNOPSIS

There’s an old saying that “as goes the first week of the year, so goes the month”. There’s another one that says “as goes January, so goes the year”. In recent years these indicators haven’t had a great track record, but let’s accept the gains in the first week of January 2017 for what they’re worth. Hopefully it’s an omen! There is no volatility (as measured by the VIX), and so far, continuing optimism that Trump might just deliver on at least a few of his election promises… the good ones, not the retarded ones!

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) rose last week after several weeks of declines. We’re still well ahead of the S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR at 33%; and the S&P 500 APAR at 26%.

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PTA Perspective… 2016 Year End Review – Part 2 – Global Perspective

This is Part 2 of our 2016 annual review of equity performance… this time focussing on global markets. Our report last week was generally positive of North American equities in 2016, but how do they stack up against markets in Europe, Asia and elsewhere? Spoiler alert: Canada rules! …except for Brazil and maybe Thailand.

SYNOPSIS

With a few exceptions, the last week of the year was pretty lame. But that hid the gains we’ve seen over the past few months, taking many indexes to all time highs over and over again. The Dow Jones Industrials didn’t break through 20,000 yet, but that may be just around the corner.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) retreated again last week. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR fell to 26%; and the S&P 500 APAR dropped by half to 12%.

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Last Week in the Indexes… On a one week basis, most of the major indexes were lower last week. Our Canadian small cap indexes were a notable exception. The S&P/TSX Venture Index rose 4.7% last week.

PTA Perspective… 2016 Year End Review

It’s Report Card time for 2016! All in all it was a pretty good year, although much of the gain happened toward year end. This is not unusual, however, since the seasonally best performing six months of the year (on average) begins November 1 and extends through the end of April. We have lots of charts to break that down this week.