SYNOPSIS

We had more follow through to the upside last week, as all of the major US indexes — Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, Russell 2000, and Nasdaq Composite Index — hit at least intra-day all time highs or closing highs. (VIX-vased) Volatility is almost non-existent again, so there is little to suggest that we haven’t moved back to standard bullish conditions.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) pulled back a bit to 388% from 438% last week. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR rose to 25%; and the S&P 500 APAR continued to rise as well… to 39%. We added five new stocks to the ProfiTrend Portfolio and dropped two.

Last Week in the Indexes… All of the major indexes we track were up less week except the S&P/TSX Venture Index. It’s interesting how the US small caps, led by the trend-leading Russell 2000 have left the S&P/TSX Venture Index (also small caps) at the bottom of our index trend rankings.

Seasonality… The Thanksgiving Trade
It is important to be wise online levitra canada in finding brain pills which is totally free from caffeine. Your physician may restrict you to follow this solution if generic tadalafil tablets he is searching for a remedy that can heal most of the annoying health concerns. This technology locates the infected area with pinpoint accuracy. order viagra from canada It can provide protection to the hepatic ordering viagra without prescription parenchyma, thereby adding extra layer of protection to this organ. So, did it play out with the 85% regularity that it was supposed to? Yes! Both the S&P 500 and DJIA were up on both the day before and the day after US Thanksgiving. +0.08% and +0.39% on Wednesday for S&P and DJIA respectively, and +0.31% and +0.36% on the half day of trading on Friday. These are indeed small gains unless you put a lot of money or some leverage to work, but with the odds so much in one’s favour, why not do something to reel in some cash? We played it two ways… by buying all the stocks that we were going to buy anyway late on Tuesday afternoon, and placing a simple double-or-nothing bet at a binary options web site. Just remember that your return should be normalized to determine your success. So even a small capital gain can really mushroom on an annualized basis, since your money is only tied up for two days! A 100% profit over two days (as per our two-day bet) works out to 125 X 100% = 12,500% annualized (based on roughly 250 trading days per year)!

Investor Confidence… As usual we’ve waited until Tuesday to distribute this notice and the full edition, so that we can include the (4th Tuesday) monthly results of the State Street Investor Confidence Index report. In November the Global ICI decreased just slightly to 98.9, down 0.3 points from October’s revised reading of 99.2. The “smart money” is apparently in “wait and see” mode after the US election.

We like to remind you that this is not just a survey. The SSICI Global Index and the Regional Indexes reported in the full edition are based on actual money flows among institutional investors… between stocks (higher risk) and bonds (lower risk). 100 (where we are now) is the neutral point.

PTA Perspective… Buy Low, Stay High! Are Cannabis Stocks Right for You?

We gave you a heads up last week that we had added another list of stocks to the Data & Charts Workbooks with the usual data updated every weekend. This is an experiment in how our ProfiTrend Advantage approach can be focussed on a niche market that may look promising… cannabis stocks. It is being included now as an educational exercise, because we still don’t know if or when this market may evolve from (almost) all micro-caps to including some small-caps, mid-caps and beyond. It’s super high risk for investors right now, and the volatility of individual stocks means that there will be wild price swings, which require a strong stomach and daily monitoring. But, whether you participate or not, it should be a great learning experience to watch this mini-industry over time from a winners-and-losers perspective. More detail in the full edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

The markets were well behaved again this past week, but we’re feeling even less convinced that the Trump victory has had anything to do with current bullishness. To be sure, some sectors and sub-sectors have received a boost from Trump’s election promises, but he is suddenly getting wishy-washy on many of those promises. There was a beautiful parody of this on SNL this past weekend. That aside, volatility (as measured by VIX) has been well below average this past week and may continue to drift lower.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) rose from an already high 249% previously to 438% last week. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR rose to 13% from -20% previously; and the S&P 500 APAR continued to rise as well… to 25% from 16% in our last report. A prime contributor to our PTP performance is a rapid increase in the price of cannabis stocks… something we’ve been discussing from time to time, especially since many more US states have legalized sales of marijuana in the November 8 election.

Last Week in the Indexes… All of the major indexes we track were up less week. The strong surge in the performance of US small caps (captured by the Russell 2000) over the past two weeks is somewhat difficult to explain, but the Russell 2000 leads our trend rankings again this week.
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Seasonality… The Thanksgiving Trade
Profits can be made with 80-85% regularity by simply holding stocks for the day before and after each of three US holidays (when the markets are closed). US Thanksgiving is the opportunity this week… returning 0.7% on average over the day before and the day after. Yes, you hold your investment for only two calendar days (three by the calendar). Buy what you want on Tuesday near the close, but be prepared to sell Friday near the close. The historical data is based on the S&P 500, but if you pick an investment that is performing better than the S&P 500 most of the time, that could improve your return even more. We have more to say about this in the full edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

PTA Perspective… Some Thoughts on Indexes

This week’s topic is stock indexes. We discuss why stock market indexes can be important to you, and when they can sometimes be a pain in the ass. We talk about the indexes that seem to matter most to the media and why; and the reasons why other, perhaps more useful indexes, are ignored. Finally we bring it all back to the ProfiTrend Advantage.

SYNOPSIS

Finally, it’s over! Or is it? A Clinton victory would have signalled business as usual. After all, the Obama legacy would have lived on, whether you liked it or not. But a Trump win is a different story. We now face the prospect of a loose cannon in the White House with no political experience, in charge of a country with the world’s largest military and the world’s biggest debt. All the same US stocks rose nicely last week, and we’re not complaining about that.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) rose from 36% to 249% last week. No complaints there! The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR declined to -20% from -11% previously; but the S&P 500 APAR swung from -24% to +16% over the past election week! So, how did we pull off the outstanding gain in the PTP? Well, you’ll have to read the full edition of TrendWatch Weekly to find out.

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PTA Perspective… US Election Week: Post Mortem!

Let’s not forget that before the US election, up to the previous Friday, the S&P 500 has been down for 9 days in a row… the first time that’s happened in 36 years (1980). The “fear gauge”, CBOE’s VIX, had been up 9 days in a row. The combination of the two stats had never occurred before in all of trading history. And, by just about every gauge you could find, the stock markets had been grossly oversold. So, do we give the Trump win credit for the rally last week? We don’t think so, but still, a Clinton win was supposedly “baked in” to stock prices on Monday and Tuesday, so a continuing rally on Wednesday was a shocker! By all logical arguments the DJI should have dropped around 1000 points at the open Wednesday morning, based on overnight futures trading results, after it became official that Trump had won. Something very strange happened in the four hours between Trump’s acceptance speech and the market open at 9:30am.

SYNOPSIS

New records have been set during this pre-election period, and they’re definitely not good for investors. As of Friday, the S&P 500 has been down for 9 days in a row… the first time that’s happened in 36 years (1980). If you’ve been following the “fear gauge”, CBOE’s VIX, that has been up 9 days in a row. The combination of the two stats has never occurred before in all of trading history. The fear is obviously related to the remote possibility that Trump might win. That is indeed a terrifying prospect.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) held steady last week at 36%. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR declined from near zero to -11% this past week. Meanwhile the S&P 500 APAR dropped way further, from -11% last week to -24% based on last week’s data.

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Last Week in the Indexes… All one-week results for the major indexes that we track were negative last week from -1.5% to -3%! All trend values are negative.

PTA Perspective… US Election Week: Are You Ready for the Fallout?
Since the US election will overshadow any other news worldwide, we’ve decided to get this edition of TrendWatch Weekly out early (Sunday, rather than our usual Monday target). Perhaps something in this week’s discussion of investor implications for the election outcome will spur some action on Monday or Tuesday (yes the US markets are open on Election Day). Perhaps not. As you know relative trend analysis™ (RTA) usually guides us to the most appropriate portfolio stance all year around, so this week shouldn’t be an exception. Or is it? In the full edition we hit on a number of election-related topics, so we hope that you read it ASAP. It could have an impact on what you see happen in your portfolio on Wednesday morning and throughout the rest of the week and beyond.

SYNOPSIS

It’s been another one of those weeks where we were wishing that the US election bullshit was over. With little news of significance on any other front (the business media are too busy with the election to cover any real news), the markets drifted lower again.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) declined quite a bit last week… to 36% from 104% a week earlier. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR declined from +11% in our last report to zero this past week. Meanwhile the S&P 500 APAR dropped slightly from -10% to -11%.

Needless to say, all APAR’s are now below the long term medians.

Last Week in the Indexes… All one-week results were negative last week, with the exception of a tiny gain for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. All trend values are negative again too, except for the S&P/TSX Composite Index.
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Seasonality & Investor Confidence… Both of the latest updates to these two sections just came out within the past two weeks, so we’ve included them again this time as a reminder that “smart money” investor confidence has risen over the past two months, and that there are seasonal opportunities to consider for short-term gains.

PTA Perspective… Revisions to the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS)

All of our sector analyses of stocks are carried out using the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS), which we describe in more detail this week. There has been a major change to this classification scheme as of September 1, 2016; and it’s been taking a while for it to work it’s way into the equities marketplace. GICS is used by many public and private data outlets, and the implementation of big changes takes time.

The “big change” this time is that real estate stocks have been taken out of the Financial Services top level category and now have independent status as a top level category. So there are now 11 top level sectors instead of 10. This affects indexing based on GICS and in turn ETFs based on those indexes. We walk you through more of the details in this week’s full edition of TrendWatch Weekly.