SYNOPSIS

Perhaps you had a more enlightened perspective than we did, but a quick scan of daily market performance over the course of last week didn’t inspire much confidence. So, we avoided trading. There were assorted stories coming in about the Bank of Japan and of course the US September interest rate call… the results of which, everyone knew in advance. Still, the media love to make a mountain out of a mole hill. But regardless of all that, we were pleasantly surprised that the markets were up on the week, and showed a substantial reversal to the upside among our broader indexes… the ones that weight all stocks equally. Meanwhile stock market volatility (via VIX) is so low, that it’s almost scary! No one appears to have a worry in the world right now.

Last Week in the Indexes… All of our standard set of seven major indexes were up last week… from just under 1% to just about 2.5%. The Dow Industrials trend is still at zero, but the rest are positive again.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) gained a bit last week… to 173% from 161% a week earlier. We are still well above our 5-year average, and way beyond our two benchmarks, which are now again on the plus-side of zero, after a couple weeks in the negative.

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Well, after five months of declines, the SSICI Global ICI increased to 95.5, up 5.8 points from August’s revised reading of 89.7. All of the Regional ICI’s were up except for Europe. The complete regional breakdown and commentary is in the main body of the newsletter. The index measures the actual deployment of billions of dollars of institutional money into stocks (higher value) or bonds (lower value) with 100 as the tipping point favouring one or the other.
PTA Perspective… Cash is NOT King!

Answer this question quickly… Which is riskier, owning stocks or holding cash? Amazingly, most people, even after thinking about it, will say that cash has lower risk. Many will even claim that it’s a stupid question, because the answer is so obvious. But it’s not. Stocks are indisputably lower risk than cash. Still not convinced? Well, you better read the feature article in the full edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

We’re definitely at a tipping point now, where most or all equities markets may turn negative on trend basis. We never try to predict how long that might last, but we gradually close out our holdings as the sell signals are triggered, and don’t replace them; since fewer and fewer opportunities will be available. We may even get to a point where significant profits can be made sell stocks short or buying inverse ETFs. This isn’t a panic situation. We’re just watching events unfold and reporting them back to you. If the down-turn is short-lived, we’ll keep you up to date about that too.

Last Week in the Indexes… Our index chart this week has a real mixed bag of results. During the week last week, Nasdaq had a nice gain of 2.3%, while our long-time favourites, the Canadian small caps, declined. Both the S&P/TSX Venture Index and S&P/TSX Small Cap Index were off almost -2% on a one-week basis. The S&P/TSX Composite Index dropped over a half of a percentage point, while the S&P 500 gained that much.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) slipped some more last week… to 161% from 170% a week earlier. But we are still well above our 5-year average, and way beyond our two benchmarks, which are now negative.
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PTA Perspective… The Crash of ’87: Could It Happen Again?

As we approach yet another anniversary of the infamous Crash of ’87, we’ve chosen to re-issue one of our favourite stand-alone PTA Perspectives on the events that occurred at that time. If you haven’t lived through a real stock market crash, you can only benefit from reading the story. We’ve put together as much detail as possible. The original piece has been edited and updated a bit, but all of the key ingredients are still there. If you think that the 2007-2009 market slump was a “crash”, you have no idea what a real market crash is like! This should be especially interesting to our newer subscribers. If we had invented relative trend analysis™ (RTA) before it happened, would it have helped? Find out in this week’s full edition of TrendWatch Weekly.

SYNOPSIS

So, is anyone feeling uneasy over Friday’s -2% decline in the major North American indexes? It’s a wake up call for sure, after so many weeks of sideways price moves mostly in a +/- 1% range, but hardly extraordinary. The media, not at a loss to generate an instant myth to explain it all, tell us that we are all afraid of an US interest rate hike in September (even though the futures-based odds are only 20%). Nonetheless, caution and vigilance are definitely the watch-words for this week. Media-induced hysteria still moves markets, and those who control the media profit the most. And, let’s not forget that September is typically the worst month of the year to be invested in stocks anyway. We don’t need the media to fuel that fire.

Last Week in the Indexes… Ouch! All indexes down an average of about 2% (mostly on Friday). Remarkably, the S&P/TSX Venture Index continues to buck the trend. A modest one-week gain and a trend value that is still decidedly positive.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) fell some more last week… to 170% from 195% a week earlier. But we are still well above our 5-year average, and way beyond our two benchmarks, which are now negative.

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We were ready to buy if the action early last week was positive, but that didn’t really happen. We did sell one stock though, due to an abrupt decline that triggered our volatility-based sell-threshold.

PTA Perspective… The Stock Markets Will Predict the Next US President!

Since 1928 the stock markets have predicted the winner of US presidential elections 19 times out of 22. If stock markets rise ahead of the election, the incumbent party wins. It’s as simple as that. Forget everything else. The open question is what metric to use? In this week’s edition of TrendWatch Weekly, we examine three models with similar success rates (85-90%).

SYNOPSIS

We’re rolling into September… historically the worst month of the year to be invested in equities. On average all sectors end the month lower than they began. But, not every September is a loser across the board, and relative trend analysis™ (RTA) is designed to find the bright spots, if there are any to be found.

Last Week in the Indexes… After almost all indexes retreated a week earlier, all of them bounced back last week, with several gains of over 1% on the week. All trend values remain positive. The S&P/TSX Venture Index remains the trend leader.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) fell a bit last week… to 195% from 214% a week earlier. But we are still well above our 5-year average, and way beyond our two benchmarks.
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There was no trading in the PTP last week. We currently have far too much cash, and will be looking to deploy some of that this week.

PTA Perspective… Re-Visiting the Toolbox

We have a fairly low key topic this week. It’s simply a tour of our current web site… including recently added features and tools. This is for the benefit of new subscribers and those who may not have thoroughly explored the web site in a while. As usual our core weekly updates include this newsletter, TrendWatch Weekly, and the latest numbers in the Data & Charts Workbook, but there is a growing list of other tools as well. Some of those we’ve mentioned before, but we haven’t provided you with much guidance on how to take advantage of them. We hope to remedy that this week.