SYNOPSIS

The North American markets have slowed their advance a bit, but there’s certainly no cause for concern just yet. Gold stocks have pulled back relatively sharply this past week as the advance in the price of bullion has stalled. The stocks are far more volatile than bullion, so small moves up or down in the precious metal result in large moves up or down in the stocks.

Last Week in the Indexes… All seven major indexes that we track had continuing gains last week, with one exception. The S&P/TSX Small Cap Index dipped again last week… this time by a full percentage point. The small cap advantage, that we’ve seen for months, appears to be dissipating, while Nasdaq stocks are improving.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) finally retreated from 510% last week, to 337%. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR is at 33% (the same as last week), and the S&P 500 APAR declined slightly to 37% from 39% a week earlier. With our current chart format below, you can see the five-year median results for these three measures.

With no trading in the PTP this past week, our “speedometer” is reflecting a speed-bump in our heavy exposure to gold stocks. And, no, that isn’t an argument for diversification.
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PTA Perspective… Happy 400th Edition to Us! We’re celebrating! Sort of. This is somewhere just past our 400th edition of TrendWatch Weekly! But actually, that’s just a small part of the story. This is roughly our 400th edition, but only since we switch to our current WordPress blogging platform in early 2008. Our story, however, goes back to about 1997. We began our humble efforts with a weekly report on technology stocks, then spun-off TSE 300 TrendWatch Weekly in 1998 to include trend and consistency values for all 300 of those stocks. Tallying everything up, across software platforms that have come and gone, we’ve probably published over 1000 editions of some variation on TrendWatch Weekly.

The word “blog” had yet to be invented back near the beginning, and it was quite a task doing weekly updates. The whole web site had to be edited weekly. We have more of our story in the body of this week’s edition, and also introduce some new features at the PTA web site that you might find useful.

Investor Confidence Index for July 2016… SSICI Dips below 100 for First Time since Fall 2013
The latest State Street Investor Confidence Index (SSICI) has just been reported for July 2016. The Global ICI decreased to 98, down 7.7 points from June’s revised reading of 105.7. The decline in sentiment was driven by a decrease in the European ICI from 100.3 to 92.4. The North American ICI also dropped by 5.9 points to 99.9 along with the Asian ICI falling 5.2 points to 108.

SYNOPSIS

The North American markets continue to march higher leaving new all-time highs for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials in their wake. Brett talk won’t stop; but at least it’s being totally ignored by investors, which is just as well.

Last Week in the Indexes… All seven major indexes that we track had continuing gains last week, with one exception. Oddly the S&P/TSX Small Cap Index dipped just 0.1% over the week, even while the S&P/TSX Venture Index continued to move higher. The trend value rankings continue to favour small caps, as they have for many months now.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) set another new record as of last Friday at 510%, above last week’s 490%. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR is up 10 points to 33%, and the S&P 500 APAR rose to 39% from 31% a week earlier. With our current chart format below, we include the five-year median results for these three measures.

We really didn’t expect another gain after last week’s record high, but we’ll take it for the “high-speed profits” it represents.
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PTA Perspective… The Folly of Forecasting

Do you pay much attention to analysts’ forecasts, when it comes to where the indexes might be by year-end, or a year from now? How about the price targets they set for individual stocks? How about consensus estimates, where forecasts from a number of analysts are combined? If you do any of those things, you should quit wasting your time. We explain why from several perspectives.

SYNOPSIS

The business media still haven’t made up another scary story to tell, so coverage of the Brexit bullshit continues, even while international equities markets push higher. In fact the leading equities index in the UK, the FTSE 100 is up +3.68% since the close on referendum day, June 23. That compares with a meagre +0.5% for the S&P/TSX Composite Index and -0.1% for the S&P 500. So, tell us again how those major UK companies will move to Europe, and/or see their revenues and profits decline sharply? Obviously stock buyers don’t agree. More on this in our PTA Perspective feature.

Last Week in the Indexes… All seven major indexes that we track had continuing gains last week… from 1.1% (DJI) to 4.6% (S&P/TSX Small Cap Index). All index trend values are positive. Small caps continue to gain in value far faster than large caps.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) rose to a record-breaking 490% as of Friday from an already staggering 242% in the last report. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR dropped a few points to 23%, and the S&P 500 APAR, rose from 20% to 31%. With our new chart format, we include the five-year median results for these three measures. Our new all-time high is due to a confluence of positive factors, which we explain in detail in the ProfiTrend Portfolio section.

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PTA Perspective… New Bull Market in British Stocks?

Although we didn’t see any media coverage, our own calculations tell us that the Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 Index (FTSE 100, pronounced “Footsie 100”) has entered a new bull market as of Friday. Think about that, Brexit whiners! More details in this edition of TrendWatch Weekly.