SYNOPSIS

What a difference 4% makes? It was roughly 52% Leave, 48% Stay in the Brexit vote last Thursday. Although we played down the net impact (on North Americans) for either outcome last week, it was perhaps inevitable that the somewhat surprising Leave decision would rock the world on Friday. Let’s just hope that the media don’t create even more hysteria, and drive even more investors out of the markets again this week. Logically Friday’s reaction was grossly overdone. More on this in the full edition.

Here’s a 60 second video from Washington Post on the Brexit impact on (North) Americans. It actually looks net positive overall!

Last Week in the Indexes… Due mainly to Friday’s plunge, all but one of the seven major indexes that we track were lower last week. The feisty Canadian S&P/TSX Small Cap Index managed to buck the trend with a 1.1% gain over the week. Without digging in, we’re relatively confident that smaller players in the gold mining section had some nice gains overall.

PTP… This may surprise you! Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) actually rose to 213% from 195% in the last report. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR eased back a point to 12%, but the S&P 500 APAR went negative to -10% from +10% a week earlier.
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We’re naturally pleased with our results! Our secret: avoiding diversification! We have lots of gold and silver stocks… pretty much the only beneficiary of Friday’s carnage.

PTA Perspective… Diversification is for the Ignorant!

From previous discussions you know that we have mixed feelings about Warren Buffet and his holding company Berkshire Hathaway (BRK). Buffet is a lovable old codger with a traditional family-style sense of humour, and an “aw-shucks” humility that people love in a billionaire. But that’s just his public facade, and not an investment strategy. We’ve often talked about it being impossible for the average investor to “invest like Buffet”, unless that means just buying shares of BRK. That’s questionable too, as we’ve pointed out before. Anyway, we do know that he has an amazing collection of “one-liners” that do represent good investment practices. And, we can’t agree more with the one above! That is this week’s PTA Perspective topic. We explore the stupidity of blind diversification for diversification’s sake in detail, placing emphasis on the fact that diversification always reduces your profit potential as an investor.

Seasonality… Last week we discussed some seasonal trades that spanned July to include other months (pre- and post-July). This week we lay out the basic stats for July alone based on historical results. Spoiler alert… July is mediocre for stocks in general, especially Nasdaq stocks. Energy and Materials stocks are expected to do well, but it appears that these two sectors have already had a decent run, especially since oil bottomed-out and started rising quite some time ago.