SYNOPSIS

What a difference 4% makes? It was roughly 52% Leave, 48% Stay in the Brexit vote last Thursday. Although we played down the net impact (on North Americans) for either outcome last week, it was perhaps inevitable that the somewhat surprising Leave decision would rock the world on Friday. Let’s just hope that the media don’t create even more hysteria, and drive even more investors out of the markets again this week. Logically Friday’s reaction was grossly overdone. More on this in the full edition.

Here’s a 60 second video from Washington Post on the Brexit impact on (North) Americans. It actually looks net positive overall!

Last Week in the Indexes… Due mainly to Friday’s plunge, all but one of the seven major indexes that we track were lower last week. The feisty Canadian S&P/TSX Small Cap Index managed to buck the trend with a 1.1% gain over the week. Without digging in, we’re relatively confident that smaller players in the gold mining section had some nice gains overall.

PTP… This may surprise you! Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) actually rose to 213% from 195% in the last report. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR eased back a point to 12%, but the S&P 500 APAR went negative to -10% from +10% a week earlier.
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We’re naturally pleased with our results! Our secret: avoiding diversification! We have lots of gold and silver stocks… pretty much the only beneficiary of Friday’s carnage.

PTA Perspective… Diversification is for the Ignorant!

From previous discussions you know that we have mixed feelings about Warren Buffet and his holding company Berkshire Hathaway (BRK). Buffet is a lovable old codger with a traditional family-style sense of humour, and an “aw-shucks” humility that people love in a billionaire. But that’s just his public facade, and not an investment strategy. We’ve often talked about it being impossible for the average investor to “invest like Buffet”, unless that means just buying shares of BRK. That’s questionable too, as we’ve pointed out before. Anyway, we do know that he has an amazing collection of “one-liners” that do represent good investment practices. And, we can’t agree more with the one above! That is this week’s PTA Perspective topic. We explore the stupidity of blind diversification for diversification’s sake in detail, placing emphasis on the fact that diversification always reduces your profit potential as an investor.

Seasonality… Last week we discussed some seasonal trades that spanned July to include other months (pre- and post-July). This week we lay out the basic stats for July alone based on historical results. Spoiler alert… July is mediocre for stocks in general, especially Nasdaq stocks. Energy and Materials stocks are expected to do well, but it appears that these two sectors have already had a decent run, especially since oil bottomed-out and started rising quite some time ago.

SYNOPSIS

Last Week in the Indexes… All of the seven major North American market indexes that we track were down last week, from a little less than 0.0% to -1.9%. As has been the case for quite some time now, the losses were greater on the US side of the border.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) held steady at 195%, compared to 194% in the last report. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR declined to 13% from 28% previously, while the S&P 500 APAR dropped to 10% from 21% a week earlier.

We’re naturally pleased with the performance of the PTP. You may recall that the four-year average for charts like the one above places the PTP APAR at about 100%, compared to 16% for S&P 500 and 9% for S&P/TSX Composite Index. We’re now tracking at nearly double our long term average. Our secret: avoid diversification!

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PTA Perspective… Putting BREXIT in Perspective

The Brexit referendum on Thursday has been one of those intensely annoying world events that equity investors have to contend with. While the media try to remain balanced in terms of presenting the pros and cons, the fact that they are spending so much time on this story implies that it is important to investors everywhere. In reality the decision either way is probably totally inconsequential to the average North American investor. There may be a knee-jerk reaction to the results on Thursday in the equities markets, but that would only be the impact of the excessive media coverage that we’ve experienced. We explore this in more detail in this week’s edition.

Seasonality… This week we discuss some seasonal trades that span July to include other months. As you may recall we’re within the six-month span of unfavourable market conditions. Nonetheless, we’ve been making some excellent profits, since we were supposed to flee equities on May 1.

SYNOPSIS

Last Week in the Indexes… During the previous week all of the major North American indexes that we track were up, except for a small loss in the DJIA. This past week was more mixed, with the Canadian small cap indexes, S&P/TSX Venture Index and S&P/TSX Small Cap Index, continuing to rise once again, while large cap indexes… S&P/TSX Composite Index, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index fell. The DJIA managed a tiny gain. All this left the S&P/TSX Venture Index still climbing at 1.7% per week and the S&P/TSX Small Cap Index climbing 1.1% per week.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) backed off a bit to 194%, compared to 217% in the last report. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR declined to 28% from 40% previously, while the S&P 500 APAR dropped to 21% from 27% a week earlier.

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The correlation between oil prices and general stock prices that has persisted for several months is breaking down and may well go away. It didn’t make sense in the first place, but we suspect that the media played a role in keeping the myth alive. In our discussion of this matter we stress the importance of always trying to identify misinformation, while at the same time translating misinformation into profitable trades. Our inherent desire to always make sense of everything can sometimes work against us. Spoiler alert: The long term average correlation between the price of oil and the price of stocks is zero!

Investor Confidence & Seasonality… We’ve left the State Street Investor Confidence Index results for May in this edition. It shows just modest declines in the allocation of “smart money” to equities during May. As for our calendar effects section, we’ll update that next week, as we prepare for what July might have in store. So far the “sell in May and go away” strategy would have been a mistake. In just over a month since April 30, the S&P 500 is up +1.6% and the S&P/TSX Composite Index +2.0%. Those may seem small, but they’re not bad for such a short time, given normal daily price swings. The historical average gains for May are +0.2% for the S&P 500 and +1.5% for the S&P/TSX Composite Index. For June the S&P 500 is normally flat at 0.0% and the S&P/TSX Composite Index drops -0.3% on average.

SYNOPSIS

As of the close on Friday, the S&P/TSX Composite Index was 20% above the bear market low in January. That signals a brand new bull market, if you believe these arbitrary thresholds to be meaningful. Does that mean that we’re on our way to the previous bull market high of 16,653 or even higher, from our current level of 14,227? Perhaps, but it’s certainly not going to happen quickly, given the anemic trend value of this heavily followed Canadian index.

Still, perhaps it’ll reverse the major outflows of investor money from equities over the past few months. It was interesting to watch the dominos fall on Friday, starting with a horrible US jobs report. That knocked over the likelihood of a rate hike in the US in June, which toppled the US dollar. That in turn drove up the price of gold (and gold stocks), and most other currencies. The Canadian dollar rose a full cent. If only it were that simple to explain things on a normal trading day.

Last Week in the Indexes… Last week we reported that our long-standing winners, the S&P/TSX Small Cap Index and the S&P/TSX Venture Index dropped sharply. Well, both of them came back with a vengeance last week, to wipe out the previous week’s losses and then some. Trend-wise, they’re back on top on a trend basis, followed by the Russell 2000 and the S&P/TSX Composite Index. The Nasdaq, S&P 500 and DJIA are all underperforming the rest on a trend basis.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) surged ahead to 217%, compared to 163% in the last report… enough to require a re-scaling of our chart below. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR also rose 5% from the previous week, while the S&P 500 APAR was up just 2% a week earlier.
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PTA Perspective… Brand New Canadian Bull Market!
This week we talk some more about the new bull market in Canadian stocks, and the overall implications of the labels and thresholds of bull and bear markets. Do they really matter? We’ll tell you in this week’s issue.

State Street Investor Confidence Index for May 2016… It’s that time of the month again. The latest State Street Investor Confidence Index has just been reported (for May). This is not an opinion poll from the man in the street. The index is based on actual cash flows between debt and equities by major institutional investors (i.e. “the smart money”). The Global ICI decreased to 106.6, down just 2.0 points from April’s revised reading of 108.6. The decline in sentiment was driven by a decrease in the North American ICI from 114 to 109. By contrast, the Asian ICI increased by 4.1 points to 112.1 while the European ICI rose from 95.4 to 96.8.

Seasonality… since we’ve already published the key stats for June over the past few weeks, we focus this time on the Memorial Day holiday trade and others like it. We report the results of the Canadian and US versions of the trade for this year, and go on to discuss why neither very short term or very long term calendar effects are useful. We still realize the value of putting everyday trading in a seasonality perspective, but caution about putting too much weight on regularly occurring patterns.