SYNOPSIS

Last Week… Our long-standing favourites, the S&P/TSX Small Cap Index and the S&P/TSX Venture Index dropped sharply last week, while all of the other indexes had nice gains of up to 3.4%.

PTP… Our PTP APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) pulled back to 163%, compared to 197% in the last report… as some of our precious metal stocks retreated. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR rose a bit to 35% from the previous week’s 33%, and the S&P 500 APAR moved nicely up to 29% from 5% the previous week.

PTA Perspective… Understand Your Indexes: Happy 120th Birthday, Dow Jones Industrial Average!
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Yes, May 26 was the 120th birthday of the existence of the Dow Industrial Average index. Starting with 12 components in 1896, the list never grew any high than the current 30. At the DJIA’s inception, Industrials were the highly speculative sector, as Information Technology stocks are today. If you wanted to risk your money on growth stocks, you bought US Leather, Tennessee Coal & Iron, or Distilling & Cattle Feeding… to name just a few of the original dozen. Let us walk you through some more history of the Dow and remind you how indexes should always be an important reference point with any investment strategy.

ETF Trading Simulation… Although we were a little slow to notice, Horizons Exchanged Traded Funds has its 6th annual ETF trading competition well under way, but it’s not too late to sign up and see how well you can do over the remaining four weeks. At least you’ll start out well ahead of those who have been losing money since trading started May 9.

It’s free to enter, but there are very real $500 cash prizes weekly and a grand prize of $7500 for the winner and $2500 for the runner-up. Click here for the rules & sign-up info. It’s a trading simulation that works like a real trading account. You start with $100,000 (in fictitious dollars of course), and see how fast you can raise your portfolios value before the end. You can trade about 500 different Canadian ETFs (not just the Horizons family of funds). We have a few more details in the full version of TrendWatch Weekly this week.

SYNOPSIS

Last Week… The three Canadian indexes we track for our weekly summary all rose last week. The US results were more mixed. The DJI and Nasdaq now have trend values of zero, and the S&P and Russell 2000 are close to that… at 0.2% and 0.1% respectively.

PTP… Our PTP APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) is up to 197%, compared to 176% last week. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR fell to 33% from the previous week’s 41%, and the S&P 500 APAR pulled back one percentage point to 5%.

Clearly, money can still be made in an environment where the major indexes are moving sideways to down.
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PTA Perspective… Staying Sane and Sensible in Uncertain Times
There’s an old saying that “investors climb a wall of worry”. All that worry makes sense, of course, when the media are spreading gloom-and-doom 80% of the time. Why? Gloom-and-doom keeps viewers and readers tuned-in, and the number of eyeballs tuned in determines how much they can charge for advertising dollars. It’s just another supply and demand equation… this one based on emotion. In this case, however, there isn’t a whole lot to be enthusiastic about, if you look at overall global markets.

It’s a pity though that a lot of these global reports leave out the Canadian major indexes. In the sea of red (i.e. pink) above, Canada would stand out with a +8% year-to-date figure, and investors worldwide would be blown away, if they saw the S&P/TSX Venture Index’s +30% year-to-date in that chart above. This week we bring you much more on putting everything in perspective, so as to make rational investment decisions. After all “perspective” is all about the “relative” in relative trend analysis™ (RTA) .

SYNOPSIS

Big Picture… The rally from mid-February has run quite a distance, while the media are just finally acknowledging that it happened. We’re pleased to have alerted you early enough to get heavily invested along the way, as we were. We may be near a temporary pause in this long-running bull market, but as usual we don’t pretend to know what’s going to happen next. With a downturn now or in the near future, we’ll simply make an orderly exit, with most of our profits over the past three months intact. That’s the beauty of relative trend analysis™ (RTA) .

Last Week… The one-week results for the seven major indexes that we track in the newsletter have returned to what we’ve seen for quite a while now… Advantage Canada! The three Canadian indexes all rose, the four US indexes all declined. Naturally that left the index trends favouring Canada too. Mind you Nasdaq is the only US index with a negative stock trend so far.

PTP… Our PTP APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) is up to 176%, compared to 158% last week. Our S&P/TSX Composite Index benchmark gained also, while the S&P 500 APAR pulled back.
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PTA Perspective… Adding Ratios to your Investment Toolbox
Yes, we encounter ratios all the time in financial publications and investor data sources… Price/Earnings, Price Sales, Price/Book Value, Sales/Employee, etc. But have you ever thought about creating your own, or looking into some of the more exotic ratios that some professional investors have found very useful? If not, maybe it’s time you did. This week we show you how it’s done, and also talk about some of the spin-off benefits of a ratio-oriented approach.

Seasonality… Every year we try to re-assure investors that the “Sell in May and Go Away” phenomenon is overdone. Stocks may very well perform better in November through April than May through October, but there are seasonal trends to take advantage of during the summer, and exceptions to the usual calendar effect pattern that we can’t even anticipate yet. Relative trend analysis™ (RTA) will find them. We’ve already laid down the outlook for May overall and by sectors, so this week we extend the analysis to multi-month favourable patterns that we might expect through these “unfavourable six months”.

SYNOPSIS

Big Picture… It was finally time for the markets to take a breather last week to digest some of the large run-up we’ve experienced since mid-February. Probabilistically, however, the argument remains strong for being heavily invested in equities. It takes more than one off-week to end a rally with the momentum that this one has.

Last Week… All of the standard indexes that we report in TrendWatch Weekly were lower last week… to varying degrees. It wasn’t a simple US vs Canada thing like you read about here last week. One week losses varied from -0.2% for the DJI to -2.3% for the Russell 2000. Trends for Canadian stocks are still outperforming their American counterparts, although so far only the trend of the Nasdaq Composite Index has turned negative.

PTP… Our PTP APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) is at 158%, compared to 209% last week. Our comparison benchmarks also retreated last week.
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PTA Perspective… Learn How to Sell, Before Learning How to Buy!
This may be the first time we’ve bluntly came out and said it, but if you’re determined to earn lots of money by investing in equities, learn how to sell before you go to work on picking stocks that will outperform the markets. The secret to success is all about knowing when to sell your losers. The winners will take care of themselves.

Seasonality… We didn’t really get into the “Sell in May and go away” story last week (an oversight), so we’ll bring you up to speed in this edition of TrendWatch Weekly. In short there is abundant evidence that over many decades, the markets perform better during November through April than May through October. Some investors go as far as only holding equities in the most profitable six months, and taking a six month vacation in the summer. If you take a deeper look, however, the price action between May 1 and the end of October in any given year is anything from consistently flat to down across the six months. There are numerous opportunities to rake in some gains. Check out the details in this week’s edition. We have summary stats of typical market performance for May as well.

SYNOPSIS

Big Picture… The North American equities markets continue to rally. Canadian small-caps remain the year-to-date winner so far, by a wide margin.

Last Week… All the major US indexes fell over the past trading week. Canadian stock indexes were higher across the board.

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PTA Perspective… What’s New in the Buffeteria?

How do you feed lunch to 40,000 people? That was my question as I watched much of the annual Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) annual general meeting and carnival on Saturday… webcast live from Omaha on this past Saturday, 10am ‘till about 5:30pm (ET). I still don’t have the answer, but I will share some highlights from that session, and trash a few more myths about Buffet and the unsupportable claims that he may be the world’s greatest investor. (By the way, if you want to sit down and watch the seven hours of coverage, here is a replay that Yahoo will probably leave up for a while.)
Investor Confidence… We published the latest State Street Investor Confidence Index for April last week. That section of our report will remain the same now until the end of May, since this is a monthly report. There was a pull-back in April from the large jump in March, but the current ICI is still above January and February levels. The smart money hasn’t abandoned stocks just yet.